The Elephant in the Room: Credit Default Swaps

Studies show that people often fear the wrong things. We are terrified of things which probably won’t hurt us, but blissfully unconcerned with things that might really kill us (see this, this and this). So we put a tremendous amount of energy into solving non-problems, and get blindsided by things that we don’t know about or which we are too afraid to even think about.

The same applies to the economic crisis.

For example, the market for credit default swaps is larger than the entire world economy.

Credit default swaps – which were largely responsible for bringing down Bear Stearns, AIG, WaMu and other mammoth corporations – are now being taken out against the U.S. government.

So you’d think that politicians trying to prop up the teetering U.S. economy would want to cancel credit default swaps, or at least declare their value is somewhere near zero.

Nope . . . not even on their discussion list, even though it is the real economic crisis.

Instead, they are proposing things which most experts say will actually harm the economy.

Call congress and tell them to stop their political posturing, stop ignoring the derivatives elephant in the room, and either do something useful or nothing at all.

Posted by George Washington at 1:08 PM
Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Source: George Washington’s Blog

Why Paulson has not explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people

Related:
“An open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention,” Paulson said 18 months ago.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declared that the current turmoil in markets and financial institutions ultimately will “make things better.” (September 15, 2008)

The mystery has been solved

For nearly a year, we have been asking ourselves why the investors and foreign banks that bought up hundreds of billions of dollars of worthless mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from US investment banks have not taken legal action against these same banks or initiated a boycott of US financial products to prevent more people from getting ripped off?

Now we know the answer. It’s because, behind the scenes, Henry Paulson and Co. were working out a deal to dump the whole trillion dollar mess on the US taxpayer. That’s what this whole $700 billion boondoggle is all about; wiping out the massive debts that were generated in the biggest incident of fraud in history.

Rep Brad Sherman explained it like this last night to Larry Kudlow:

“It (The bill) provides hundreds of billions of dollars of bailouts to foreign investors. It provides no real control of Paulson’s power. There is a critique board but not really a board that can step in and change what he does. It’s a $700 billion program run by a part-time temporary employee and there is no limit on million dollar a month salaries……. It’s very clear. The Bank of Shanghai can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision to say if it wasn’t owned by an American entity even a subsidiary, but at least an entity in the US, the Treasury can’t buy it. It was rejected.

The bill is very clear. Assets now held in China and London can be sold to US entities on Monday and then sold to the Treasury on Tuesday. Paulson has made it clear he will recommend a veto of any bill that contained a clear provision that said if Americans did not own the asset on September 20th that it can’t be sold to the Treasury. Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to bail out foreign investors. They know it, they demanded it and the bill has been carefully written to make sure it can happen.”

So, why hasn’t the Treasury Secretary explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people? Could it be that he knows that his $700 billion bailout would end up like the Hindenburg, vanishing in sheets of flames?

Read moreWhy Paulson has not explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people

U.S. Stocks Plunge After House Votes Against Bailout Plan

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks plunged and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled the most since 1987 after the House of Representatives voted down a $700 billion plan to rescue the financial system.

Sovereign Bancorp Inc. tumbled 66 percent and National City Corp. slid 52 percent, leading financial shares in the S&P 500 to an 11 percent slide. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets sank 6 percent, the most since its creation in 1970

“It’s pretty much a nightmare,” said Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages $5 billion in San Antonio. “This is the worst we’ve seen it since the credit mess started. Until we know exactly why they didn’t pass it, we’re going to be selling off for a while.”

The S&P 500 sank as much as 87.02 points, or 7.2 percent, to 1,125.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 631.13, or 5.6 percent, to 10,512 at 2:09 p.m. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 148.4, or 6.8 percent, to 2,034.94.

Read moreU.S. Stocks Plunge After House Votes Against Bailout Plan

Treasuries Are Dead Money With Yields Below Inflation

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — The rally in U.S. Treasuries may be running out of steam after yields fell to the lowest since Franklin D. Roosevelt was president.

Renewed concern about the stability of the banking system sparked a run on Treasuries that drove bill rates down to 0.02 percent. Concern is so widespread that investors are buying 30- year bonds even though their yields are the furthest below inflation since at least 1980.

“It’s like the Mark Twain quote, `I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money,”’ said James Evans, a senior vice president at New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. who helps oversee $15 billion in fixed- income assets.

Read moreTreasuries Are Dead Money With Yields Below Inflation

Bailout failure will cause US crash

The bailout has already failed, because it cannot not fail. Now nobody will laugh anymore at Ron Paul who predicted all of this chaos a long time ago.

Do you remember this article? Fortis Bank Predicts US Financial Market Meltdown Within Weeks
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The US stock market could suffer a devastating crash with shares losing a third of their value this week if Hank Paulson’s financial bailout plan fails, US Treasury officials have warned.

The financial system could face a meltdown of 1929 proportions unless US politicians succeed in their efforts for a $700bn rescue scheme, experts added.

The warning came as Republicans and Democrats met in Washington for a rare weekend debating session to attempt to seal agreement on the contentious plan, aimed at preventing a long-lasting recession in the US.

Officials close to Paulson are privately painting a far bleaker portrait of the fragility of the global economy than that advanced by President George W Bush in his televised address last week.

One Republican said that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john.” He added: “We could see falls of 3,000 or 4,000 points on the Dow [the New York market that currently trades at around 11,000]. That could happen in just a couple of days.

“What’s being put around behind the scenes is that we’re looking at 1930s stuff. We’re looking at catastrophe, huge, amazing catastrophe. Everybody is extraordinarily scared. It’s going to be really, really nasty.”

Read moreBailout failure will cause US crash

September 15, 2008 – Bush: Economy strong enough to handle turmoil

How can anyone trust Bush and Paulson with a $ 700.000.000.000 bailout?
They either lie every time they open their mouth or they have set a new world record for unlimited ignorance.

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WASHINGTON -The Bush administration signaled strongly today that troubled Wall Street should not expect more rescues from Washington.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declared that the current turmoil in markets and financial institutions ultimately will “make things better.”

By Associated Press
Monday, September 15, 2008

Source: Boston Herald

Markets face major crash if US bail-out plan collapses

There will be a depression anyway, but if the bailout “succeeds” there will be a complete meltdown in the not too distant future. Again the elite is pressing the fear button.
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World markets depend on Paulson’s plan Photo: GETTY

London shares could lose a fifth of their value and the money market faces collapse unless US politicians succeed with their financial bail-out plan, it has been warned.

A leading investor predicted that the FTSE 100 could drop by as much as 1,000 points on Monday if Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s $700bn (£380bn) plan fails. Such a fall would come close to matching the stock market crash of 1987.

The warning came as markets lurched their way to the end of another fraught week amid fears that the White House rescue operation could be derailed in Congress by conservative Republicans.

Read moreMarkets face major crash if US bail-out plan collapses

Bailout can’t hide it – the United States is broke

By Chris Powell

CHRIS POWELL IS MANAGING EDITOR OF THE JOURNAL INQUIRER IN MANCHESTER.

Even leading Republicans in Congress, including presidential nominee Sen. John McCain, recoiled from Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson’s proposal to take absolute power over $700 billion to be borrowed by the federal government and used to purchase every sort of bad debt without ever having to answer for it – not to the courts, not to regulatory agencies, and only occasionally and incidentally to Congress itself.

The bad-debt bailout would be the biggest government patronage program in history and would amount to declaring martial law over the U.S. financial system and economy. Even if such martial law is necessary, its implementation should be put in democratic hands – a non-partisan agency with full transparency, statutory standards for its purchases, and close accountability to Congress.

All the same, even if it can work – that is, prop up insolvent financial institutions – the Treasury’s proposal is still a proclamation of the collapse of the whole U.S. financial system. Even if some financial institutions are saved, the collapse will manifest itself in other ways, probably ways more damaging to the public. For who cares if Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley endure if the issuance of $700 billion more in government bonds drives interest rates way up, diverts credit from the private economy, devalues the already sinking dollar, and sends commodity prices soaring again?

In that case the financial class will have won another battle in its long war against the producing class. It will be again as was said about the maneuvers of the Second Bank of the United States two centuries ago: “The bank was saved; only the people were ruined.”

Injecting throughout the world financial system their bogus and unregulated financial instruments, like collateralized debt obligations and credit-default swaps, the big New York financial houses have taken the world economy hostage. The president and Congress should strive to save the hostages, not the kidnappers.

But the president and Congress have participated eagerly with the kidnappers in the total corruption of the financial system.

They have staffed the regulatory agencies largely from Wall Street and then diminished financial regulation.

They have let the financial houses finance presidential and congressional campaigns.

They have watched haplessly as accounting firms and credit-rating agencies engaged in conflict of interest and failed to do their jobs over and over again even as corporate scandal followed corporate scandal.

They have waged mistaken imperial war not with taxes but with huge amounts borrowed from abroad, making the country hostage to foreign nations, including some with hostile interests.

They have approved the government’s falsification of inflation data and its surreptitious suppression of the price of gold so that interest rates could be set below the inflation rate, the government and everyone else could borrow more at lower interest, and the public would not become alarmed by monetary debasement.

Now the U.S. government is conjuring into existence via a few computer keystrokes fantastic, virtually inconceivable amounts of money. Unreal as these amounts are, they will be claims on the real goods and services of the country, and, if the rest of the world wants to keep playing along, which is doubtful, claims on the real goods and services of the rest of the world as well.

The purpose of all this will be to save the people who happen to be in charge of the payments system and to save the propertied class generally. But people without many assets, people who don’t earn enough to own housing, people who could gain from lower housing prices and lower prices of everything else, are not even in the government’s equation.

The country is simply busted. Its financial obligations are unpayable, its asset prices are illusions, and the great undertaking in Washington and New York is to preserve those illusions rather than face reality. If the price of preserving those illusions is $700 billion – and of course it is more likely to run into the trillions – could it really be more expensive to dispense with the illusions now? After all, instead of rescuing financial institutions that disregarded risk, the government just as easily could keep the country going by sending checks to everyone every month – as it already sends Social Security checks to retirees.

But as long as the government keeps paying ransom, the financial class will keep taking the country hostage.

Published on 9/26/2008

Source: The Day

Hundreds of Economists Urge Congress Not to Rush on Rescue Plan

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — More than 150 prominent U.S. economists, including three Nobel Prize winners, urged Congress to hold off on passing a $700 billion financial market rescue plan until it can be studied more closely.

In a letter yesterday to congressional leaders, 166 academic economists said they oppose Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan because it’s a “subsidy” for business, it’s ambiguous and it may have adverse market consequences in the long term. They also expressed alarm at the haste of lawmakers and the Bush administration to pass legislation.

Read moreHundreds of Economists Urge Congress Not to Rush on Rescue Plan

Bailout Could Deepen Crisis, CBO Chief Says

Asset Sales May Lead to Write-Downs, Insolvencies, Orszag Tells Congress


Peter R. Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office, testifies on Capitol Hill yesterday. (By Brendan Hoffman — Getty Images)

The director of the Congressional Budget Office said yesterday that the proposed Wall Street bailout could actually worsen the current financial crisis.

During testimony before the House Budget Committee, Peter R. Orszag — Congress’s top bookkeeper — said the bailout could expose the way companies are stowing toxic assets on their books, leading to greater problems.

“Ironically, the intervention could even trigger additional failures of large institutions, because some institutions may be carrying troubled assets on their books at inflated values,” Orszag said in his testimony. “Establishing clearer prices might reveal those institutions to be insolvent.”

Read moreBailout Could Deepen Crisis, CBO Chief Says

$5 Trillion Cash Pool Needed to Stop Rout, Ohmae Says

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson‘s $700 billion plan to buy devalued assets from financial companies is “a joke” because it doesn’t go far enough to calm markets, said Kenichi Ohmae, president of Business Breakthrough Inc.

Ohmae, nicknamed “Mr. Strategy” during his 23 years as a McKinsey & Co. partner, called for a $5 trillion “international facility” to be made available to financial institutions. The system could be modeled on one used by Sweden during its banking crisis in the early 1990s, he said.

“This is a liquidity crisis,” Ohmae said at an investor forum hosted by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, the regional broking arm of Credit Agricole SA, in Hong Kong yesterday. “The liquidity has to be so big that people won’t get panicky.”

Read more$5 Trillion Cash Pool Needed to Stop Rout, Ohmae Says

Bernanke Signals U.S. Should Pay More for Bad Debt

Hey it’s taxpayers money, so the higher the price the better.
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Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, Sept. 23, 2008. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg News

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled that the government should buy devalued assets at above-market values to make its proposed $700 billion rescue package most effective in combating the financial crisis.

“Accounting rules require banks to value many assets at something close to a very low fire-sale price rather than the hold-to-maturity price,” Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee today. “If the Treasury bids for and then buys assets at a price close to the hold-to-maturity price, there will be substantial benefits.”

Bernanke’s remarks, an unusual departure from his prepared testimony, come as lawmakers and the Bush administration negotiate a rescue plan aimed at easing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The Fed chief said paying prices higher than the bad assets would fetch in the open market would help “unfreeze” credit markets and aid the economy.

Read moreBernanke Signals U.S. Should Pay More for Bad Debt

FBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown

WASHINGTON: The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration, The Associated Press has learned.

Two law enforcement officials said Tuesday the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and insurer American International Group Inc. Additionally, a senior law enforcement official said Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. also is under investigation.

The inquiries will focus on the financial institutions and the individuals that ran them, the senior law enforcement official said.

Read moreFBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown

China Shuns Paulson’s Free Market Push as Meltdown Burns U.S.

“An open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention,” Paulson said.

Contemplate that for a moment.
Now add this to your contemplation:

Section 8 of the proposed legislation says it all:
“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”
Right; “non-reviewable” supremacy.

Would you trust Mr. Paulson that much???

There are only two possibilities left:
1. Mr. Paulson does not have the foggiest idea what he is talking about.
2. Mr. Paulson is a puppet of the elite and all of this is a New World (Market) Order conspiracy, which will lead to the the destruction of the Dollar, the destruction of the middle class and the bankruptcy of the US.
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Henry Paulson, secretary of the U.S. Treasury, gives a speech on Chinese financial markets at the Shanghai Futures Exchange in Shanghai on March 8, 2007. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg News

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) — Eighteen months ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told an audience at the Shanghai Futures Exchange that China risked trillions of dollars in lost economic potential unless it freed up its capital markets.

“An open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention,” Paulson said.

That advice rings hollow in China as Paulson plans a $700 billion rescue for U.S. financial institutions and the Securities and Exchange Commission bans short sales of insurers, banks and securities firms. Regulators in the fastest-growing major economy say they may ditch plans to introduce derivatives, and some company bosses are rethinking U.S. business models.

“The U.S. financial system was regarded as a model, and we tried our best to copy whatever we could,” said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. “Suddenly we find our teacher is not that excellent, so the next time when we’re designing our financial system we will use our own mind more.”

The recent moves by Paulson, the former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., contradict what the U.S. told Asian governments over the past decade. Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia were urged to let unviable banks fail during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Read moreChina Shuns Paulson’s Free Market Push as Meltdown Burns U.S.

Democrats and Republicans alike sceptical of Bush bailout plan


Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke folds his hands while testifying with US Treasury secretary Henry Paulson before the Senate banking committee on Tuesday. Photograph: Charles Dharapak/AP

The proposed $700bn bailout of US financial markets faced harsh criticism in Congress today, with liberals and conservatives both sceptical that granting the Bush administration power to buy up risky mortgages would avert further economic crisis.

Yet despite the wariness from the Senate banking committee, where Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke appeared today, the financial rescue seems poised to win approval by next week at the latest.

“This is not something I wanted to ask for,” the US treasury secretary said, assuring senators that “I feel your frustrations” and “I’m angry” at the prospect of Wall Street firms getting saved by the government.

But Paulson and Bernanke did ask for broad latitude to decide which toxic assets would win a purchase by the government. Senators of both parties did not attempt to hide their anger at the request, citing the Bush administration’s previous assurances of market stability.

“We have been given no credible assurances that this plan will work,” Richard Shelby, the senior Republican on the banking panel, said. “Congress does not have time to determine if there are better alternatives.”

The committee’s Democratic chairman, Chris Dodd, questioned Paulson’s request for immunity from any legal or government review of his actions during the bailout process.

“After reading this proposal, I can only conclude that it is not just our economy that is at risk,” Dodd told the treasury secretary, “but our constitution as well.”

Read moreDemocrats and Republicans alike sceptical of Bush bailout plan

Mushroom Clouds Over Wall Street

By MIKE WHITNEY

“One bank to rule them all;
One bank to bind them…”

These are dark times. While you were sleeping the cockroaches were busy about their work, rummaging through the US Constitution, and putting the finishing touches on a scheme to assert absolute power over the nation’s financial markets and the country’s economic future. Industry representative Henry Paulson has submitted legislation to Congress that will finally end the pretense that Bush controls anything more than reading the lines from a 4′ by 6′ teleprompter situated just inches from his lifeless pupils. Paulson is in charge now, and the coronation is set for sometime early next week. He rose to power in a stealthily-executed Banksters’ Coup in which he, and his coterie of dodgy friends, declared martial law on the US economy while elevating himself to supreme leader.

“All Hail Caesar!” The days of the republic are over.

Section 8 of the proposed legislation says it all:

“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”

Right; “non-reviewable” supremacy.

Read moreMushroom Clouds Over Wall Street

Dollar May Get `Crushed’ as Traders Weigh Up Bailout


U.S. one dollar bills are displayed for a photograph in New York, April 15, 2008. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson‘s plan to end the rout in U.S. financial markets may derail the dollar’s three-month rally as investors weigh the costs of the rescue.

The combination of spending $700 billion on soured mortgage-related assets and providing $400 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds will boost U.S. borrowing as much as $1 trillion, according to Barclays Capital interest-rate strategist Michael Pond in New York. While the rescue may restore investor confidence to battered financial markets, traders will again focus on the twin budget and current-account deficits and negative real U.S. interest rates.

``As we get to the other side of this, the dollar will get crushed,” said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world’s biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion.

Read moreDollar May Get `Crushed’ as Traders Weigh Up Bailout

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Become Banks, Ending an Era for Wall Street


U.S. flags fly outside the headquarters of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in New York, Sept. 16, 2008. Photographer: Gino Domenico/Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — The Wall Street that shaped the financial world for two decades ended last night, when Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley concluded there is no future in remaining investment banks now that investors have determined the model is broken.

The Federal Reserve’s approval of their bid to become banks ends the ascendancy of the securities firms, 75 years after Congress separated them from deposit-taking lenders, and caps weeks of chaos that sent Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and led to the rushed sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp.

“The decision marks the end of Wall Street as we have known it,” said William Isaac, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. “It’s too bad.”

Goldman, whose alumni include Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary presiding over a $700 billion bank bailout, and Morgan Stanley, a product of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that cleaved investment and commercial banks, insisted they didn’t need to change course, even as their shares plunged and their borrowing costs soared last week.

Read moreGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Become Banks, Ending an Era for Wall Street

The Bailout Is NOT Limited to $700 Billion, Paulson Could Spend UNLIMITED Taxpayer Money

Most people think that the proposed bailout will cost $700 billion. In fact, it is not limited to $700 big ones, and will probably go much higher.

Specifically, Paulson’s draft bailout plans says:

“The Secretary’s authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time.”

That means that Paulson could buy a couple hundred billion worth of assets one day, sell them, and then the next day buy another couple hundred billion, and so on.

The maximum price tag?

There is no maximum. Paulson could literally spend unlimited taxpayer monies. And remember that Paulson has already broadened the proposal to include the purchase of non mortgage-related assets.

Read moreThe Bailout Is NOT Limited to $700 Billion, Paulson Could Spend UNLIMITED Taxpayer Money

Treasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration sought unchecked power from Congress to buy $700 billion in bad mortgage investments from financial companies in what would be an unprecedented government intrusion into the markets.

Through his plan, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson aims to avert a credit freeze that would bring the financial system and the world’s largest economy to a standstill. The bill would prevent courts from reviewing actions taken under its authority.

“He’s asking for a huge amount of power,” said Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University. “He’s saying, `Trust me, I’m going to do it right if you give me absolute control.’ This is not a monarchy.”

Read moreTreasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Financial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable


Hard times: central banks have acted to avoid a repeat of 1929

So, here we are – the start of a new world order. After the tumultuous events of the last fortnight, the global economic landscape will never look the same again.

Power has tangibly shifted – away from the United States and the Western world generally, and towards the fast-growing giants of the East. That’s been happening for some years now.

But September 2008 marks the moment when the scale of our excesses, the extent of our debts and the moral bankruptcy of our financial regulatory system finally began to be truly exposed.

Read moreFinancial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable

IT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

“I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.”
– Sir Isaac Newton, after losing a fortune in the South Sea bubble

Something extraordinary is going on with these government bailouts. In March 2008, the Federal Reserve extended a $55 billion loan to JPMorgan to “rescue” investment bank Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, a highly controversial move that tested the limits of the Federal Reserve Act. On September 7, 2008, the U.S. government seized private mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and imposed a conservatorship, a form of bankruptcy; but rather than let the bankruptcy court sort out the assets among the claimants, the Treasury extended an unlimited credit line to the insolvent corporations and said it would exercise its authority to buy their stock, effectively nationalizing them. Now the Federal Reserve has announced that it is giving an $85 billion loan to American International Group (AIG), the world’s largest insurance company, in exchange for a nearly 80% stake in the insurer . . . .

The Fed is buying an insurance company? Where exactly is that covered in the Federal Reserve Act? The Associated Press calls it a “government takeover,” but this is not your ordinary “nationalization” like the purchase of Fannie/Freddie stock by the U.S. Treasury. The Federal Reserve has the power to print the national money supply, but it is not actually a part of the U.S. government. It is a private banking corporation owned by a consortium of private banks. The banking industry just bought the world’s largest insurance company, and they used federal money to do it. Yahoo Finance reported on September 17:

Read moreIT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

The Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households

As a trader, I stopped getting disgusted at government manipulation of markets several years ago, didn’t pretend it wasn’t happening, just tried to find when it was coming. I decided to develop an indicator that would tell me when the probability was extremely high that the Master Planners would intervene. That approach has served us well, and that indicator is known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Indicator. It flashed a new “buy” signal Monday, September 15th at the close, rising above positive + 20.00, warning that the decline from August 11th was terminal. The Industrials have risen 565 points since that buy signal. When this measure rises above positive + 20.00, it is usually early, but very right, an early warning indicator telling us to enjoy the decline for a few more trading days but get ready for a spike rally.

The current government market intervention (“manipulation” is probably a more appropriate word) that transpired the past two weeks, reaching crescendo Thursday on a rumor, and Friday on an announcement, is one of the most dramatic since the 1930’s. It really puts into question the notion of U.S. markets being under capitalism, not socialism. The government nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week, announced its intent to nationalize AIG, a component of the Dow 30, this week, and then pulled out all the stops with the Paulson manifesto Friday. Not sure why he didn’t nationalize Lehman Bros, unless it was personal, as he came from competitor Goldman Sachs, and enjoyed watching them declare bankruptcy. Okay, maybe I am a bit cynical — maybe.

Before getting into market performance and the forecast, let’s cover what we know about this historic redefining of the rules of the game that Paulson has placed on the table for Congress to consider next week:

Read moreThe Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households

Paulson Bailout Plan a Historic Swindle

Financial-market wise guys, who had been seized with fear, are suddenly drunk with hope. They are rallying explosively because they think they have successfully stampeded Washington into accepting the Wall Street Journal solution to the crisis: dump it all on the taxpayers. That is the meaning of the massive bailout Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has shopped around Congress. It would relieve the major banks and investment firms of their mountainous rotten assets and make the public swallow their losses–many hundreds of billions, maybe much more. What’s not to like if you are a financial titan threatened with extinction?

Read morePaulson Bailout Plan a Historic Swindle