It took 215 years to accumulate $7 trillion of debt. We’ve added that much in the last three years. That which is unsustainable will not be sustained. This is the type of chart you see showing what happened to the Wiemar Republic in the 1920s. The only reason our currency hasn’t crashed is because the EU and Japan are in far worse shape. We are still the best looking horse in the glue factory. But even the best looking horse gets turned to glue eventually.

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Expect A Mass Die-Off Of Public Companies Later This Year | Ted Oakley (Video)

H/t reader Squodgy:





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What Goes Up Also Comes Down: The Heavy Hand Of Bubble Symmetry

What Goes Up Also Comes Down: The Heavy Hand Of Bubble Symmetry:

Should bubble symmetry play out in the S&P 500, we can anticipate a steep 45% drop to pre-bubble levels, followed by another leg down as the speculative frenzy is slowly extinguished.

Bubble symmetry is, well, interesting. The dot-com stock market bubble circa 1995-2003 offers a classic example of bubble symmetry, though there are many others as well. The key feature of bubble symmetry is the entire bubble retraces in roughly the same time frame as it took to soar to absurd heights.

Nobody could see bubble symmetry coming, of course. At the peak and for some time after, bubbles are viewed as the natural order of markets and so they should continue expanding forever.

Alas, the natural order of markets is mean reversion and the collapse of whatever is unsustainable. This includes speculative manias, credit bubbles, asset bubbles and projections of endless expansion of margins, profits, sales, consumption, tax revenues and everything else under the sun.

There’s a well-worn psychological path in the collapse of bubbles. This path more or less tracks the Kubler-Ross phases of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance, though the momentum of speculative frenzy demands extended displays of hubris and over-confidence, i.e. the first wobble “must be the bottom.”

There’s also repeated spikes of false hope that “the bottom is in” and the bubble is starting to reflate.

This pattern repeats until the speculative fever finally breaks and all those betting on a resumption of the bubble mania finally give up.

This process often takes about the same length of time that it took for the bubble mania to become ubiquitous. If it took about 2.5 years for the bubble to expand, it takes about 2.5 years for the bubble to pop and the market to return to its pre-bubble level.

Once again we hear reasonable-sounding claims being used to support predictions of a never-ending rise in stock valuations.

What hasn’t changed is humans are still running Wetware 1.0 which has default settings for extremes of emotion, particularly manic euphoria, running with the herd (a.k.a. FOMO, fear of missing out) and panic / fear.

Despite all the assurances to the contrary, all bubbles pop because they are based in human emotions. We attempt to rationalize them by invoking the real world, but the reality is speculative manias are manifestations of human emotions and the feedback of running in a herd of social animals.

With all this in mind, let’s consider the current bubbles in stocks and housing. Should bubble symmetry play out in the S&P 500, we can anticipate a steep 45% drop to pre-bubble levels, followed by another leg down as the speculative frenzy is slowly extinguished.

Housing is notoriously “sticky” when it comes to price declines, as sellers show remarkable tenacity in the denial phase. The last few greater fools buying on the first modest decline spur the hopes of sellers that the flood of mania-driven buyers is about to resume, but manias don’t last nor do they resume.

If bubble symmetry plays out, we can anticipate a relatively steep drop of about 30% to pre-mania levels, followed by a longer decline to pre-Bubble #1 and Bubble #2 levels, a roughly 60% drop from bubble heights.

Such declines are of course “impossible.” There are always endless reasons why bubbles can’t possibly pop and why 60% declines are impossible, even as history tells us that 60% declines are inevitable, and in the bigger picture, rather modest. It’s the 90% declines that really hurt.


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Hyperinflationary Hell: Lebanese Central Bank Devalues ‘Lira’ By 90%

Coming to MANY countries near you, as predicted and as planned by TPTB.

Preparedness is EVERYTHING!!!…

Food, water, survival gear and a self-sufficient lifestyle.

The best protection for financial assets…

Have told you about all of the above since 2008.



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– Hyperinflationary Hell: Lebanese Central Bank Devalues ‘Lira’ By 90%:

Cash is now king in Lebanon, where a three-year economic meltdown has led the country’s once-lauded financial sector to atrophy and turned the country into a Venezuelan-esque hyperinflationary hell. The country has been hit hard by events over the past few years, starting with COVID.

In August 2020, the city of Beirut was practically destroyed by a massive blast which killed at least 200 people and triggered as much as $15 billion in damage

In March 2021, violent protests erupted across Lebanon as the currency collapse accelerated and with it the economy and people’s living standards.

And most recently, In December 2022, the Lebanese parliament failed for the eighth consecutive time to elect a new president, as a majority of lawmakers opposed the options laid on the table.

The prolonged power vacuum only exacerbates the situation, as Beirut is currently unable to enact sweeping reforms demanded by international lenders as a condition for releasing billions of dollars in loans.

All of which has sent the ‘parallel’ FX rate to a stunning 60,000/USD (compared to the official Pound – often nicknamed ‘Lira’ – rate of 1500/USD)…


As Reuters reports, Zombie banks have frozen depositors out of tens of billions of dollars in their accounts, halting basic services and even prompting some customers to hold up tellers at gunpoint to access their money.

This has prompted bank runs…

Not a week goes by without Lebanese depositors storming their own banks in a desperate attempt to access savings frozen after the country’s economy collapsed.

Banks began imposing draconian limits on withdrawals and transfers in 2019, leaving depositors able to access only a fraction of their savings in dollars and Lebanese pounds.

and heists…

The National has recorded 27 depositor bank “heists” since the start of the year, including armed and unarmed hold-ups and sit-ins.

Former director-general of the Ministry of Finance Alain Bifani estimated that $6 billion was “smuggled” by bankers outside Lebanon for the political and economic elites while they were blocking transfers abroad for ordinary people.

“These forced withdrawals — we do not call them heists, because this would imply that these depositors are stealing other people’s money — are a solution of last-resort after the exhaustion of all possible ways for depositors to recover their money,” said lawyer Fouad Debs, co-founder of Lebanese Depositors Union.

People and businesses now operate almost exclusively in cash.

The local currency in circulation ballooned 12-fold between Sept. 2019 and Nov. 2022, according to banking documents seen by Reuters.

With more bank notes in circulation, crime has risen. Elie Anatian, CEO of security firm Salvado, said yearly sales of safes had grown steadily, with a 15% increase in 2022.

And that has seemingly forced officials’ hands as Reuters reports that Lebanon will adopt a new official exchange rate of 15,000 pounds per U.S. dollar on Feb. 1, central bank governor Riad Salameh said, marking a 90% devaluation from its current official rate that has remained unchanged for 25 years.

The shift from the old rate of 1,507 to 15,000 is still far off the parallel market rate of around 60,000.

Salameh said the change to 15,000 was a step towards unifying multiple exchange rates, in line with a draft agreement Lebanon reached with the International Monetary Fund last year that set out conditions to unlock a $3 billion bailout.

Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Lebanon’s Byblos Bank, said the pound’s continuing decline meant the cash economy was now also dollarised, “with dollars accounting for approximately 70-80% of operations”.

“The transformation to a cash economy means the collapse of the economy,” said Mohammad Chamseddine, an economic expert at Lebanese research group Information International.

The IMF deal is widely seen as the only way for Lebanon to begin restoring confidence in its financial system and recover from the collapse.

However, as we previously noted, there have also been fights in supermarkets as people try to buy bread, sugar, oil, and other goods before they run out, with inflation 400 percent, the report said.

Murder rates and other crimes are also rapidly rising.

The economic collapse could reduce the country into a failed state, experts have warned.

“Not only do we have an absence of government and a political vacuum, but we’re going to have a severe problem with the function of the state of Lebanon,” Lebanese American University political scientist Imad Salamey told The Wall Street Journal. “We are heading toward the unknown.”

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We Just Witnessed An Economic Sign That Hasn’t Happened Since The Peak Of The Great Depression In 1932

We Just Witnessed An Economic Sign That Hasn’t Happened Since The Peak Of The Great Depression In 1932:

Economic conditions are much worse than you are being told.  Throughout the past year, prices have been rising much faster than most of our incomes have.  As a result, our standard of living has been rapidly declining.  It has become increasingly difficult for U.S. households to make it from month to month, and as you will see below, more than a third of all U.S. adults are actually relying on their parents to pay at least some of their bills at this point.  But even more alarming is what has been happening to real disposable income.  According to Fox Business, the most recent GDP report revealed that the decline in real disposable income that we witnessed in 2022 was the largest that has been measured since 1932…

The most troubling information in the GDP report is the precipitous drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. For context, this is the second-largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression.

Just think about that for a moment.

The last time real disposable income declined this quickly was literally during the peak of the Great Depression.

Read moreWe Just Witnessed An Economic Sign That Hasn’t Happened Since The Peak Of The Great Depression In 1932

IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast As Inflation Cools

IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast As Inflation Cools:

The International Monetary Fund published its latest World Economic Outlook on Monday, painting a slightly less gloomy picture than three and a half months ago, as inflation appears to have peaked in 2022, consumer spending remains robust and the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been less severe than initially feared.

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Freedom Moon Rising (Max Igan Video)



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Adani Wipeout Hits $68 Billion; Despite Turmoil, UAE Sees Investment Opportunity

Adani Wipeout Hits $68 Billion; Despite Turmoil, UAE Sees Investment Opportunity:

Adani Group published a 413-page rebuttal on Sunday, condemning Hindenburg Research’s 100-page short report last week. Hindenburg responded overnight, indicating the rebuttal only answered 62 of 88 questions and sidestepped key questions. Adani’s rebuttal wasn’t enough to calm investors as most stocks and bonds tied to the Indian group plummeted for the third session. However, bucking the bear trend, Abu Dhabi’s royal family is bullish on Adani.

Since Hindenburg accused Adani Group of “pulling the largest con in corporate history,” having “engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades,” a three-day selloff has wiped out more than $68 billion of market capitalization from Adani Group companies.

Billionaire Gautam Adani has lost $20 billion in personal wealth. His ranking on the Bloomberg Billionaire Index had shifted down to number seven from number four before Hindenburg published the short report last Wednesday.

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“Recession Is On Its Way” – Dallas Fed Shows Factory Activity Slumps For 9th Straight Month

“Recession Is On Its Way” – Dallas Fed Shows Factory Activity Slumps For 9th Straight Month:

While the headline Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index printed better than expected (-8.4 vs -15.0), it remains in contraction (less than zero) for the 9th straight month (the longest streak since 2016)

Current federal policies are killing small businesses. From diesel prices to shortages, everything costs so much more…”

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