Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Near Single-Digits As CDS Spike To Record Highs – “if it walks like Lehman, and talks like Lehman… it is Lehman.”

Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Near Single-Digits As CDS Spike To Record Highs:

The “most systemically dangerous bank in the world” is in grave trouble. Despite exclamations that there is “no need for additional capital” and that “Deutsche Bank is no Lehman” investors are fleeing the bank’s assets en masse as professionals pile in to buy counterparty risk protection. With the only thing standing between bank runs and stability being the confidence of depositors, and knowing full well that everybody lies when it gets serious, one witty trader noted, “if it walks like Lehman, and talks like Lehman… it is Lehman.”

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You Are Here … It’s ‘Definitely Different’ This Time …

You Are Here:

It’s definitely different this time…

The 2008 analog lines the current trajectory up with August 2008 right after Treasury Secretary Paulson told the world reassuringly that:

“Our economy has got very strong long-term fundamentals. And you know, your policy-makers and regulators here – we’re very vigilant.”

And we all know what happened next…

You are here S&P 500

Deutsche Bank Spikes Most In 5 Years (Just Like Lehman Did)

Deutsche Bank Spikes Most In 5 Years (Just Like Lehman Did):

Rumors of ECB monetization (which would be highly problematic in the new “bail-in” world) and old news of the emergency debt-buyback plan have sparked an epic ramp in Deutsche Bank’s stock this morning (+11% – the most since Oct 2011). This extreme volatility is, however, eerily reminiscent of 2007/8 when headline hockey sparked pumps and dumps on a daily basis in Lehman stock… until it was all over.

“Deutsche Bank is fixed”?

Deutsche Bank-1

Or is it?

Deutsche Bank-Lehman-Brotheres-Chart

Things are already fading…

Deutsche Bank-Stock-Chart

We suspect every bounce will be met by opportunistic selling as an inverted CDS curve has seldom if ever reverted back to life.

 

Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 BILLION Capital Gap

Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 Billion Capital Gap (Bloomberg, Oct 14, 2014):

Too big to fail is likely to prove a costly epithet for the world’s biggest banks as regulators demand they increase holdings of debt securities to cover losses should they collapse.

The shortfall facing lenders from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to HSBC Holdings Plc could be as much as $870 billion, according to estimates from AllianceBernstein Ltd., or as little as $237 billion forecast by Barclays Plc.

The range is so wide because proposals from the Basel-based Financial Stability Board outline various possibilities for the amount lenders need to have available as a portion of risk-weighted assets. With those holdings in excess of $21 trillion at the lenders most directly affected, small changes to assumptions translate into big numbers.

Read moreToo-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 BILLION Capital Gap

Art Cashin: ‘Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment’

Art Cashin

Art Cashin: “Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment” (ZeroHedge, Sep 13, 2014):

Courtesy of Finanz und Wirtschaft, interview by Christoph Gisiger

Wall Street veteran Art Cashin does not fully trust the record levels at the stock market and draws worrisome parallels between the geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and the Cuban missile crisis.

From the assassination of President Kennedy via the stock market crash of 1987 and the Fall of the Berlin Wall through to the burst of the dotcom bubble, the terror attacks of 9/11 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers: Art Cashin has experienced all the major world events of the last half century at the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Currently, the highly respected Wall Street veteran keeps a close eye on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and on the situation in Ukraine which reminds him of the Cuban missile crisis «The markets are edgy and nervous», says the Director of Floor Operations for UBS Financial Services while constantly checking the quotation board. Like many traders here, he is somewhat skeptical of the huge stock market rally that started in March 2009. «I think it is a question of the extraordinarily low interest rates», he explains.

Read moreArt Cashin: ‘Things Could Theoretically Turn Into What I Call A Lehman Moment’

The Head Of ‘The Central Bank Of The World’ Warns That Another Great Financial Crisis May Be Coming

Prepare for collapse.


bis-bank-for-international-settlements-basel-switzerland

The Head Of ‘The Central Bank Of The World’ Warns That Another Great Financial Crisis May Be Coming (Economic Collapse, July 13, 2014):

Most people have never heard of Jaime Caruana even though he is the head of an immensely powerful organization.  He has been serving as the General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements since 2009, and he will continue in that role until 2017.  The Bank for International Settlements is a rather boring name, and very few people realize that it is at the very core of our centrally-planned global financial system.  So when Jaime Caruana speaks, people should listen.  And the fact that he recently warned that the global financial system is currently “more fragile” in many ways than it was just prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers should set off all sorts of alarm bells.  Speaking of the financial markets, Caruana ominously declared that “it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally” and he noted that “markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.  In other words, he is saying what I have been saying for so long.  The behavior of the financial markets has become completely divorced from economic reality, and at some point there is going to be a massive correction.

So why would the head of ‘the central bank of the world’ choose this moment to issue such a chilling warning?

Read moreThe Head Of ‘The Central Bank Of The World’ Warns That Another Great Financial Crisis May Be Coming

Is This The Top? First Quarter Corporate Profits Tumble Most Since Lehman

–  Is This The Top? First Quarter Corporate Profits Tumble Most Since Lehman (ZeroHedge, June 3, 2014):

As SocGen’s Albert Edwards conveniently points out, during the excitement of the downward revision of Q1 US GDP from +0.1% to -1.0% investors seem not to have noticed a $213bn, 10% annualized slump in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) favored measure of whole economy profits, defined as profits from current production. Also known as economic profits, the BEA makes adjustments to remove inventory profits (IVA) and to put depreciation on an economic instead of a tax basis (CCAdj). Edwards shows the stark difference between the BEA’s calculation for post-tax headline profits (up 5.3% yoy) and economic profits (down 6.8% yoy) in the chart below. In short: the plunge in actual corporate profits in Q1 was the biggest since Lehman!

corporate profits Q1

It is not just SocGen’s bear who observes this surprising finding: Goldman is on it as well.

Read moreIs This The Top? First Quarter Corporate Profits Tumble Most Since Lehman

Bernanke Finally Reveals, In One Word, Why The Financial System Crashed: ‘Overconfidence’

Bernanke Finally Reveals, In One Word, Why The Financial System Crashed (ZeroHedge, March 4, 2014):

Now that Ben Bernanke is no longer the head of the Fed, he can finally tell the truth about what caused the financial crash. At least that’s what a packed auditorium of over 1000 people as part of the financial conference staged by National Bank of Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s largest bank, was hoping for earlier today when they paid an exorbitant amount of money to hear the former chairman talk.Bernanke confirmed as much when he said he could now speak more freely about the crisis than he could while at the Fed – “I can say whatever I want.”

So what was the reason, according to the man who was easily the most powerful person in the world for nearly a decade?

Ready?

“Overconfidence.” (no, not “weather”)

Bernanke prayer

Yup. That’s it.

The United States became “overconfident”, he said of the period before the September 2008 collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers. That triggered a crash from which parts of the world, including the U.S. economy, have not fully recovered.

“This is going to sound very obvious but the first thing we learned is that the U.S. is not invulnerable to financial crises,” Bernanke said.

Actually what is going to sound even more obvious, is that subprime was not contained.

Read moreBernanke Finally Reveals, In One Word, Why The Financial System Crashed: ‘Overconfidence’