Credit Crisis – Page 8 – Infinite Unknown

Recession forecast for Germany, Spain and UK

September 10, 2008 by Infinite

Germany, the UK and Spain all face recessions this year, the European Commission forecast yesterday, dashing finally any remaining hopes that Europe would avoid a sharp economic downturn. France and Italy would fare little better, it said.

The steep downward revisions in growth forecasts by the European Union’s executive arm showed it had accepted that tumbling business and consumer confidence was hitting economic activity – even though the European economy had been “generally sound” prior to the credit crisis .

Joaquin Almunia, economics and monetary affairs commissioner, described the environment as “difficult and uncertain”. As well as financial turmoil and a near doubling of oil prices over the past year, significant housing market corrections in some countries were taking their toll, he said.

Freddie, Fannie Scam Hidden in Broad Daylight

September 10, 2008 by Infinite

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — When the history is written on the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it will go down in the annals of corporate scandals as one of the greatest accounting scams committed in broad daylight.

All anyone had to do to know the government-guaranteed mortgage financiers were insolvent was read their financial statements. You didn’t need a trained professional eye to discern this open secret, only a skeptical one.

Just last month, Fannie and Freddie said their regulatory capital was $47 billion and $37.1 billion, respectively, as of June 30. The Treasury Department now says it may have to inject as much as $200 billion of capital into the two companies. Nothing much changed at the companies in that span. They just couldn’t get the government to keep up the ruse any longer.

Lehman posts $4 billion quarterly loss, plans sales

September 10, 2008 by Infinite

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc plans to sell a majority stake in its asset management unit and spin off commercial real estate holdings, hoping to restore investor confidence and ensure its survival after reporting a record quarterly loss of about $4 billion.

Shares failed to rebound on Wednesday morning after plunging 45 percent a day earlier, reflecting Wall Street disappointment that Lehman did not announce more concrete actions.

Why Government Bailout Of Fannie And Freddie Will Fail

September 9, 2008 by Infinite

With yesterday’s announcement of the most massive federal bailout of all time, it’s now official: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest mortgage lenders on Earth, are bankrupt.

Some Washington bigwigs and bureaucrats will inevitably try to spin it. They’ll avoid the “b” word with vengeance. They’ll push the “c” word (conservatorship) with passion. And in the newspeak of 21st century bailouts, they’ll tell you “it all depends on what the definition of solvency is.”

The truth: Without their accounting smoke and mirrors, Fannie and Freddie have no capital. The government is seizing control of their operations. Their chief executives are getting fired. Common shareholders will be virtually wiped out. Preferred shareholders will get pennies. If that’s not wholesale bankruptcy, what is?

China frets at US risk after Fannie/Freddie bailout

September 9, 2008 by Infinite

BEIJING, Sept 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury’s takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is good news in the short term for China, the biggest holder of the giant mortgage lenders’ debt, but Beijing’s huge U.S. exposure still poses a serious risk, a prominent government researcher said on Monday.

China owned $376 billion of debt issued by U.S. government agencies, principally Fannie and Freddie, as of mid-2007.
The seizure of the two firms, prompted by worries over their shrinking capital, was the latest in a series of emergency steps taken by U.S. authorities to quell a year-long credit crisis that has helped push many economies toward recession. [ID:nN07479172]

“China has bought a lot of asset-backed securities, and there might be short-term improvement in price,” said He Fan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

But, taking a longer view, he said the bailout posed a problem: if the Treasury issues new debt to fund the rescue, should China be a buyer or not?

“For China, whether or not you buy the new treasuries, there will be losses: if you buy them, you’re getting deeper in the hole; if you don’t buy, your existing holdings will lose value,” He said.

Home sales fall to one a week, says Rics

September 9, 2008 by Infinite

Estate agents are recording the lowest level of sales since 1978. Photo: Getty

Estate agents are selling an average of just one home a week as the number of sales hits a 30-year low, according to a report today.

The latest monthly snapshot of the housing market by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said it had stalled in August as a result of a continued lack of finance for mortgages and uncertainty over stamp duty.

US waves goodbye to prosperity and democracy

September 8, 2008 by Infinite

THE events of the weekend begin the greatest intervention in the US economy by the Federal Government since the Great Depression, with the Bear Stearns rescue but a splutter on this road we must now travel.

If you were wondering what all the flag-waving at the Republican convention has been about, it is now clear. Americans are waving goodbye to the prosperity the nation has enjoyed since the Great Depression and a final goodbye to democracy. But while preparation for the most important decision made in the nation’s post-depression financial history towered above the conventions, I don’t think the fate of Freddie and Fannie and the remaining government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) was mentioned during either convention.

Related article: Jim Rogers: US Is More Communist than China

And the politicians. President Bush has long authorised the Treasury to open its purse strings and, naturally, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he did not expect the line of endless taxpayer credit to be used. This is like signing an authority to go to war and saying we don’t expect to go to war. Once the authority is given, it will happen. It was always laughable to expect otherwise. Paulson “briefed” John McCain and Barack Obama on the “plan”. The fact is that while America, and the world, wait to see who will govern, Mr Paulson has decided to take matters out of the politicians’ hands.

They willingly agreed. The ultimate political power, to spend taxpayers’ money, has been tossed away. Obviously the economy is too important to be left to the politicians. Instead it is to be put into “conservatorship”. It has come to this.

Taxpayers take on trillions in risk in Fannie, Freddie takeover

September 8, 2008 by Infinite

USA TODAY WASHINGTON – The unprecedented federal takeover of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announced on Sunday is a bold attempt to stabilize financial markets and restore the faltering housing market, but it thrusts trillions of dollars of risk directly onto taxpayers’ shoulders.

“You can call it a bailout, you can call it a safety net or you can call it a rescue package, but the bottom line is the American taxpayer is left footing the bill,” says Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research.

Jim Rogers: US Is More Communist than China

September 8, 2008September 8, 2008 by Infinite

The nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shows that the U.S. is “more communist than China right now” but its brand of socialism is meant only for the rich, investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Europe on Monday.

“America is more communist than China is right now. You can see that this is welfare of the rich, it is socialism for the rich… it’s just bailing out financial institutions,” Rogers said.

Stock markets jumped after the U.S. government’s decision to launch what could be its biggest federal bailout ever, in a bid to support the housing market and ward off more global financial market turbulence.

But Rogers said in the long term the move spelled trouble.

“This is madness, this is insanity, they have more than doubled the American national debt in one weekend for a bunch of crooks and incompetents. I’m not quite sure why I or anybody else should be paying for this,” Rogers told “Squawk Box Europe.”

European stocks soared on Monday, led by banks. UBS was up 11 percent, BNP Paribas up 8 percent, Credit Agricole up 11.1 percent and HBOS up 13.8 percent.

“You certainly gonna see a huge jump in any financial institutions which owned a lot of Fannie [FNM 0.75 -6.29 (-89.35%) ] or Freddie [FRE 0.75 -4.35 (-85.29%) ] … because they don’t have to worry about going bankrupt all of a sudden,” Rogers said.

“Bank stocks around the world are going through the roof, that’s ’cause they’ve all been bailed out. You don’t see the homeowners in Kansas going through the roof ’cause they’re not being bailed out,” he added.

U.S. Losses on Fannie, Freddie May Be $300 Billion, Poole Says

September 7, 2008 by Infinite

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) — William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said taxpayers may face a $300 billion bill to revive Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants being taken over by the Federal government.

“I would not be surprised if their total losses aggregate about 5 percent of their obligations” of about $6 trillion, Poole said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “Five percent does not seem to me to be an outrageous guess.”

U.S. seizes Fannie and Freddie

September 7, 2008 by Infinite

Treasury chief Paulson unveils historic government takeover of twin mortgage buyers. Top executives are out.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Federal officials on Sunday unveiled an extraordinary takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, putting the government in charge of the twin mortgage giants and the $5 trillion in home loans they back.

The move, which allows the Treasury to provide as much as $200 billion in capital to the two companies, marks Washington’s most dramatic attempt yet to shore up the nation’s housing market, which is suffering from record foreclosures and falling prices.

Record bail-out in US of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

September 6, 2008 by Infinite

THE US TREASURY will today announce a rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two giant American mortgage banks, in what is likely to be the biggest financial bail-out of recent history.

The move may trigger a bounce in global stock markets tomorrow. However, analysts warn that some of the uncertainties that plagued the markets last week, including worries over the duration of the credit crunch, will persist.

9% of homeowners are late with bill or in foreclosure, study says

September 6, 2008 by Infinite

WASHINGTON – An industry group says a record 9.2% of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June, as damage from the housing crisis continued to mount.

The latest quarterly snapshot by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Friday broke records for late payments, homes entering the foreclosure process and for the inventory of loans in foreclosure.

FDIC shutters Silver State Bank of Nevada

September 6, 2008 by Infinite

Son of presidential nominee John McCain was reportedly former board member; closing marks the 11th bank failure this year.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development.

It was the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank.

U.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression, Economist Shiller Says

September 6, 2008September 6, 2008 by Infinite

Eight years ago, Yale superstar professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller famously called the top of the stock market in his book Irrational Exuberance. Then, a year before the housing bubble peaked, he predicted the colossal bust we are now experiencing.

If you recognize Shiller’s name, it’s because the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price indexes, which he developed with Wellesley College economist Karl Case, have become the nation’s most authoritative source for home price trends.

In part one of my one-on-one with Shiller, we discuss the grim outlook for U.S. housing, which he tackles in-depth in his new book The Subprime Solution. Highlights of our first discussion include:

Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s. With prices already down almost 20%, it’s not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around.
There are about 10 million homeowners whose debt is higher than their home value, which has broad implications for how Americans feel about their wealth and spending habits (read: more pressure on consumer spending).
The current hopeful consensus — that house prices will bottom soon and then begin to recover — is most likely a dream. Housing markets don’t usually have “V-shaped” recoveries. And even if house prices stabilize in nominal terms, after adjusting for inflation, most homeowners will continue to lose money.
Read moreU.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression, Economist Shiller Says

Merrill Lynch Cut to `Sell’ at Goldman on Writedowns

September 6, 2008 by Infinite

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co., down 50 percent in New York trading this year, was cut to “sell” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on concern the firm may post more writedowns tied to credit-related investments.

Goldman added the third-biggest U.S. securities company to its “conviction sell” list, according to a report by analysts including William Tanona. The share-price estimate on the stock was lowered 23 percent to $22, compared with yesterday’s closing price of $26.21.

Merrill, battered by more than $40 billion of credit market writedowns, has sold mortgage-linked assets to reduce risk and free up capital. The company trades at 1.25 times book value, compared with 0.95 for Citigroup Inc., the only firm that’s reported larger writedowns and losses stemming from the credit market crunch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital

September 5, 2008 by Infinite

Dollar and yuan currency at a bank in China. China’s central bank has accumulated about $1 trillion in United States debt.

HONG KONG – China’s central bank is in a bind.

It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

Now the central bank needs an infusion of capital. Central banks can, of course, print more money, but that would stoke inflation. Instead, the People’s Bank of China has begun discussions with the finance ministry on ways to shore up its capital, said three people familiar with the discussions who insisted on anonymity because the subject is delicate in China.

House prices suffer biggest fall since records began

September 5, 2008 by Infinite

House prices: Dropped by more than £25,000 over the past year. Photo: Cate Gillon/Getty

House prices fell by 1.8% in August, bringing the average price of a property in the UK below the government’s new stamp duty threshold, figures showed today.

The UK’s largest lender, Halifax, said the average price of a property had fallen by 12.7% since last August – the biggest fall since it began publishing a monthly survey in the early 1980s.

Prices have dropped by more than £25,000 since August 2007 when the average cost of a home was £199,612, and by more than £3,000 since July.

In The Eye Of The Storm

September 5, 2008 by Infinite

By John Browne, senior market advisor – Euro Pacific Capital

As we enter the height of the hurricane season, it may be worthwhile to recall, when considering the economy at large, the particular deception that lurks in the “eye” of the storm. After a raging tempest, the sudden appearance of the calm ‘eye’ can all too easily encourage people to leave their shelter in order to assess and even repair damage, exposing themselves to the often more devastating second leg of the hurricane.

We have long warned our readers of a coming real estate crash which would then lead to a credit crunch, and eventually a major round of bank failures. We have argued that these developments would be the precursors to a major recession, and perhaps a depression.

As predicted, the collapsing values of bonds backed by subprime mortgages did indeed lead to a collapse of the entire mortgage market, a bank liquidity crisis, a credit crunch and a steep fall in consumer confidence. This was the first leg of the storm, but the full blown banking collapse and the deep recession are not yet manifest. The conventional wisdom holds that the bullet has been dodged.

JPMorgan Is Facing Federal Probe

September 4, 2008 by Infinite

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. will stop selling interest-rate swaps to government borrowers in the $2.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market roiled by an antitrust probe and the near bankruptcy of Alabama’s most-populous county.

At least seven former JPMorgan bankers are under scrutiny in a Justice Department criminal investigation of whether banks conspired to overcharge local governments on swaps and other derivatives. The bank also is embroiled in negotiations over how to resolve a debt crisis with Jefferson County, Alabama, where the county’s former adviser says a group of firms led by JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, overcharged it by as much as $100 million for financing a new sewer system.

Lehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank’

September 4, 2008 by Infinite

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may shift about $32 billion of commercial mortgages and real estate to a new company that will be spun off in a move similar to the good-bank-bad-bank model used in the 1980s banking crisis, two people briefed on the discussions said.

U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent Financial Tsunami

September 4, 2008 by Infinite

The financial tsunami is already on its way. That is why the central banks have intervened on a massive scale to support the dollar, so that the tsunami will hit the economy a little later.
Asking a totally broke government to buy assets is a interesting idea. And who will ultimately pay for any government spending? The taxpayers – like always – will have to pay for it, up to the point where they too will ‘fail’, but there will be no bailout for them – like always.
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Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government needs to start buying assets to stem a bourgeoning “financial tsunami,” according to Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund.

Scramble for cash as central banks dry up

September 2, 2008 by Infinite

British banks soon could be scrambling for short-term funding once more amid reports that supplies from Threadneedle Street and from Frankfurt may be drying up.

The Bank of England explicitly ruled out extending its Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS), while the European Central Bank is reportedly considering tightening its lending criteria.

The two central banks have been huge suppliers of liquidity to British banks. The SLS is thought to have provided £50 billion or more, while the ECB has lent banks €467 billion (£378 billion) – much of it thought to have gone to UK institutions.

Korea Development’s Min Confirms Talks With Lehman

September 2, 2008 by Infinite

A man walks past the Korea Development Bank headquarters in Seoul on Aug. 24, 2008. Photographer: Nasha Lee/Bloomberg News

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — Korea Development Bank is in talks to buy a stake in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm.

Chief Executive Officer Min Euoo Sung confirmed the discussions in an interview in Seoul today. “I cannot comment further,” said Min, who headed Lehman’s Seoul branch before joining the Korean bank in June. Matthew Russell, a Hong Kong- based spokesman for Lehman, declined to comment.

Home Office: Recession will bring big rise in crime and race hatred

September 1, 2008 by Infinite

Ministers are bracing themselves for a rise in violent crime and burglaries and a shift to far-right extremism as the effects of the economic downturn take their toll, a leaked Home Office report to the Prime Minister says.

In a series of warnings, the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, says that Britain also faces a “significant increase” in alcohol and tobacco smuggling, hostility towards migrants and even a potential rise in the number of people joining terrorist groups.