JPMorgan Puzzled By Record Gold Backwardation

JPMorgan Puzzled By Record Gold Backwardation (ZeroHedge, Aug 18, 2013):

Curious where all the demand for (immediate) physical gold (delivery) is coming from (as detailed here first in April)? As it turns out, so is JPMorgan.From this week’s Flows & Liquidity

SEC filings showed that the largest hedge fund holders of the gold ETFs liquidated most of their positions in Q2, although the single largest holder commented that they had simply switched their exposure from ETFs to the OTC derivative market as the current downward sloping forward curve makes it cheaper to be long gold through futures than via the ETF. Figure 7 shows the annualized % difference between the 1st and 2nd COMEX gold futures contracts going back over the past 30 years on a weekly basis. As the figure shows, a backwardated (downward sloping) gold forward curve is very unusual. This is an indicator of how strong physical demand is, i.e. spot is bid up relative to forward prices due to strong demand for immediate delivery of gold.

Ostensibly, this means that until the Bundesbank and/or PBOC finally issue a relevant 8-K, the “confusion” will continue.

Physical Gold Supply Tightness (2 Powerful Videos)

Two Powerful Videos on Physical Gold Supply Tightness (Liberty Blitzkrieg, Aug 14, 2013):

If the physical gold market is anywhere near as tight as these two market observers indicate, get ready for some serious fireworks in the precious metals markets. The first video is one that has been making the rounds in recent days. It’s an interview with Mihir Dange, co-founder of commodity trading firm Grafite Capital from the NYMEX, in which he discusses Chinese demand, backwardation and physical supply tightness.

The second video is an interview of Tarek El Mdaka, managing director at Kaloti Jewellery Group in Dubai. While it starts off slow, bear with it, as toward the end he states:

“After this drop [in price] we have 90 days order logbook. So we cannot fill the demand we have at this stage.”

These are must watch videos for anyone interested in the gold market. Enjoy!

Gold Backwardation Goes Mainstream … Reuters: ‘Run For Your Gold, There Is Not Enough For All’

From the article:

“That’s why a fall or rise in gold prices is not so relevant anymore. The monetary ‘fire alarm’ message, courtesy of the relationship between spot and futures prices, is run for your gold, there is not enough for all.”


Gold Backwardation (GOFO) Goes Mainstream (Liberty Blitzkrieg, July 21, 2013):

Back on April 19, I highlighted an excellent write up by Professor Antal Fekete on gold backwardation and the end of fractional reserve bullion banking titled: Who Said the Hydra Would Take it Lying Down. In it he wrote:

In waking up too late that there was a problem after gold futures markets have been flirting with backwardation for a year or so, officialdom was forced to act. Act it did in a typically haphazard fashion. A few days ago, on April 12 and 15 the paper gold market was demoralized by a ferocious attack on the lofty gold price. This in and of itself is proof that Bernanke is fully aware that permanent gold backwardation is imminent, and that it will create and unmanageable situation. It’s got to be stopped in its track at all hazards.

In fact, however, a lower gold price is making the problem more intractable, not less. The Fed is diving from the frying pan into the fire. This is the point missed by almost all observers and market analysts. They ignore the underlying flight into physical gold that continues unabated, in spite of (or, better still, because of) the panic in the paper gold market. The Fed’s intervention in bankrolling short interest is going to back-fire, for the following simple reason. The Fed’s strategy is inherently contradictory. A lower price for paper gold makes it easier, not harder, to demand delivery on maturing futures contracts.

Several months later it appears Professor Fekete’s comments have been spot on, and the “hydra” has continued to employ brute force on the paper gold market in an effort to shake whatever supply they can from the financial trees. Unfortunately for them, it’s not working and gold’s backwardation continues to expand. Zerohedge has done a great job covering this ahead of the mainstream media as usual, most recently here.

Amazingly , it appears the mainstream media is now picking up on this huge development. In an article two days ago Reuters wrote:

July 19 (IFR) – A dislocation in the gold futures market indicating that demand for physical delivery of the metal is now far outweighing supply has intensified in recent weeks, increasing concern in the market that the change may not be a momentary blip and participants may have become over-leveraged.

Read moreGold Backwardation Goes Mainstream … Reuters: ‘Run For Your Gold, There Is Not Enough For All’

Prof. Antal Fekete On Gold Takedown: ‘Who Said The Hydra Would Take It Lying Down … While Its Several Heads Were Being Chopped Off One – By – One?’

Professor Fekete on the Gold Smash: “Who Said the Hydra Would Take it Lying Down” (Liberty, Blitzkrieg, April 19 2013):

Ostensibly a lower gold price would solve the problem Bernanke has. Demoralized gold bugs would be forced out of their holdings through margin calls. Disillusioned investors would shun gold. This would make physical gold available to rescue the strapped gold futures market.

In fact, however, a lower gold price is making the problem more intractable, not less. The Fed is diving from the frying pan into the fire. This is the point missed by almost all observers and market analysts. They ignore the underlying flight into physical gold that continues unabated, in spite of (or, better still, because of) the panic in the paper gold market. The Fed’s intervention in bankrolling short interest is going to back-fire, for the following simple reason. The Fed’s strategy is inherently contradictory. A lower price for paper gold makes it easier, not harder, to demand delivery on maturing futures contracts.

– Professor Antal E. Fekete

Of all the articles I have read since the attack on the precious metals markets, this piece by Professor Fekete is the best one yet. I completely agree that this was an extremely desperate and brazen attempt by the Central Planners, one that is quite clearly backfiring big time.  My favorite excerpts are below:

In waking up too late that there was a problem after gold futures markets have been flirting with backwardation for a year or so, officialdom was forced to act. Act it did in a typically haphazard fashion. A few days ago, on April 12 and 15 the paper gold market was demoralized by a ferocious attack on the lofty gold price. This in and of itself is proof that Bernanke is fully aware that permanent gold backwardation is imminent, and that it will create and unmanageable situation. It’s got to be stopped in its track at all hazards.

Well, well, well. Gold is not the same as frozen pork bellies after all. The Hydra is not taking it lying down. The kid gloves have finally come off.

Read moreProf. Antal Fekete On Gold Takedown: ‘Who Said The Hydra Would Take It Lying Down … While Its Several Heads Were Being Chopped Off One – By – One?’

Backwardation In Gold And Silver

Backwardation in Gold And Silver (ZeroHedge, May 17, 2012):

On Monday, May 14, something happened that hasn’t happened since Dec of 2008.  Two successive near-month precious metals futures contracts were in backwardation at the same time.  To oversimplify, backwardation is when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price in the spot market.  It should not be possible for it to happen in gold and silver.

Read moreBackwardation In Gold And Silver

Physical Silver Surges To Record 30% Premium Over Spot, In Backwardation

Physical Silver Surges To Record 30% Premium Over Spot, In Backwardation (ZeroHedge, Jan. 6, 2012):

One of the main reasons why we have been not so focused on paper representations of real currencies (i.e., gold and silver) is that ever since the MF Global debacle, in which it became all too clear that if physical gold can be “hypothecated” via conflicting ownership, then there is no way that paper versions of precious metals are viable and indeed credible. After all, the only real owner at the end of the day is the certificate holder, which as we have explained before, is none other than DTCC’s Cede & Co. Good luck collecting when the daisy chain of counterparties starts falling. Which leaves physical. And for a good sense of what the “real” price of the metal is, not one determined by institutions whose interest it is to preserve the hegemony of paper, one can either try to procure gold and silver at a retail merchant, or one can look to the premium of a dedicated physical ETF over spot. Such as Eric Sprott’s PSLV which as of today is trading at an all time high premium of 30%! In other words, someone is willing to pay up to 30% over spot for the right to be closer to the physical metal than merely have a paper claim on a paper claim (pre hyper rehypothecation and what not). Incidentally the last NAV premium over spot record was back in April 2011 just as silver went parabolic and the entire commodity complex experienced the infamous May 1 takedown when it collapsed by $8 dollars in milliseconds on glaringly obvious coordinated intervention. Said otherwise, like back then, so now there is an actual shortage, manifesting itself in the premium. And while last time its was the price plunge which eased supply needs, we are not so sure how one will be able to spin a collapse of the current, far lower paper silver price.

But wait, there’s more: As Keith Weiner explains below, silver also happens to be in backwardation. While we have covered the topic before, here is Keith with his explanation of what this means, although for those who like the punchline here it is, as above: shortage.

The Arbitrageur: Silver In Backwardation

Read morePhysical Silver Surges To Record 30% Premium Over Spot, In Backwardation

Why Silver Is Headed To $500 Per Oz – Backwardation Explained

This excellent video is an absolute MUST-SEE for all that haven’t watched it yet:

Silver: Shortage This Decade, Will Be Worth More Than Gold (!!!)

The following video is old news for I. U. regulars.



Added: 02.03.2011

Only physical gold and silver are real, everything else is an illusion.

Exposed: The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Scam

More on gold and silver:

Silver:

Silver Touches Fresh 31 Year High of $34.90, US Mint Runs Out Of Bullion Blanks, Halts American Eagle Silver Coin Production

CNBC: Total Silver Demand At 127% ! – The Case For $130 Silver

Dollar Ready to Collapse, Silver Squeeze to Continue

Even The Royal Canadian Mint Now Says It’s Difficult To Secure Silver

Unprecedented: Silver Backwardation Surges To Over $1.00

Eric Sprott on Silver: ‘THERE IS NOTHING LEFT’

Fractal Analysis Suggests Silver to Reach $52 – $56 by May – June 2011

Read moreWhy Silver Is Headed To $500 Per Oz – Backwardation Explained