* * *
Apparently, having nothing else to comment on this morning, moments ago the president tweeted that as of this moment, the S&P just hit its latest, 40th YTD, all time high in 2017.
“RECORD HIGH FOR S & P 500!”
RECORD HIGH FOR S & P 500!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 29, 2017
Putting this declaration in context, in April 2016, Trump was feeling increasingly bearish about stocks. He told The Washington Post that they were overvalued and that the strong data that showed a healthy economy were essentially phony.
“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” Mr. Trump said.
By September, he was arguing that the Federal Reserve was propping up a “false economy” that is actually weak.
S&P 500 tech stocks have now fallen for 9 days in a row. The last time tech stocks declined for so many days in a row was in 2012, and that was the only other time in history when we have seen such a long losing streak. As I have stated before, the post-election “Trump rally” is officially done, and the market is starting to roll over as investors begin to realize that all of the buying momentum has completely evaporated. Tech stocks tend to be particularly volatile, and so the fact that they are starting to lead the way down should definitely be alarming to many in the investing community.
Of course it isn’t just tech stocks that are falling. The Dow was down another 59 points on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 has closed beneath its 50 day moving average for the very first time since the election. For those that have been waiting for a key technical signal before getting out of the market, there is one for you.
Despite a small beat in MoM data (-1.5% vs -1.9% exp), US factory orders plunged 5.6% YoY – the worst drop since September 2015. This extends the period of annual contraction to 20 months – a record streak of declines in US history and one which has always, without exception, coincided with recession…
The big drop was driven by a plunge in non-defense aircraft and parts… (even with a surge in car orders)
It’s probably nothing though…
Sorry but seriously!!
The average forward price-earnings ratio for the Energy sector has been 15.8x.
At the current 97x forward P/E, S&P Energy stocks trade 20 standard deviations rich to history!!
* * *