Month: March 2024

This week the Financial Times has published contents of a cache of leaked classified Russian documents said to lay out the country’s doctrine and strategy for tactical nuclear weapons use. Included in the documents is info on the Kremlin’s minimum criteria for using tactical nukes.

The criteria outlined in the secret files range “from an enemy incursion on Russian territory to more specific triggers, such as the destruction of 20% of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines,” according to FT.

The question of the possibility of Russia and NATO stumbling toward nuclear war is without doubt heavy on the minds of many this week, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron’s Monday comments wherein he raised sending Western troops to fight Russia in Ukraine and said of the possibility, “nothing should be ruled out.”

Putin appeared to respond directly in his Thursday state of the nation televised address, spelling out: “Everything that they are coming up with now, with which they threaten the entire world – all this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization – don’t they understand this, or what?”

“They must ultimately understand that we also have weapons – and they know about it, just as I now said  – we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” he warned.

As for tactical nuke usage, Russia’s tactical arsenal has more limited range in comparison to strategic weapons, and thus are designed and intended for the possibility of a ‘nearer’ war in Europe or Asia.

But worrisomely, the FT review of the documents (which date from 2008-2014) finds that the Kremlin likely has a threshold “lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted, according to experts who reviewed and verified the documents.” Experts cited in the FT say the contents of the leaks likely remain part of Moscow’s current nuclear doctrine.

The documents show that Russia has recently rehearsed scenarios involving war with China. Per the leaks and the FT report:

Read moreLeaked Military Files Show Russia’s Nuclear Strike Threshold Lower Than Previously Known

Russian President Vladimir Putin used the occasion of his much anticipated annual state of the nation address to directly warn NATO that sending Western troops to fight in Ukraine could result in nuclear war.

He explained that allegations from Western officials saying Russia intends to attack Europe are “nonsense”—after on Monday French President Emmanuel Macron really escalated the rhetoric by telling a security forum in Paris that sending Western troops to Ukraine “cannot be ruled out”.

“Everything that they are coming up with now, with which they threaten the entire world – all this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization – don’t they understand this, or what?” Putin said.

“They must ultimately understand that we also have weapons – and they know about it, just as I now said  – we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” he warned.

On the battlefield, the Ukrainians have continued their retreat amid defeat in several villages and towns outside of Avdiivka. As we previously analyzed, it seems the more that evidence of Russia’s ‘winning’ the war becomes obvious, the more desperate the actions and rhetoric out of NATO officials becomes.

Read morePutin Warns Of Nuclear War If West Sends Troops To Fight In Ukraine