Month: May 2023

Game Over For Turkey As Net Reserves Turn Negative, Morgan Stanley Sees Lira Collapsing

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– Game Over For Turkey As Net Reserves Turn Negative, Morgan Stanley Sees Lira Collapsing:

One week ago, when the Turkish Lira first tumbled below 20 against the USD, we warned that much more pain was in stock based on a rather dire analysis by Goldman of the central bank’s reserve position, a much more ominous factor for the coming currency collapse then Erdogan’s reelection.

Since then it’s gone from bad to worse, with Reuters also jumping on the bearish lira bandwagon and reporting that the Turkish central bank’s net forex reserves dropped into negative territory for the first time since 2002, standing at $-151.3 million on May 19, as the bank – following Erdogan’s strict orders – scrambled to counter demand for hard currencies (USD, gold, crypto) ahead of Sunday’s runoff vote.

Forex demand in Turkey surged to record levels ahead of May 14 on companies’ and individuals’ expectations that the lira, which lost 44% in 2021 and 30% in 2022, will plunge after the vote (spoiler alert: those fears have been justified).

As we discussed last week, the central bank’s forex reserves have sagged in recent years due to costly market interventions and other efforts to cool forex demand.  The bank’s net reserves dropped by $2.48 billion in the week to May 19, to their lowest level since February 2002. They have dropped $27.7 billion since the end of 2022, and were at negative $3 billion as of May 19. The net forex reserves would be even more negative if outstanding swaps, courtesy of foreign central banks and which stood at $33.50 billion on Wednesday, are deducted (as they should be since the CBRT will have to repay these at some point).

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The former commander of the Australian special forces, Ricardo Bosi, made a sensational statement: “Ukraine has been the center of globalists for decades … The CIA has been working in Ukraine for 70 years” (Video)

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For your information.

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More Than 50,000 US Stores Will Close By 2027 According To UBS

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– More Than 50,000 US Stores Will Close By 2027 According To UBS:

“Looking forward over the next 5 years, we estimate -50K stores will close on the current store base of ~940K stores in the US… a protracted US recession would put downward pressure and could result in up to 90K closures.

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Watch: Fierce Serb-Kosovo Clashes Leave Dozens Of NATO Troops Injured

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– Watch: Fierce Serb-Kosovo Clashes Leave Dozens Of NATO Troops Injured:

Unrest has been ongoing for days in Serbian minority regions of northern Kosovo after controversial municipal elections resulted in ethnic Albanian mayors being installed in Serb-dominant communities. But what started as clashes between ethnic Serbs and Kosovo police has spiraled into violence as NATO troops have struggled to crackdown on raging protests.

Reuters has confirmed that NATO peacekeeping troops have been wounded and injured in the town of Zvecan, following Serb protesters attempting to gain entry into a local government building. NATO soldiers are also reportedly trying to protect other municipal buildings.

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Taiwan Says It’s In Talks On Being Brought Under US Nuclear Umbrella

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– Taiwan Says It’s In Talks On Being Brought Under US Nuclear Umbrella:

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Taiwan’s foreign minister said last week that the US and Taiwan are in talks on the possibility of the island being brought under Washington’s nuclear umbrella, a step that would make a catastrophic war between the US and China much more likely.

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu made the comments before Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan. Wu declined to detail the talks when pressed if Taiwan had asked the US to bring the island into its nuclear umbrella.

“Regarding the discussion of this issue with the United States, it is not suitable for me to make it public here,” Wu said, according to The South China Morning Post.

Many of the US’s allies are considered to be under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella, including Japan, South Korea, and every member of NATO.

Giving such a guarantee to Taiwan would mean the US could use nuclear weapons if China invades the island or if war breaks out by other means. According to the SCMP report:

Read moreTaiwan Says It’s In Talks On Being Brought Under US Nuclear Umbrella