Secret German MoD Document Lays Out Path To World War III

Pravda summarizes the schedule of the scenario.

Russia’s at first covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West begins in July. Cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are anticipated, primarily in the Baltic states. Clashes occur, which Russia uses as an excuse to initiate large-scale military exercises on its territory and in Belarus.

According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. From December 2024, an artificially induced “border conflict” and “clashes with numerous casualties” unfold in the vicinity of the Suwalki Gap (Suwalki Corridor).

At a moment when the United States may be without a leader for several weeks after the elections, Russia, with the support of Belarus, repeats the 2014 invasion of Ukraine but on NATO territory. In May 2025, NATO decides on containment measures, and on D-Day, NATO deploys 300,000 military personnel to the eastern flank, including 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr.

The document is officially called a “training scenario,” although that will do little to allay fears that NATO could face a confrontation with Russia as it looks increasingly likely Ukraine will lose the war.

The Germany Ministry of Defense refused to comment on details of the document, but said it was “taking into consideration all scenarios, including extremely unlikely ones, is part of daily military activity, especially in training.”

As we highlighted last week, Sweden is also cautioning its citizens to prepare for war with Russia, saying the country is ill-prepared to cope with the sudden onset of hostilities.