– Restart Of Student Loan Payments To Slash Household Spending By $15.8 Billion Every Month:
Two weeks ago, in “The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse“, we showed how the three year-long payment forbearance had artificially boosted disposable incomes by tens of billions. And, more importantly, with repayment on said loans set to resume in a few months, personal spending was set to collapse.
Today, in a note from Barclays economist Adirenne Yih (available to pro subscribers in the usual place), the bank has published a detailed calculation of just how much disposable spending would shrink by as a result of the student loan payment restart. In a nutshell, the bank estimates a potential aggregate $15.8bn monthly headwind – or $190 billion per year – to US spending as the average student debt holder sees an incremental monthly payment of ~$390 beginning this fall. This represents an ~8% headwind to monthly personal income, affecting 16% of the US population, and adding pressure to not just consumer discretionary and apparel, but all retail spending.
For those who missed it the first time, here is the background:
Student loan payments are set to resume in the coming months. For more than 40 million Americans carrying student loan debt, the timeline to resume making payments is now on the horizon. The debt ceiling deal passed earlier this month paves the way for student loan payments to resume as early as August 29, 2023, per the latest update from the U.S. Department f Education: Federal Student Aid. For most, this will be the first time making payments since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020
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