US Doesn’t Expect Ukraine Peace Talks In 2023: Leaked Doc

Among the more interesting content to come out of the trove of Pentagon document leaks is a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment which says the US doesn’t expect there to be any peace talks between Russia and Ukraine until at least 2024.

The Washington Post reported on the document this week, quoting the classified briefing as follows: “Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all considered scenarios,” the DIA report reads. The DIA document forecasts that even in a scenario of Ukraine regaining a “significant” amount of territory back and with “unsustainable losses on Russian forces,” this would not lead to peace talks.

Thus it appears the US intelligence community is taking Putin’s resolve very seriously. At the same time, policy-makers in the Biden administration have really done nothing to push for negotiations between the warring sides. In fact, they’ve been accused of doing the opposite: sabotaging the possibility of talks anytime soon while encouraging a military solution (along with the UK), despite massive losses to the Ukrainian side.

According to the WaPo report:

“Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all considered scenarios,” says the document, which has not been disclosed previously.

The assessment, based on close U.S. scrutiny of each side’s troop counts, weaponry and equipment, could galvanize the war’s critics who have called on major powers such as the United States and China to push for Kyiv and Moscow to reach a settlement rather than allow to drag on a conflict that has displaced millions and left hundreds of thousands dead or wounded.

The DIA analysis further suggests things will get bleaker, with heavier casualties, before there is a possibility of peace. The Washington Post continues to comment on the doc as follows:

A stalemate also will result in Ukraine enacting the “full mobilization” of its remaining eligible population, the document predicts, sending more young men to the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine probably will intensify its reliance on strikes in Russian territory, the document says, a dynamic that has disquieted some U.S. officials fearful that such attacks could compel President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict or give China cause to begin providing lethal support to Russia.

So far there’s no evidence to suggest that China has actually provided Russia with defense aid since the start of the invasion. President Xi’s ’12-point peace plan’ has also not gotten anywhere, despite Zelensky having initially shown some degree of openness to work with China in paving a path toward negotiations.

According to the Washington Post, Pentagon leaks are “a marked departure" from US's public statements "about the vitality of Ukraine’s military,” and will "embolden critics who feel the" US-NATO "should do more to push for" diplomacy. https://t.co/z4eaOGmwgX

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) April 12, 2023

Meanwhile, The Hill and many other outlets have continued to publish on the Pentagon leaks, despite NSC spokesman John Kirby this weak urging the media not to. For example, The Hill has what it calls “7 Big Revelations So Far” from the leaked classified reports. More revelations have continued to hit global headlines on a daily basis this week.