– Western sanctions and Russian perceptions (The Vineyard of the Saker, Feb 16, 2015):
I parse the Russian media (corporate and social) on a daily basis and I am always amazed at the completely different way the issue of western sanctions is discussed. I think that it is important and useful for me to share this with those of you who do not speak Russian.
First, nobody in Russia believes that the sanctions will be lifted. Nobody. Of course, all the Russian politicians say that sanctions are wrong and not conducive to progress, but these are statements for external consumption. In interviews for the Russian media or on talk shows, there is a consensus that sanctions will never be lifted no matter what Russia does.
Second, nobody in Russia believes that sanctions are a reaction to Crimea or to the Russian involvement in the Donbass. Nobody. There is a consensus that the Russian policy towards Crimea and the Donbass are not a cause, but a pretext for the sanctions. The real cause of the sanctions is unanimously identified as what the Russians called the “process of sovereignization”, i.e. the fact that Russia is back, powerful and rich, and that she dares openly defy and disobey the “Axis of Kindness”.
Third, there is a consensus in Russia that the correct response to the sanctions is double: a) an external realignment of the Russian economy away from the West and b) internal reforms which will make Russia less dependent on oil exports and on the imports of various goods and technologies.
Fourth, nobody blames Putin for the sanctions or for the resulting hardships. Everybody fully understands that Putin is hated by the West not for doing something wrong, but for doing something right. In fact, Putin’s popularity is still at an all-time high.
Fifth, there is a wide agreement that the current Russian vulnerability is the result of past structural mistakes which now must be corrected, but nobody suggests that the return of Crimea to Russia or the Russian support for Novorussia were wrong or wrongly executed.
Finally, I would note that while Russia is ready for war, there is no bellicose mood at all. Most Russians believe that the US/NATO/EU don’t have what it takes to directly attack Russia, they believe that the junta in Kiev is doomed and they believe that sending the Russian tanks to Kiev (or even Novorussia) would have been a mistake.
The above is very important because if you consider all these factors you can come to an absolutely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime.
In fact, if anything, these sanctions strengthen the Eurasian Sovereignists by allowing them to blame all the pain of economic reforms on the sanctions and they weaken the Atlantic Integrationists by making any overt support for, or association with, the West a huge political liability.
But the Eurocretins in Brussels don’t care I suppose, as long as they feel relevant or important, even if it is only in their heads.
Neo-liberals are showing themselves to be lacking in experience, diplomatic skills, cultural sophistication, falling into the trap of mirror effect and a total lack of understanding that agreement requires compromise. It is humiliating to observe such a group of arrogant and incompetent “leaders” try to force the world into it’s ethnocentric and ideological models of World Order. No compromise means no solution, and no solution means war…we have had cyber and currency war, and the next stage is beyond any sane human beings comprehension. However, history shows that these occasional fits of insanity take on a life of their own. Beyond a certain tipping point, there can be no turning back. Knowing our leadership is comprised of idiots will be sparse comfort if by will or by accident a shot is fired and one party pushes the other too far. How Canada became involved in this sad state of affairs given our history of middle of the road common sense under Pearson, Trudeau and others is perhaps the saddest part of all. The fuses are burning short in so many places, and sociopaths are running the show, leaving those of us along for the ride in perhaps the most vulnerable point in our history, War, depression or death are nothing in comparison to the loss of soul, character and tradition taking pace before our very eyes. Fate perhaps, but so unnecessary.