Bob Janjuah Sees ‘Final Parabolic Spike Up’ To 1575 Followed By Up To 50% Market Crash

Bob Janjuah Sees “Final Parabolic Spike Up” To 1575 Followed By Up To 50% Market Crash (ZeroHedge, Feb 5, 2013):

Bob Janjuah may nt have rvrted to his RBS wrtng style of yore, yet, but the New Nrml appears to also fnly b getting to 1 of our fvrte strategists, who has finally gone bold, ALL CAPS.From Bob’s World: Are We There Yet?

I last wrote in November (Risk not on?) and since then markets have broadly continued to track the medium-term bigger picture outlook set out in that note, as well as the shorter-term tactical “S&P500 1450/1475 rule? that I also discussed in that piece and in my earlier September note (Stop Loss Update). I wanted to publish now to provide some extra clarity:

Read moreBob Janjuah Sees ‘Final Parabolic Spike Up’ To 1575 Followed By Up To 50% Market Crash

Presenting The S&P500’s 50 Point Surge Courtesy Of The Illegal ‘Geithner Leak’

Flashback:

Investigative Reporter Mark Pittman Responsible For Bloomberg News Lawsuit Against The Federal Reserve Dies At 52


Presenting The S&P500’s 50 Point Surge Courtesy Of The Illegal “Geithner Leak” (ZeroHedge, Jan 19, 2013):

Yesterday we broke the news of what is prima facie evidence, sourced by none other than the Federal Reserve’s official August 16, 2007 conference call transcript, that then-NY Fed president and FOMC Vice Chairman Tim Geithner leaked material, non-public, and very much market moving information (the “Geithner Leak”) to at least one banker, in this case then Bank of America CEO Ken Leiws, in advance of a formal Fed announcement – an act explicitly prohibited by virtually every capital markets law (and reading thereof). It was refreshing to see that at least several other mainstream outlets, including Reuters, The Hill and the NYT, carried this story which is far more significant than Season 1 of Lance Armstrong’s produced theatrical confession and rating bonanza. It is notable that Richmond Fed’s Jeff Lacker who made the inadvertent (or very much advertent) disclosure has not backed down from his prior allegation and told the NYT yesterday that “My understanding was that President Geithner had discussed a reduction in the discount rate with these banks in connection with these initiatives.” What, however, the mainstream media has not touched upon, yet, is just how profound the market response to the Geithner Leak was, and by implication, how much money those who were aware of what the Fed was about to do made. Perhaps, it should because as we show below, the implications were staggering. But perhaps what is even more relevant, is why the Fed’s previously disclosed details of Mr. Geithner’s daily actions at the time, have exactly no mention of any of this.

Backstory

Before we get into the prime of today’s narrative, a quick detour.

Read morePresenting The S&P500’s 50 Point Surge Courtesy Of The Illegal ‘Geithner Leak’

S&P 500: It Really Is Different (Again) This Time

It Really Is Different (Again) This Time (ZeroHedge, Dec 19, 2012):

Despite the seemingly generational destruction to household and bank balance sheets and an entirely unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy reponse, investors would never know it given the market’s reactions from the 2009 lows relative to its rally from the 2003 lows. Different this time? hhmmm… Worried about gold prices falling also? Doesn’t look like we learned anything from the ‘Debt Ceiling’ debate either…
S&P 500 – 2003-low rally vs 2009-low rally; unbelievable!

What is most shocking is the cataclysmic drop we suffered did nothing to quell the status quo’s belief that one more bubble will do it and save us all… This rally off the 2009 lows feels excessive (and is given the real backdrop) but is in reality not so different from the Greenspan-to-Bernanke handoff bubble that led to this idiocy…

Read moreS&P 500: It Really Is Different (Again) This Time

Famous Investor Marc Faber’s Asset Protection Plan: ‘Buy A Machine Gun’, No Really, ‘You’re Right, Buy A Tank’ (Video)

Marc Faber’s Asset Protection Plan: “Buy A Machine Gun”, No Really, “You’re Right, Buy A Tank” (ZeroHedge, Nov 7, 2012):

Trish Regan and Adam Johnson do their best to hold themselves together in this sublime rant by ‘Gloom, Boom & Doom’s Marc Faber on Bloomberg TV as he sees Obama’s re-election as “very negative for the economy”. From his view that the market should be down at least 20% – and maybe 50%, to the implied ignorance of both of the candidates, he believes fervently that the “standards of living of people in the western hemisphere will continue to decline.” Faber views Obama’s re-election as one of many unintended consequences of market manipulation (since Democrat attacks on the wealthy were ‘enabled’ by their profiteering from Bernanke’s money printing) and sees the need to protect one’s assets “with a gun, a machine gun... or perhaps a tank.” He concludes with a stunner as he exclaims his view doubting Obama will make it through the whole four-year term because “there will be so many scandals” since “there is so much smoke, there must be some fire!”
The pre-amble is useful and well worth listening to as Faber describes exactly what is occurring in the world…

The good stuff begins around 7:30 as Faber goes Baumgartner… and gives the Bloomberg hosts a taste of reality we suspect they have not heard from their run-of-the-mill portfolio manager sheep guests…

Faber on President Obama’s reelection:

“I am surprised with the reelection of Mr. Obama. The S&P is only down like 30 points. I would have thought that the market on his reelection should be down at least 50%…I think Mr. Obama is a disaster for business and a disaster for the United States. Not that Mr. Romney would be much better, but the Republicans understand the problem of excessive debt better than Mr. Obama who basically doesn’t care about piling up debt. You also have in the background Mr. Bernanke, who with artificially low interest rates enables the debt to essentially escalate endlessly.”

Read moreFamous Investor Marc Faber’s Asset Protection Plan: ‘Buy A Machine Gun’, No Really, ‘You’re Right, Buy A Tank’ (Video)

Hugh Hendry: ‘I Have No Idea Where The Stock Market Is Going To Be’ … But ‘I Am Long Gold And Short The S&P’ (Video)

Related info:

How To Buy Bullion (What To Ask And What To Own):

As far as precious metals go, you need to:

  1. Own actual Bullion
  2. Store it yourself (not in a bank)

Only physical gold is real. Do NOT own soon-to-be worthless paper!


Hugh Hendry: “I Have No Idea Where The Stock Market Is Going To Be”… But “I Am Long Gold And Short The S&P” (ZeroHedge, Oct 25, 2012):

One of the best presentations at this year’s Economist Buttonwood gathering (which is still being live-streamed here), was, as usually happens, Hugh Hendry. The contrarian Scotsman, who describes his style as one where he “positions ourselves outside the accepted belief system”, managed to say in 15 minutes what takes most pundits hours, and that’s without the appendices, charts, long-winded essays, and graphs. Because when it comes to conveying ideas, simplicity always wins, and few are as good at speaking in simple, logical terms, as Hugh Hendry.

Read moreHugh Hendry: ‘I Have No Idea Where The Stock Market Is Going To Be’ … But ‘I Am Long Gold And Short The S&P’ (Video)

VOLUME CRASHES As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak And VIX Plunges To Five Year Lows

Volume Crashes As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak And VIX Plunges To Five Year Lows (ZeroHedge, Aug 13, 2012):

The cash S&P 500 closed very modestly in the red – but tried its best into the end of the day-session to get green to make it seven-in-a-row. After-hours, amid heavier block size, S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) pushed up to the overnight highs and tried to hold green but failed. NYSE volume plunged – almost unbelievably to be frank – to its lowest non-holiday-trading day volume in over a decade. Intraday ranges remain tiny and average trade size unremarkable as ES is still suffering from the post-Knight slashing in volume.

Credit underperformed once again – though a late-day surge up to Friday’s closing VWAP in HYG (on decent volume) suggested sizable sellers as opposed to buyers (though some arb against intrinsics is likely too). All-in-all, an odd day (again): TSYs unch (though was -3-4bps intra), USD -0.18% (EUR +0.38%), Gold/Silver -1.2%, WTI unch (after a plungefest earlier that recovered about half its loss), Copper -0.7%. VIX clattered down to a 13 handle into the close – the lowest close in over 5 years – but notably unlike March when we were down here – the term-structure is considerably steeper.

Tech and Financials were the only sectors green today as Materials and Energy underperformed. Equities and broad risk-assets remained relatively in sync and correlated but by the close, US stocks had become modestly rich. Are we witnessing Gross’ death of equities?

Stunningly – today’s NYSE volume was 3 standard-deviations below its 9 year trend lower on an EXPONENTIAL chart!!! – this is easily the lowest NYSE volume day of trading that is not a holiday!!

Just to be clear – and with no hyperbole – NYSE volume has trended exponentially lower for over 8 years and today’s volume was still a 3-Sigma outlier to the downside!!

Clearly something broke with Knight’s algo going full-retard! ES volume since has plunged from an average over the last 4 months of 2.2 million contracts to an average over the last few days of only 1.25 million contracts – a 45% plunge instantaneously!!

The plunge in realized volatility given the extremely low ranges of the last few days has dragged VIX to five-year lows – though the term-structure is at its steepest  in years also now…

Read moreVOLUME CRASHES As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak And VIX Plunges To Five Year Lows

Lobbying Works: The Lobbying Index Has Now Beaten The S&P 500 For 12 Years In A Row (Video)

‘Shocking’. Just ‘shocking’. What a shocking surprise to exactly nobody.


Lobbying Works! Big Spenders Reap Big Stock Gains Says Trennert (Yahoo Finance, July 23, 2012):

Follow the money,” the simple but famous instruction whispered to Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward by his “Deep Throat” source, was enough to crack the Watergate scandal. Today, 40 years later, those very same words appear to have blown the lid off of another political outrage in our nation’s capital: the corrupting influence of money in politics.

While this financial connection, in and of itself, is hardly a great revelation, new analysis from Strategas Research Partners shows irrefutable evidence that companies are getting a real bang for their buck on the money they spend trying to influence lawmakers. By tracking the 50 companies that spend the most money — as a percentage of their total assets — on lobbying, the so-called Lobbying Index proves it’s a darn good investment.

How good? The Lobbying Index has now beaten the S&P 500 for 12 years in a row.

Read moreLobbying Works: The Lobbying Index Has Now Beaten The S&P 500 For 12 Years In A Row (Video)

The Scariest Equity Market Chart Around … It’s Different This Time!

It’s Different This Time: The Scariest Equity Market Chart Around (ZeroHedge, July 16, 2012):

While analogs for periods past have been shown time and time again, the striking similarity of the last four months of this year and the same period last year is becoming extremely worrisome. The rips and dips are of almost perfectly equal size and duration and retail and professional participation is also very similar. July 21st marked the top last year after failing to break the highs of a July 4th week peak (which occurred on low average trade size). It would appear the bulls are hoping that it’s different this time – or else it is very scary with S&P 500 set for the magic 1200 Bernanke Put strike very soon.

Each green and red arrow is identical from the current period to last year’s. Notice the dark red arrow indicating the yellow bar (h/t @eminiwatch) indicating amateur or retail investors getting wrong-footed and then a subsequent failed rally with a lower high… which lead to the plunge – that would take us below 1200 in the S&P 500 currently

The plunge in stocks – in case you were wondering – would imply a 10Y TSY rate around the magic 1% mark. While we do not use longer-term CONTEXTual models for trading, it is perhaps interesting to note how the highly correlated markets’ behavior of May would have played out to now – implying an S&P 500 of 1200 (based on those risk-asset relationships from May)…

Read moreThe Scariest Equity Market Chart Around … It’s Different This Time!

As M2 Money Supply Rolls Over, The Stock Market Will Follow

As M2 Money Supply Rolls Over, the Stock Market Will Follow (ZeroHedge, July 11, 2012):

M2 money supply rose sharply, driving the stock market higher. Now it has peaked and rolled over. That does not bode well for the Bull market.

Our Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh kindly shared a chart of M2 money supply and the S&P 500 stock market index (SPX). The correlation between expansion of the money supply and the stock market is worth studying.

The primary point is that “real growth,” i.e. rising wages and profits powered by increases in productivity, does not require massive growth of M2.

Here is Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh’s explanatory commentary:

“He who controls the money supply of a nation controls the nation.” President James A. Garfield

Except during periods of exceptional earnings growth like we had during the pre-internet computer boom when companies like Microsoft, Oracle and Intel were improving business productivity by leaps and bounds, the trend of the stock market (and economic growth in general) tends to closely follow changes in Fed controlled money supply growth.

Read moreAs M2 Money Supply Rolls Over, The Stock Market Will Follow

Marc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching (Video)

Marc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching (ZeroHedge, May 10, 2012):

When given the opportunity to expand on his thoughts, Marc Faber, of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report, provides dismally clarifying detail on the state of the world. In this excellent (must-watch on a day when nothing changed but European stocks dead-cat-bounced) Bloomberg TV interview, the admittedly ursine Faber reflects on the US (slowing of revenue growth and the real linkages to European stress) noting that unless we get a huge QE3, there will be “a crash, like in 1987” noting he believes we have seen the highs for the year; on the likelihood of QE3 (agreeing with us that the Fed won’t act unless asset markets plunge first); on Greece’s exit of the Euro and whether policy-makers can manage the exit properly “bureaucrats in Brussels and the media are brainwashing everybody that if Greece exited the euro, it would be a disaster. My view is the best would be to dissolve the whole euro zone“; on the difference between investment markets and economic reality (thanks to financial repression); and on the global race-to-debase “I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses. The bureaucrats in Brussels are completely useless functionaries“.

Faber on whether he still thinks that profit margins will shrink and record profits seen will be no more for U.S. corporations:

Read moreMarc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching (Video)

Everything Not Nailed Down Being Bought

$15 for a loaf of bread … coming to a store near you.


Everything Not Nailed Down Being Bought (ZeroHedge, Feb. 27, 2012):

When in doubt – buy. When in doubt what – everything. As the chart below shows starting with the open of the US market, literally everything has been bought: stocks, bonds, crude, gold, and ‘logically’, the VIX. It took the market virtually no time to remember that when trillions in liquidity are being injected into the market courtesy of central planners, a downtick is verboten. Next up: waiting for WTI $110. Should take a few minutes at most.

Gold Hits Record High, Global Stocks Plunge, 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to Record (Aug 18, 2011)

Panic:

DAX -5,68%
DOW JONES -4,21%
S&P 500 -4,36%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE -4,68%
NASDAQ 100 -4,70%

Global Stocks Plunge as 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to Record; Gold Rises (Bloomberg, August 18, 2011):

Stocks sank while Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields to a record low, amid growing concern the economy is slowing and speculation that European banks lack sufficient capital. Gold climbed to a record, while oil led commodities lower.

The MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks lost 4.2 percent at 10:22 a.m. in New York as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 4.3 percent and Germany’s DAX Index plunged as much as 7 percent, the most on a closing basis since 2008. Ten-year Treasury note yields slid as much as 19 basis points to 1.97 percent as rates on similar-maturity Canadian and British debt also reached all-time lows. The dollar appreciated versus 14 of 16 major peers, climbing 1 percent to $1.4286 per euro. Gold futures rallied as much as 2 percent to $1,829.70 an ounce, while oil slid 5.2 percent.

U.S. Stocks Drop Sharply, Following Europe (New York Times, August 18, 2011):

Stocks on Wall Street fell sharply on Thursday, following the trend set in Asia and Europe as more disappointing economic data emerged and concerns again focused on the financial sector.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down more than 4 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was down about 450 points, or 4 percent, and the Nasdaq was down nearly 5 percent. Major indexes in Europe were down 3 to 5 percent.

The yield on the Treasury’s 10-year note fell to a record low as investors turned to the safety of fixed-income securities.

Marc Faber: ‘I Think We Are All Doomed’


Added: 24.02.2011

(Complete PDF transcript)

All who enjoy hearing a meaty Marc Faber fire and brimstone sermon, that cuts through the bullshit, will be happy to know that the Gloom, Boom and Doom author conducted a 40 minute interview with the McAlvany Financial Group, which covers all the usual suspects: gold, silver, precious and industrial metals, the “crack up boom”, the future of the Ponzi and capital markets in general and much more. Of course, it wouldn’t be a Faber interview without the requisite soundbite: “I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it.” Of course, on a long enough timeline…

Key extract from the Faber speech:

Read moreMarc Faber: ‘I Think We Are All Doomed’

At $1.3 Billion, Insider Sales Surge To Highest Of 2011, Double Last Week’s Total

The latest S&P 500 insider buys/sells report is out, and it is more of the same. Looking at the 8 inside purchases for a total of $21.4 million one may say that the buying interest was not too shabby. That is until one realizes that there was one purchase for $20.2 million by News Corp insider skewing the entire distribution.

Where the fun was, however, is as usual on the selling side, where insiders dumped the biggest amount of shares so far in 2011, selling over $1.3 billion worth of stock (a 61.4x insider buying to selling ratio), which was nearly double last week’s $749 million.

Read moreAt $1.3 Billion, Insider Sales Surge To Highest Of 2011, Double Last Week’s Total

Why The Elite Hates Gold: There Has Been No Recovery In The S&P 500 When It Is Deflated By Gold

Gold (and silver) is the real money of the elite. The elite really loves gold, everything else is worthless paper to them.

The elite only ‘fears’ and ‘hates’ gold because it shows that all those statements on recovery, green shoots, stimulus packages etc. made by their elite puppets (like Obama, Biden, Bernanke, Clinton, Brown, Darling, King, Merkel, Sarkozy, Berlusconi, Papandreou to name a few) are lies.

There is no recovery and there has nothing been done to help the people. Those elite puppets do everything in their power to loot and bankrupt the people and shovel taxpayer money into the hands of their elite masters.

Only 1 % of the people own gold, which means that the elite can rape 99 % of the people – that remain totally unprotected – with their plans and then present the New World Order as only solution.

“When a country embarks on deficit financing and inflationism you wipe out the middle class and wealth is transferred from the middle class and the poor to the rich.”
– Ron Paul

See also:

Bank of England: US Faces Same Problems As Greece; EU Must Become A Federalised Fiscal Union With Central Power In Order to Survive

EU Bids For Unprecedented Power Over National Budgets

I highly recommend that you read Alan Greenspan’s famous essay on ‘Gold and Economic Freedom’ below.


Why There is Fear and Resentment of the Power of Gold to Discover Value in the Real Economy

sp-500-deflated-by-gold

There were a few questions raised about the note on the long term chart of the SP 500 deflated by gold which was posted last night, and which is reproduced here above, which read “This is why the financial engineers like Bernanke hate and fear gold; it defies their plans and powers.”

The chart shows something that most investors have suspected. There has been no genuine recovery in the price of stocks since the decline that cannot be fully explained by the monetary inflation of the dollar, as can be discovered by the ultimate store of value, which is gold.

I thought that this was a fairly straightforward observation, but it apparently jarred a few people and their thinking. So perhaps we have some new readers who are not familiar with the long standing animosity towards gold that is uniformly expressed by all those who promote centralized command and control economies, from both the left and the right.

Read moreWhy The Elite Hates Gold: There Has Been No Recovery In The S&P 500 When It Is Deflated By Gold

MUST HEAR: Panic And Loathing From The S&P 500 Pits

wall-street

“Guys this is probably the craziest I have seen it down here ever.”  (At 05:40)

Here it is, memorialized for the generations and away from the now openly ridiculous disinformation propaganda of the mainstream media, just what a full market meltdown panic sounds like: straight from the epicenter, the S&P 500 pits. Luckily open ouctry still exists, if at least for shock value.

For a first hand account of the most shocking 15 minutes in recent market history:

Market Crash (MP3 7.97 MB)

Fat finger my ass.

S&P Threatens to Downgrade Japan’s Government Debt

Japan’s debt at risk. Is US next? (CNN Money):

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating Tuesday. That’s reigniting fears that the U.S. could be next.



TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services threatened Tuesday to downgrade Japan’s government debt by a notch, saying the young government isn’t fixing the nation’s bloated finances as fast as expected.

Lowering the outlook on Japan’s AA rating to negative from stable, S&P said: “The Japanese government’s diminishing economic policy flexibility may lead to a downgrade unless measures can be taken to stem fiscal and deflationary pressures.”

The surprise threat to Japan’s rating, the third-highest that S&P assigns, hit the yen and Japanese government bond prices and prompted concern that the move might dim previously robust prospects for bond issuance throughout Asia over the near term.

“The ratings on Japan could fall by one notch if economic data remain weak and measures to boost medium-term growth are not forthcoming, given the country’s high government-debt burden and its weak demographic profile,” S&P said.

Read moreS&P Threatens to Downgrade Japan’s Government Debt

S&P downgrades California’s credit rating again as cash crunch looms

arnold_schwarzenegger_001

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – California’s main debt rating was cut on Wednesday by Standard & Poor’s, which said the government of the most populous U.S. state could nearly run out of cash in March — and another rating cut might follow.

The state government’s budget gap of nearly $20 billion over the next year and a half leaves it in a precarious situation, requiring tax increases or spending cuts, either of which may slow economic recovery, the agency said in a statement.

See also:

California’s worst-in-nation credit rating cut again (Sacramento Bee)

California downgraded by S&P, weighing on state’s bonds (MarketWatch)

“If economic or revenue trends substantially falter, we could lower the state rating during the next six to 12 months,” S&P said after cutting the rating on $63.9 billion of California’s general obligation debt one notch to A- from A.

The new level is four notches above “junk” status, a level at which many investors refuse to buy debt.

“The big question is, is there any fear they will get downgraded out of investment grade (so) you may have to sell … that’s where I think it would get interesting or hairy,” said Eaton Vance portfolio manager Evan Rourke.

Bond prices did not move much, though, since many expected the downgrade, he said.

S&P’s downgrade was overdue because the state’s revenues have been so weak, said Dick Larkin, director of credit analysis at Herbert J. Sims Co Inc in Iselin, New Jersey. “Frankly I can’t understood why it took S&P so long,” he said. “They could have made that decision back in September.”

$1 BILLION SHORT IN MARCH

Read moreS&P downgrades California’s credit rating again as cash crunch looms

Meredith Whitney on CNBC: ‘I Haven’t Been This Bearish in a Year’; ‘S&P Expensive Across the Board’; Expects Next Leg Down in the Housing Market Soon



Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) — Meredith Whitney, the analyst who cut her rating on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month, said bank stocks are overvalued after rallying faster than the U.S. economy and share prices will fall to tangible book value.

“I haven’t been this bearish in a year,” Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC, said today in a CNBC television interview. “I think you can sit on cash for a little bit, because you have to wait for a leg down in valuations. The S&P is expensive across the board.”

Read moreMeredith Whitney on CNBC: ‘I Haven’t Been This Bearish in a Year’; ‘S&P Expensive Across the Board’; Expects Next Leg Down in the Housing Market Soon