By The Time Operation Twist 1 Is Over, The Fed Will Have Quietly Completed 40% Of Operation Twist 2 As Well

By The Time Operation Twist 1 Is Over, The Fed Will Have Quietly Completed 40% Of Operation Twist 2 As Well (ZeroHedge, May 20, 2012):

By the time Operation Twist (1) ends in just over 40 days time, on June 30, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to his previously announced “loose” target, will hope to have extended the average maturity of all bonds in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to a record of roughly 100 months from 75 month at the onset of the program in October 2011. After all the sole purpose of Twist was to load up the Fed’s portfolio with duration, forcing the rest of the market to shift its investing curve even further into risky assets, as the Fed will have effectively onboarded the bulk of securities in the 3-4% return interval. Now as we showed back in early April, hopes that the Fed will simply continue with Operation Twist 2 after the end of “season” 1, as suggested by some clueless “access journalists” who merely relay what they are told by higher powers, are completely misguided as the Fed simply does not have enough short-term securities (1-3 years) to sell, and would have at most 2 months of inventory for a continued sterilized operation. Which however, does not mean that the Fed can not be quietly ramping up its operations in the ongoing Twisting episode. Because as Stone McCarthy demonstrates, as of the past week, the Fed has already surpassed its 100 month maturity target of 100 months, and is at 102.82 months as of May 16. And this is with 6 more weeks of Twist to go: at the current rate of SOMA purchases, the Fed will have a total portfolio average maturity of just shy of 110 months by June 30! Which means that contrary to market expectations of what the Fed’s own stated goal may have been, Bernanke will have gobbled up nearly 40% more long-dated Flow relative to estimates! In other words, Ben does not need to do a full blown Operation Twist 2 episode: by the time Twist 1 is over, he will have attained nearly 40% of the goals of the next potential sterilized operation.

Why is this important? Well, recall that over a month ago Goldman Sachs itself admitted what we have been saying for over 3 years: it is not stock that matters… it is flow. Recall the Goldman punchline:

we have found some evidence that at the very long end of the yield curve, where Operation Twist is concentrated, it may be not just the stock of securities held by the Fed but also the ongoing flow of purchases that matters for yields…

And there you have it.

Read moreBy The Time Operation Twist 1 Is Over, The Fed Will Have Quietly Completed 40% Of Operation Twist 2 As Well

Gold Bug Bill Gross Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday For A Hamburger Today, Hoping ‘Tuesday Never Comes’

Gold Bug Bill Gross Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday For A Hamburger Today, Hoping “Tuesday Never Comes” (ZeroHedge, May 1, 2012):

We will forgive Bill Gross for taking the chart that Zero Hedge first presented (oddly enough correctly attributed by his arch rival Jeff Gundlach) as the centerpiece of his just released monthly musings, and wrongfully misattributing it, for the simple reason that everything else in his latest monthly letter “Tuesday Never Comes” is a carbon copy of the topics covered and discussed extensively on these pages both recently and over the past 3 years. However something tells us that the man who manages over $1 trillion in bonds in the form of the world’s largest bond portfolio will be slowly in getting branded a gold bug by the idiot media even with such warnings as “real assets/commodities should occupy an increasing percentage of portfolios.” Neither will his warnings that an inflationary spike courtesy of the tens of trillions in loose money added to the system will be inflationary: “inflation should creep higher. Do not be mellowed by the affirmation of a 2% target rate of inflation here in the U.S. or as targeted in six of the G-7 nations. Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero bound yields that were initiated in late 2008 and which will likely continue for years to come.” Finally, since Zero Hedge is the only venue that has been pounding the table on the whole “flow” vs “stock” debate which is at the heart of it all (see here), we were delighted to see this topic get a much needed mention by the world’s now most influential gold bug: “The Fed appears to have a theory that is somewhat incomprehensible to me, stressing the “stock” of Treasuries as opposed to the “flow.” And there you have it. In summary: to anyone who has read Zero Hedge recently, don’t expect much new ground covered. To anyone else, this is a must read.

From Bill Gross

Tuesday Never Comes
  • The current acceleration of credit via central bank policies will likely produce a positive rate of real economic growth this year for most developed countries, but the structural distortions brought about by zero bound interest rates will limit that growth and induce serious risks in future years.
  • Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero bound yields that will likely continue for years to come.
  • Focus on securities with shorter durations – bonds with maturities in the five-year range and stocks paying dividends that offer 3%–4% yields.  In addition, real assets/commodities should occupy an increasing percentage of portfolios.

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Explains The European Ponzi

Bill Gross Explains The European Ponzi (ZeroHedge, Feb. 8, 2012):

Not like it is news, but… Out of one pocket, into another, and in the mean time “things get better” as Gross explains below. That said, we hope Bill knows where Allianz of A&G fame (which just happens to be the closest comp to our own AIG) falls in the pecking order of the European house of cards.

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Explains Why ‘We Are Witnessing The Death Of Abundance’ And Why Gold Is Becoming The Default ‘Store Of Value’

– ‘King Of BondsBill Gross Explains Why “We Are Witnessing The Death Of Abundance” And Why Gold Is Becoming The Default “Store Of Value” (ZeroHedge, Feb. 1, 2012):

While sounding just a tad preachy in his February newsletter, Bill Gross’ latest summary piece on the economy, on the Fed’s forray into infinite ZIRP, into maturity transformation, and the lack thereof, on the Fed’s massive blunder in treating the liquidity trap, but most importantly on what the transition from a levering to delevering global economy means, is a must read. First: on the fatal flaw in the Fed’s plan: “when rational or irrational fear persuades an investor to be more concerned about the return of her money than on her money then liquidity can be trapped in a mattress, a bank account or a five basis point Treasury bill. But that commonsensical observation is well known to Fed policymakers, economic historians and certainly citizens on Main Street.” And secondly, here is why the party is over: “Where does credit go when it dies? It goes back to where it came from. It delevers, it slows and inhibits economic growth, and it turns economic theory upside down, ultimately challenging the wisdom of policymakers. We’ll all be making this up as we go along for what may seem like an eternity. A 30-50 year virtuous cycle of credit expansion which has produced outsize paranormal returns for financial assets – bonds, stocks, real estate and commodities alike – is now delevering because of excessive “risk” and the “price” of money at the zero-bound. We are witnessing the death of abundance and the borning of austerity, for what may be a long, long time.” Yet most troubling is that even Gross, a long-time member of the status quo, now sees what has been obvious only to fringe blogs for years: Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside. Still, zero-bound money may kill as opposed to create credit. Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.” Let that sink in for a second, and let it further sink in what happens when $1.3 trillion Pimco decides to open a gold fund. Physical preferably…

From PIMCO’s Bill Gross:

Life – and Death Proposition

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Explains The FOMC Decision: ‘QE 2.5 Today, QE 3, 4, 5 … Lie Ahead’ – Market Reaction: Gold And Silver Go Vertical

Bill Gross’ Explains The FOMC Decision: “QE 2.5 Today, QE 3, 4, 5 … Lie Ahead” (ZeroHedge, Jan. 25, 2012):

Pimco just saved you lots of garbage sellside “research” “analysis” on the topic.

 

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Tweets: ‘Today Is A Santa Claus Rally! Prepare 4 Record Cold Winter, Solstice Upon Us’ … ‘US Is Not An Island’

Bill Gross: Enjoy The Santa Rally – The Hangover Is Coming As “US Is Not An Island” (ZeroHedge, Dec. 20, 2011):

Just tweeted from the bond titan who is getting more and more concerned about those asset management fees in a world in which fixed income is increasingly becoming risk free, courtesy of central planning, until Gresham’s law unwind destroys everyone.

Source: Twitter

Bill Gross Has Record $60 Billion Short Cash Bet Fed To Proceed With MBS Monetization

Bill Gross Has Record $60 Billion Short Cash Bet Fed To Proceed With MBS Monetization (ZeroHedge, Dec. 12, 2011):

Following the release of its November fund statistics, Pimco’s Total Return Fund has once again reaffirmed it is betting on imminent QE by the Fed in the form of MBS monetization, a trend it started two months ago as we pointed out. And with a record $60 billion short cash position, or 25% of the entire fund $242 billion AUM, they better be right this time (he did the same thing in Jan-Feb… that did not work out too well). It is amazing to consider that back in April, Gross was long $90 billion in cash: a $150 billion swing! The TRF’s 43% holdings of MBS is an increase of 5% compared to October, the most since December 2010, but still just half of the 86% held in February 2009 in expectation sof MBS monetizations by the Fed as part of QE 1. Just as notable is the near record effective fund duration, which at 7.46 was the second highest ever, just a modest drop from the 7.58 in October. What is most curious is that Gross, for the first time as far as our records go, is completely out of the 0-3 year maturity range. Which makes sense: after all the Fed has telegraphed there will be no money made in that band of rates until mid-2013, a deadline which will likely soon be extended.

Read moreBill Gross Has Record $60 Billion Short Cash Bet Fed To Proceed With MBS Monetization

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Sends Out Big Apology To Investors, And Then Declares That The Economy Is Doomed

- Bill Gross Sends Out Big Apology To Investors, And Then Declares That The Economy Is Doomed (Business Insider, Oct. 15, 2011):

Funny, just yesterday afternoon we pointed out the irony of nobody caring about the fact that Bill Gross had loaded up the boat on the long end of the yield curve, a gamble that obviously meant one thing: He sees no growth or inflation ahead — essentially an economy that’s doomed.

Well….

Now he might get more attention, because he just put that in writing.

Dealbreaker (via ZeroHedge) put up a special letter from Gross to his investors titled, simply Mea Culpa.

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross Sends Out Big Apology To Investors, And Then Declares That The Economy Is Doomed

PIMCO, The World’s Biggest Bond Fund, Expects Greece And Other European Economies To Default – Allianz Global Investors Capital: Greek Default ‘Inevitable’

Greek cabinet approves austerity budget (Telegraph, June 22, 2011):

Pimco, the world’s biggest bond fund, shrugged off last night’s vote of confidence in the Greek government warning that it expects Greece and other European economies to default on their debts to resolve their problems.

“For the next three years, we’re going to see different economies work out different problems. For European economies, especially Greece, it would be through default,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, said in Taipei on Wednesday in a video conference.

“Nothing has been done to enhance growth,” he said. “No single (Greek) indicator has shown strength. They are afraid a restructuring would hurt European banks.”

However, he doubted a Greek default could trigger another global financial crisis: “Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain would have to be involved. But Greece is too small in terms of economic impact.”

Horacio Valeiras, chief investment officer of fund firm Allianz Global Investors Capital (AGIC), predicted that Ireland and Portugal, countries that also received financial bailouts in the wake of the global credit crisis, will have to restructure their debts.

“We are not investing in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal,” he said at the press briefing. He sees default in Greece as “inevitable”.

California-based Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Company), is based in California and is the world’s biggest bond fund manager with nearly $1.3 trillion in assets under management.

How Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis

Don’t blame American appetites, rising oil prices, or genetically modified crops for rising food prices. Wall Street’s at fault for the spiraling cost of food.



Demand and supply certainly matter. But there’s another reason why food across the world has become so expensive: Wall Street greed.

It took the brilliant minds of Goldman Sachs to realize the simple truth that nothing is more valuable than our daily bread. And where there’s value, there’s money to be made. In 1991, Goldman bankers, led by their prescient president Gary Cohn, came up with a new kind of investment product, a derivative that tracked 24 raw materials, from precious metals and energy to coffee, cocoa, cattle, corn, hogs, soy, and wheat. They weighted the investment value of each element, blended and commingled the parts into sums, then reduced what had been a complicated collection of real things into a mathematical formula that could be expressed as a single manifestation, to be known henceforth as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI).

Read moreHow Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure.

This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill – it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry).

In March, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis.

And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world’s largest “bond” fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis.

We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO’s holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below).

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

‘Skunked’: Bill Gross On How ‘The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt’

Captain Obvious strikes again.

More from Bill Gross:

PIMCO Total Return, The World’s Largest Bond Fund, Dumps All US Government Debt Holdings

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: US Treasuries Are Not Safe And ‘Most Overvalued’ Bonds

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: ‘No Way Out’ of Debt Trap, US Living Standards Doomed to Fall

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Asks The $64,000 Question: ‘Who Will Buy Treasuries When The Fed Doesn’t?’ His Answer: ‘I Don’t Know’; Gross Is Getting Out Of Risk


In a letter focusing on what has been well known to Zero Hedge readers for about two years now, Bill Gross’ latest investment outlook does the usual attack of Beltway stupidity (as if Congress is in any way competent of making math-related decisions – they do what Wall Street – that’s you Bill! – tell them to do, and you know it), emphasizing the impossible math of total US entitlement liabilities (on a net present value basis), which Gross estimates at $75 trillion. That Gross conclusion is predetermined from the onset is not surprising: “Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.”

Then again, that America is bankrupt is not really news to anyone. Neither is it news, that Gross, as we first reported, no longer has any US bonds to dispose of. What will be news is the inflection point at which Gross starts purchasing Treasuries once again. And after all with $220 billion in AUM in the Total Return Fund, what else will he do: hold on to cash? Buy Netflix? Then the only question will be how Gross spins the inevitable capitulation of the re-hypocrisy trade, validating that he, in a narrow sense, and PIMCO in a broad one, is perhaps the biggest cog in the very system that Bill spends so many hours writing letters about and complaining against. But yes, even that won’t be all that surprising to us. After all, in this bizarro world absolutely everything is now priced in.

From PIMCO

Skunked

  • Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security now account for 44% of total federal spending and are steadily rising.
  • Previous Congresses (and Administrations) have relied on the assumption that we can grow our way out of this onerous debt burden.
  • Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, the U.S. will likely default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but via inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.

Read more‘Skunked’: Bill Gross On How ‘The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt’

PIMCO Total Return, The World’s Largest Bond Fund, Dumps All US Government Debt Holdings

The greatest financial (and economic) collapse in world history is well on its way.

The bankster bailouts, stimulus package and unprecedented deficit spending have caused the ultimate bubble and it is ready to burst.

This is the Greatest Depression.

See also:

Muni Bond Market ‘To Go Down By At Least 15 To 20%, ‘By The Time All Muni Shoes Drop It Will Look Like Imelda Marcos’ Closet’

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: US Treasuries Are Not Safe And ‘Most Overvalued’ Bonds

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: ‘No Way Out’ of Debt Trap, US Living Standards Doomed to Fall

TrimTabs Finds Social Benefits Are Equal To 35 Percent Of All US Wages And Salaries

Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management: ‘A Hyperinflationary Deluge Is Imminent’, And Why, Therefore, Bernanke’s Motto Is ‘Après Nous Le Déluge’

With $5 Trillion In US And European Funding Needs Over The Next 3 Years, How Long Until The Global Monetization Tsunami Hits (Again)?

Bill Gross’ decisions look certainly like common sense, BUT his ‘perfect timing history’ is pretty odd and he must be trading on insider information.


(Reuters) – The world’s largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.

The move by Bill Gross’s $236.9 billion PIMCO Total Return fund completed last month comes in the wake of a vicious Treasury market sell-off and just days after he questioned who will buy Treasuries once the Federal Reserve halts its latest round of bond purchases in June.

Gross, who also helps oversee a $1.1 trillion investment portfolio as PIMCO’s co-chief investment officer, has repeatedly warned against U.S. deficit spending and its inflationary impact, which undermine the value of government debt and push up yields as investors demand more compensation for risk.

Over the last five months, worries over the ballooning U.S. budget gap estimated at $1.645 trillion for 2011, political stalemate in Washington over how to narrow it and inflationary fears have all contributed to a steep sell-off in Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year note has seen its yield, which moves inversely to price, rise more than one percentage point since early October to 3.46 percent by Wednesday’s close.

Gross expects further carnage. Just last week, he told Reuters Insider that a 4.0 percent yield for 10-year notes is a “rational expectation” if the Fed “disappears as the buyer of last resort.”

Read morePIMCO Total Return, The World’s Largest Bond Fund, Dumps All US Government Debt Holdings

Muni Bond Market ‘To Go Down By At Least 15 To 20%, ‘By The Time All Muni Shoes Drop It Will Look Like Imelda Marcos’ Closet’

DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach appeared on CNBC earlier, and among other things, the muni market was discussed. It appears that the fund manager whom many consider to be roughly in the same ballpark as Howard Marks when it comes to fixed income investing is very much in Meredith Whitney’s camp when it comes to his outlook on muni market prospects.

Asked by Faber if he believes that munis are ultimately going the way subprime securities did, Gundlach responds “If by that you mean lower, the answer is yes. If you mean crashing, I am agnostic on that.” And for all those who love taking out their actuarial tables and their historical default data to refute what is simply common sense, Gundlach has a few words as well: “I don’t think you need to know what the default rates are going to be, or need to know how low low is, munis are going to go down.

There are going to be other shoes to drop. There might be so many it looks like Imelda Marcos’ closet when all the shoes drop because all the states have to deal with this stuff.… Between here and the endgame lies the valley and the valley is full of fear. And I think the muni market is going to go down by at least 15 to 20%. At least.”

As for Kaminsky relentless advocacy of munis, this time coming out with the always disingenuous “hold to maturity” defense, Gundlach simply made a mockery of that whole spiel: “You know what the definition of an investor? It is a trader who is underwater. People say they hold to maturity until they get scared and sell. It gets scary when the prices start to drop. The fear factor here is going to be palpable.”

Read moreMuni Bond Market ‘To Go Down By At Least 15 To 20%, ‘By The Time All Muni Shoes Drop It Will Look Like Imelda Marcos’ Closet’

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: US Treasuries Are Not Safe And ‘Most Overvalued’ Bonds

Treasuries “Most Overvalued” Bonds, Bill Gross Says: Beware End of QE2

This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there’s little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn’t abate until late 2010.

But with yields rising and concerns mounting about budget deficits at all levels of government, the question begs: Are bonds still safe?

If by “bonds” you mean U.S. Treasuries, the answer is a resounding “no”, according to Bill Gross, founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, which has about $1.2 trillion of assets under management.

“The Treasury market typifies perhaps the most overvalued area of the bond market,” Gross says.

In the accompanying video, Gross discusses the theme of his most recent monthly strategy piece: “Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?”

Specifically, Gross worries about the end of the Fed’s QE2 program, slated for June 30. “If someone has been buying $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries and now doesn’t buy $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, it’ll affect yields on the upside.”

‘D-Day’ for Debt

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross: US Treasuries Are Not Safe And ‘Most Overvalued’ Bonds

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: ‘No Way Out’ of Debt Trap, US Living Standards Doomed to Fall

Debt, debt and more mounting debt is plaguing countries around the globe.

In the U.S., states across the country face a collective $125 billion shortfall for fiscal 2012, while Congress is facing a budget gap nearly 10 times that size.

PIMCO founder Bill Gross — one of the world’s largest mutual funds managers, who focuses mostly on bonds — has previously said that if the United States were a corporation, no one in their right mind would lend us money. For the last decade, we’ve been “relying on the kindness of strangers” to help cover our debts, he tells Aaron Task in the accompanying clip.

By “strangers” he is referring to our foreign counterparts, like China for example. Basically, for years Americans have spent their hard-earned dollars on less-expensive Chinese made goods. With great gratitude, China turned around and used all those dollars to buy up U.S. Treasuries and other dollar-denominated assets.

But now after years of reckless spending, America’s debt level is nearing a breaking point and can no longer rely on foreign capital as a last resort.  “When a country reaches a certain debt level, confidence in that country’s ability to repay that debt becomes jeopardized,” says Gross, citing the work of Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart in This Time Is Different.

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross: ‘No Way Out’ of Debt Trap, US Living Standards Doomed to Fall

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Asks The $64,000 Question: ‘Who Will Buy Treasuries When The Fed Doesn’t?’ His Answer: ‘I Don’t Know’; Gross Is Getting Out Of Risk

After serving as the inspiration for the Chairsatan’s latest appellation with his February missive, Bill Gross now goes for the jugular with the $64,000 question: with “nearly 70% of the annualized issuance since the beginning of QE II has been purchased by the Fed, with the balance absorbed by those old standbys – the Chinese, Japanese and other reserve surplus sovereigns.

Basically, the recent game plan is as simple as the Ohio State Buckeyes’ “three yards and a cloud of dust” in the 1960s. When applied to the Treasury market it translates to this: The Treasury issues bonds and the Fed buys them. What could be simpler, and who’s to worry? This Sammy Scheme as I’ve described it in recent Outlooks is as foolproof as Ponzi and Madoff until… until… well, until it isn’t. Because like at the end of a typical chain letter, the legitimate corollary question is – Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?” Bingo, we have a winner.

This is precisely the issue that Zero Hedge has been exposing over the past 6 months, and is the reason why the Fed is now locked in a QEasing corner from which there is no exit. To his credit, Gross attempts to provide an answer: “Someone will buy them, and we at PIMCO may even be among them.

The question really is at what yield and what are the price repercussions if the adjustments are significant… What I would point out is that Treasury yields are perhaps 150 basis points or 1½% too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5%.”

And the stunner: “Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market handoff and stability in currency and financial markets. 15% gratuities may lie ahead, but more than likely there is a negative two-bit or even eight-bit tip lying on the investment table. Like I did 45 years ago, PIMCO’s not sticking around to see the waitress’s reaction.” Translation: Pimco just issued a “sell” rating on everything.

Full article here: ZeroHedge

PIMCO’s Bill Gross: UK a ‘must to avoid’ as its debt lies ‘on bed of nitroglycerine’

Highly recommended:

PIMCO’S Bill Gross: ‘Let’s Get Fisical’ (… or why the US will not make it.)

Related articles:

Britain Faces New Souvereign Debt Crisis As PIMCO Pulls Out

Bank of England’s ‘nerves’ to be tested as inflation jumps most on record in December


Bill Gross deals blow to government with warning to his investors that Britain’s debt makes it a ‘must to avoid’

bill-gross-1

The government’s hopes of claiming credit for reviving the British economy suffered a severe blow today when the world’s biggest buyers of bonds warned that the UK was a “must to avoid” for his investors as its debt was “resting on a bed of nitroglycerine”.

The intervention by Bill Gross, co-founder of California-based fund managers Pimco, came on the day official figures confirmed that Britain had emerged from the deepest recession since the 1930s – but only by the narrowest of margins.

The economy grew by 0.1% in the final three months of last year, much weaker than even the most cautious expectations in Westminster and the City. The unexpectedly sluggish performance prompted Alastair Darling to warn that Britain could yet fall back into recession, telling the Guardian “there will be hiccups along the way”.

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross: UK a ‘must to avoid’ as its debt lies ‘on bed of nitroglycerine’

PIMCO’S Bill Gross: ‘Let’s Get Fisical’ (… or why the US will not make it.)

On Thursday I had posted Bloomberg’s summary on the monthly investment outlook by PIMCO’s Bill Gross:

PIMCO’s Bill Gross warns on risks of US deficit: ‘Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people.’

But that summary missed a lot of important points.

Here is just one excerpt as a starter:

“Here’s the problem that the U.S. Fed’s “exit” poses in simple English: Our fiscal 2009 deficit totaled nearly 12% of GDP and required over $1.5 trillion of new debt to finance it. The Chinese bought a little ($100 billion) of that, other sovereign wealth funds bought some more, but as shown in Chart 2, foreign investors as a group bought only 20% of the total – perhaps $300 billion or so. The balance over the past 12 months was substantially purchased by the Federal Reserve. …”

If that doesn’t bother you, then I do not know what will. The Federal Reserve is creating money out of thin air like there is no tomorrow and the bad news is that that is exactly what the elite that controls the US government and the Federal Reserve has planned for America:

In the next two years (or just a little more than that) we will see hyperinflation in the US, people in America will become desperately poor and the Greatest Depression will turn the US into a Third World country.

(In 2009 Bill Gross was named the world’s 32nd most powerful man by Forbes.)

Now here is the full article by Bill Gross, ‘The King of Bonds’ (Must-Read!):


Let’s Get Fisical

bill-gross-1

Quixotic journeys often make for great literature, but by definition are rarely productive. I am, after all, referring to windmills here – not their 21st century creation, but their 17th century chasing. Futility, not productivity, was the ultimate fate of Cervantes’ man from La Mancha. So it is with hesitation, although quixotic obsession, that I plunge headlong into a discussion of American politics, healthcare legislation, resultant budget deficits and – finally – their potential effect on financial markets. There will be windmills aplenty in the next few pages and not much good can come of these opinions or my tilting in their direction. Still, I mount my steed, lance in hand, and ride forward.

Question: What has become of the American nation? Conceived with the vision of liberty and justice for all, we have descended in the clutches of corporate and other special interests to a second world state defined by K Street instead of Independence Square. Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people. Washington consistently stoops to legislate 10,000-page perversions of healthcare, regulatory reform, defense, and budgetary mandates overflowing with earmarks that serve a monied minority as opposed to an all-too-silent majority. You don’t have to be Don Quixote to believe that legislators – and Presidents – often do not work for the benefit of their constituents: A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that over 65% of Americans trust their government to do the right thing “only some of the time” and a stunning 19% said “never.” What most politicians apparently are working for is to perpetuate their power – first via district gerrymandering, and then second by around-the-clock campaigning financed by special interest groups. If, by chance, they’re ever voted out of office, they have a home just down the street – at K Street – with six-figure incomes as a starting wage.

What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply. Public records show that combined labor, insurance, big pharma and related corporate interests spent just under $500 million last year on healthcare lobbying (not much of which went to politicians) for what is likely to be a $50-100 billion annual return. The fact is that American citizens have never been as divorced from their representatives – and if that description fits the Democratic Congress now in control – then it applies to Republicans as well – past and present. So you watch Fox, or is it MSNBC? O’Reilly or Olbermann? It doesn’t matter. You’re just being conned into rooting for a team that basically runs the same plays called by lookalike coaches on different sidelines. A “ballot box” pox on all their houses – Senators, Representatives and Presidents alike. There has been no change, there will be no change, until we the American people decide to publicly finance all national and local elections and ban the writing of even a $1 check for our favorite candidates. Undemocratic? Hardly. Get on the internet, use Facebook, YouTube, or Twitter to campaign for your choice. That’s the new democracy. When special interests, even singular citizens write a check, it represents a perversion of democracy not the exercise of the First Amendment. Any chance that any of this will happen? Not one ghost of a chance. Forward Don Quixote, the windmills are in sight.

Distressed as I am about the state of American democracy, a rational money manager cannot afford to get mad or “just get even” when it comes to investing clients’ money. Still, like pilots politely advertise at the end of most flights, “We know you have a choice of airlines and we thank you for flying ‘United’.” Global investment managers likewise have a choice of sovereign credits and risk assets where stable inflation and fiscal conservatism are available. If 2008 was the year of financial crisis and 2009 the year of healing via monetary and fiscal stimulus packages, then 2010 appears likely to be the year of “exit strategies,” during which investors should consider economic fundamentals and asset markets that will soon be priced in a world less dominated by the government sector. If, in 2009, PIMCO recommended shaking hands with the government, we now ponder “which” government, and caution that the days of carefree check writing leading to debt issuance without limit or interest rate consequences may be numbered for all countries.

Read morePIMCO’S Bill Gross: ‘Let’s Get Fisical’ (… or why the US will not make it.)

PIMCO’s Bill Gross warns on risks of US deficit: ‘Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people.’

Wake up America!

Peter Schiff on Fast Money: ‘America is broke’; ‘The Fed created a currency crisis’; ‘Dollar to collapse 50-70% or more’

US: Public Pensions Face $2 Trillion Deficit

U.S. Avoids Technical Default By Three Days



Gross warns on risks of US deficit

bill-gross
Bill Gross

Jan. 7 (Financial Times) – Bill Gross, the influential bond fund manager who is one of the world’s biggest investors in sovereign debt, said it was unlikely that the US economy was strong enough for the government to “gracefully exit” stimulus spending programmes or that private investors would be capable of absorbing the balance in deficit funding.

In a monthly investment outlook Mr Gross, managing director and a founder of Pimco, which has $940bn under management, commented on US healthcare legislation, the resulting budget deficits and the potential impact on financial markets.

The four-page commentary, entitled “Let’s Get Fisical”, included a scathing attack on the workings of the US political system. He urged the American people to use social networking sites like Twitter to have their voices heard over individual political donors.

“Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people,” said Mr Gross. “When special interests, even singular citizens, write a cheque, it represents a perversion of democracy, not the exercise of the First Amendment.”

In highlighting that just $500m spent in healthcare lobbying by labour, insurance, “big pharma” and related corporate interests would generate a $50bn-$100bn annual return, he said, “What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply.”

Mr Gross said that while he was “distressed” at the state of US democracy, a rational money manager could not afford to “get mad” when it comes to investing clients’ money. Global investment managers have a choice of sovereign credits where “stable inflation and fiscal conservation are available”, he said.

Read morePIMCO’s Bill Gross warns on risks of US deficit: ‘Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people.’

Britain Faces New Souvereign Debt Crisis As PIMCO Pulls Out

See also:

Pimco move to sell gilts raises spectre of a UK sovereign debt crisis (Telegraph)

Gordon Brown accused of “fantasy” over public debt as changes tack (Times)


britain-faces-new-souvereign-debt-crisis
Pimco’s decision to sell UK gilts this year will be seen as a financial vote of no-confidence in the Government’s handling of the economy.

FEARS that Gordon Brown has left Britain on the brink of ­bankruptcy intensified last night as investors withdrew from backing the Treasury’s soaring debt.

US-based investment group Pimco, one of the world’s leading bond houses, said it will sell its UK government gilts this year.

It will be a hammer blow to the Treasury’s attempt to raise up to £200billion of government borrowing amid the deficit crisis.

The embarrassment is all the more acute because the younger brother of Cabinet minister Ed Balls is overseeing the gilt sale.

andrew-balls
Labour’s Ed Balls’ younger brother Andrew is overseeing the Pimco pullout

As head of Pimco’s European investment team, Andrew Balls is spearheading the exit from investment in the Government.

The Tories seized on the announcement as evidence that Mr Brown’s soaring borrowing is threatening the UK with the worst debt crisis since the 1970s.

Shadow Chief Secretary Philip Hammond said: “This announcement by the world’s biggest bond house is a damning verdict on Gordon Brown’s handling of the economy and raises yet more questions about where the ­Government is going to borrow the £178billion it needs over the next 12 months.

“To restore confidence to the bond markets, keep mortgages down and get the economy growing, Britain needs a credible plan to get the deficit down.

“Instead we have a Prime ­Minister and Chancellor at loggerheads over tax and spending. We can’t go on like this.” Concern has been growing in the City and on international money markets at the unprecedented scale of the British ­government’s debt crisis. The Treasury is on course to ­borrow £178billion this year and the national debt is tipped to reach a colossal £1.5trillion for the first time in our history.

Read moreBritain Faces New Souvereign Debt Crisis As PIMCO Pulls Out

Pimco: Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes

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File photo of U.S. one dollar bills. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg New

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) — Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said the dollar will weaken as the U.S. pumps “massive” amounts of money into the economy.

The dollar will drop the most against emerging-market counterparts, Curtis A. Mewbourne, a Pimco portfolio manager, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site. The greenback is losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, he said.

“Investors should consider whether it makes sense to take advantage of any periods of U.S. dollar strength to diversify their currency exposure,” Mewbourne wrote in his August Emerging Markets Watch report. “The massive amounts of U.S. dollar liquidity produced in response to the crisis” have helped reduce demand for the currency, he wrote.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, touched 78.823 today, the lowest this week. It has fallen 12 percent from this year’s high in March as U.S. authorities pledged $12.8 trillion to combat the recession. China, the world’s largest holder of foreign-currency reserves, and Russia have both called for a new global currency to replace the dollar as the dominant place to store reserves.

“While we have not yet reached the point where a new global reserve currency will arise, we are clearly seeing a loss of status for the U.S. dollar as a store of value even in the absence of a single viable alternative,” Mewbourne wrote.

Read morePimco: Dollar to Weaken as Reserve Status Erodes

US Will Eventually Lose Its AAA Credit Rating: Bill Gross

Geithner Pledges to Cut Deficit Amid Rating Concern

May 21 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Obama administration is committed to reducing the federal budget deficit after concerns rose that the U.S. debt rating may eventually be threatened with a downgrade.

“It’s very important that this Congress and this president put in place policies that will bring those deficits down to a sustainable level over the medium term,” Geithner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. He added that the target is reducing the gap to 3 percent of gross domestic product or smaller, from a projected 12.9 percent this year.

The dollar, Treasuries and American stocks slumped today on concern about the U.S. government’s debt rating. Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. “eventually” will lose its AAA grade.

Geithner, 47, also said that the rise in yields on Treasury securities this year “is a sign that things are improving” and that “there is a little less acute concern about the depth of the recession.”

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped 17 basis points to 3.37 percent at 4:53 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 1.7 percent to 888.33, and the dollar tumbled 0.8 percent to $1.3890 per euro.

Gross’s Warning

Gross said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television that while a U.S. sovereign rating cut is “certainly nothing that’s going to happen overnight,” financial markets are “beginning to anticipate the possibility.”

Britain saw its own AAA rating endangered earlier today when Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the nation’s grade to “negative” from “stable,” citing a debt level approaching 100 percent of U.K. GDP.

It’s “critically important” to bring down the American deficit, Geithner said.

Read moreUS Will Eventually Lose Its AAA Credit Rating: Bill Gross

Fed Calls Consultants to Treat AIG, Stricken Markets

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — Every Sunday night, New York bankruptcy lawyer Marshall Huebner spends a 13-hour shift on call as an emergency medical technician. His day job involves work on another sort of rescue: The government’s $152.5 billion bailout of American International Group Inc.

“There’s a stronger parallel than you would think,” Huebner, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell, said in an interview. Helping resuscitate the insurance giant takes “a lot of the same qualities that I think stand you in very good stead with emergency medicine — the ability to remain calm in almost any situation, and the ability to assess, triage and treat, even in a crisis.”

Huebner, 41, is part of an army of outside lawyers and consultants the Federal Reserve has called upon to help fight the biggest financial crisis in 70 years. While the central bank won’t disclose how much work it has outsourced, Fed watchers say the institution is relying on Wall Street experts to an unprecedented extent, seeking help from insiders in the very industries where the turmoil originated.

“I don’t think the Fed has seen anything like this,” former New York Fed general counsel and AIG executive Ernest Patrikis said in an interview. “AIG just got so complex in terms of private corporate matters that you just need that outside expertise.” Patrikis is now with the law firm of White & Case in New York.

In addition to hiring consultants, the Fed and the Treasury have retained Wall Street firms to help manage more than $2 trillion in bailout and emergency-loan programs.

Pimco, JPMorgan

Pacific Investment Management Co. runs a $259 billion program to backstop the commercial-paper market. BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Pimco and Wellington Management Co. are managing the Fed’s purchases of up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities. JPMorgan Chase & Co. oversees a separate program under which the Fed may lend up to $540 billion to support money market mutual funds.

Morgan Stanley is also advising the Fed on the AIG rescue.

Read moreFed Calls Consultants to Treat AIG, Stricken Markets

Beware the next bubble – bonds

“Even if somebody wants to say we’re going to have low inflation for the next year or two, can anybody really say that [with] this most inflationary monetary policy in the history of this country, that people are going to be able to buy a bond for 30 years and clip a 3-per-cent coupon [and come out ahead]?” Mr. Schiff asks. “Does anybody believe that?”

“I think what we should know by now is that we can’t put any faith in what happens in the short run. Internet stocks went way up. Does that validate anything? No. They collapsed to zero,” says Mr. Schiff. When it comes to U.S. Treasuries, “nobody is intending to hold to maturity. Everybody thinks they’re going to get out the door in time.” That’s the greater fool theory at work, and it’s the very definition of a bubble. Beware, all those who would seek shelter in supposedly ultra-safe bonds.


In the beginning, there was a Nasdaq bubble. When the air went rushing out of it, a housing bubble formed, a symptom of a much larger bubble in credit, which in turn helped inflate (arguably) new bubbles in the emerging markets, in oil, and in other commodities.

Pop, pop, pop, pop. Can there possibly be any bubbles left after Meltdown 2008? Only one, maybe: Government debt. In 2009, it could be swept away, too.

“The bond market’s going to collapse,” warns Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a brokerage firm based in Connecticut. He’s one of a small number of financial pros who called the plunge in U.S. real estate prices before it happened; now he’s forecasting the same for U.S. Treasuries. “It’s the biggest bubble yet to burst. It is a complete fantasy.”

That’s the sort of cheery New Year’s forecast you might expect from a man nicknamed Dr. Doom. But Mr. Schiff has important company in the bearish camp. Pimco, the Newport Beach, Calif., giant that manages some $800-billion (U.S.) in bonds, has also grown negative on U.S. government debt, especially long-term debt. With 30-year Treasuries yielding barely 3 per cent, the rewards hardly seem worth the risk, Pimco’s managers are saying – unless you believe U.S. inflation will be close to nil over the next three decades. Not too likely.

Read moreBeware the next bubble – bonds