Moody’s Changes Aaa-Rated Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Outlook To Negative

Moody’s Changes Aaa-Rated Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Outlook To Negative (ZeroHedge, July 23, 2012):

In a first for Moody’s, the rating agency, traditionally about a month after Egan Jones (whose rationale and burdensharing text was virtually copied by Moody’s: here and here), has decided to cut Europe’s untouchable core, while still at Aaa, to Outlook negative, in the process implicitly downgrading Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg, and putting them in line with Austria and France which have been on a negative outlook since February 13, 2012.The only good news goes to Finland, whose outlook is kept at stable for one simple reason: the country’s attempts to collateralize its European bailout exposure, a move which will now be copied by all the suddenly more precarious core European countries.

From the report:

Moody’s changes  the outlook to negative on Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg and affirms Finland’s Aaa stable rating

London, 23 July 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has today revised to negative from stable the outlooks on the Aaa sovereign ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. In addition, Moody’s has also affirmed Finland’s Aaa rating and stable outlook.

All four sovereigns are adversely affected by the following two euro-area-wide developments:

1.) The rising uncertainty regarding the outcome of the euro area debt crisis given the current policy framework, and the increased susceptibility to event risk stemming from the increased likelihood of Greece’s exit from the euro area, including the broader impact that such an event would have on euro area members, particularly Spain and Italy.

2.) Even if such an event is avoided, there is an increasing likelihood that greater collective support for other euro area sovereigns, most notably Spain and Italy, will be required. Given the greater ability to absorb the costs associated with this support, this burden will likely fall most heavily on more highly rated member states if the euro area is to be preserved in its current form.

Read moreMoody’s Changes Aaa-Rated Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Outlook To Negative

Moody’s Downgrades Italy’s To Baa2 From A3, Negative Outlook (Full Text)

Moody’s Downgrades Italy’s To Baa2 From A3, Negative Outlook – Full Text (ZeroHedge, July 12, 2012):

Just like Spain before everyone took the country to a Sub-A rating, Fitch is once again the decider. S&P has Italy at BBB+, and Now Moody’s just took italy under A to Baa2; only Fitch is still at A-, outlook negative. When all three rating agencies go sub A, there is a 5% ECB repo hike as we explained back in April.

From Moody’s

Frankfurt am Main, July 13, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Italy’s government bond rating to Baa2 from A3. The outlook remains negative. Italy’s Prime-2 short-term rating has not changed.

The decision to downgrade Italy’s rating reflects the following key factors:

Read moreMoody’s Downgrades Italy’s To Baa2 From A3, Negative Outlook (Full Text)

Moody’s Downgrades Credit Ratings Of 28 Spanish Banks By 1-4 Notches

Moody’s cuts ratings of 28 Spanish banks (RT, June 25, 2012):

Ratings agency Moody’s has cut the ratings of 28 Spanish banks following a June 13 downgrade of Spain’s sovereign rating by three notches.

The banks’ long-term debt and deposit ratings have been downgraded by one to four notches. The rating of Bankia, one the country’s largest banks, has been cut to junk status.

Moody’s Downgrades Spanish Banking Sector By 1-4 Notches (ZeroHedge, June 25, 2012):

The long anticipated downgrade of the recently bailed out Spanish banking sector has arrived. Moody’s just brought the hammer down on 28 Spanish banks. Also apparently in Spain banks are now more stable than the country: “The ratings of both Banco Santander and Santander Consumer Finance are one notch higher than the sovereign’s rating, due to the high degree of geographical diversification of their balance sheet and income sources, and a manageable level of direct exposure to Spanish sovereign debt relative to their Tier 1 capital, including under stress scenarios. All the rest of the affected banks’ standalone ratings are now at or below Spain’s Baa3 rating.” Can Spain borrow from Santander then? They don’t need the ECB.

Full Spanish Bank downgrade Matrix (pdf source):

Read moreMoody’s Downgrades Credit Ratings Of 28 Spanish Banks By 1-4 Notches

Moody’s To Junk The Entire Spanish Banking System In Hours

Moody’s To Junk Spanish Banking System In Hours (ZeroHedge, June 25, 2012):

Nearly two weeks ago we penned “These Three Spanish Banks Will Be Downgraded Tomorrow” which showed which banks had a rating higher than the sovereign following Moody’s long overdue Spanish downgrade, and thus were about to be downgraded by many notches. Today, after a ridiculously long delay whose only purpose was to buy time, Moody’s is about to junk virtually the entire Spanish banking sector, as was widely expected.The downgrade is expected to happen within hours.

From Expansion (google translated)

After cutting the rating of Baa3 and Spain to threaten to put Spanish debt at the level of junk bond no later than 30 days, has reviewed the notes of all banks. “We have reported a reduction of two or three notches (steps) to almost everyone. Do not look at individual financial statements of each entity. Do not discriminate, “added the sources.

Read moreMoody’s To Junk The Entire Spanish Banking System In Hours

Here We Go: Moody’s Downgrade Is Out – Morgan Stanley Cut Only 2 Notches, To Face $6.8 Billion In Collateral Calls

Here We Go: Moody’s Downgrade Is Out – Morgan Stanley Cut Only 2 Notches, To Face $6.8 Billion In Collateral Calls (ZeroHedge, June 21, 2012):

Here it comes:

  • MOODY’S CUTS 4 FIRMS BY 1 NOTCH
  • MOODY’S CUTS 10 FIRMS’ RATINGS BY 2 NOTCHES
  • MOODY’S CUTS 1 FIRM BY 3 NOTCHES
  • MORGAN STANLEY L-T SR DEBT CUT TO Baa1 FROM A2 BY MOODY’S
  • MOODY’S CUTS MORGAN STANLEY 2 LEVELS, HAD SEEN UP TO 3
  • MORGAN STANLEY OUTLOOK NEGATIVE BY MOODY’S
  • MORGAN STANLEY S-T RATING CUT TO P-2 FROM P-1 BY MOODY’S

But the kicker:

ONLY MORGAN STANLEY, HSBC CUT LESS THAN MOODY’S ORGINAL MAXIMUM.

And there you have it – the reason for the delay were last minute negotiations, most certainly involving extensive monetary explanations, by Morgan Stanley’s Gorman (potentially with Moody’s investor Warren Buffett on the call) to get only a two notch downgrade. And Wall Street wins again.

Recall, from MS’ 10-Q:

“In connection with certain OTC trading agreements and certain other agreements associated with the Institutional Securities business segment, the Company may be required to provide additional collateral or immediately settle any outstanding liability balances with certain counterparties in the event of a credit rating downgrade. At March 31, 2012, the following are the amounts of additional collateral, termination payments or other contractual amounts (whether in a net asset or liability position) that could be called by counterparties under the terms of such agreements in the event of a downgrade of the Company’s long-term credit rating under various scenarios: $868 million (A3 Moody’s/A- S&P); $5,177 million (Baa1 Moody’s/ BBB+ S&P); and $7,206 million (Baa2 Moody’s/BBB S&P). Also, the Company is required to pledge additional collateral to certain exchanges and clearing organizations in the event of a credit rating downgrade. At March 31, 2012, the increased collateral requirement at certain exchanges and clearing organizations under various scenarios was $160 million (A3 Moody’s/A- S&P); $1,600 million (Baa1 Moody’s/ BBB+ S&P); and $2,400 million (Baa2 Moody’s/BBB S&P).”

So instead of $9.6 billion, MS will face only $6.8 billion in collateral calls.


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Still the firm is not out of the woods:

Read moreHere We Go: Moody’s Downgrade Is Out – Morgan Stanley Cut Only 2 Notches, To Face $6.8 Billion In Collateral Calls

Big Bank Downgrade By Moody’s Imminent

Big Bank Downgrade By Moody’s Imminent (ZeroHedge, June 21, 2012):

Even as Moody is now about a week late on its Spanish bank downgrade where the banks are rated higher than the sovereign (which obviously is kept in check to prevent yields on bonds from soaring even more), here comes the next wholesale bank downgrade:

  • Moody’s expected to announce ratings downgrade for UK banks this evening – Sky Sources
  • Exclusive: Big news – I’m told Moody’s will announce downgrades of some of world’s biggest banks, incl in UK, after US mkts close tonight. – Sky’s Mark Kleinman

Looks like that fabricated 2 notch Margin Stanley downgrade (because 3 notches just won’t do – those 4 months of Gorman-led “negotiations” made that painfully clear) is about to strike. The real question is: What Would Egan Who Do?

From Sky:

Some of Britain’s biggest banks are poised to have their credit ratings downgraded by Moody’s as soon as tonight as part of a wider reassessment of the health of the global banking industry, I can reveal.

Moody’s is expected to outline its verdicts about the creditworthiness of banks including Barclays, HSBC, JP Morgan and Royal Bank of Scotland.

Read moreBig Bank Downgrade By Moody’s Imminent

Spain Loses Final A Rating With Moodys Downgrade To Baa3, May Downgrade Further (Full Text)

Don’t miss:

Nigel Farage: ‘Once Greece Leaves The ECB Is Bust’ – ‘The Euro Titanic Has Now Hit The Iceberg And Sadly There Simply Aren’t Enough Lifeboats’ (Video):


Spain Loses Final A Rating With Moodys Downgrade To Baa3, May Downgrade Further – Full Text (ZeroHedge, June 13, 2012):

And so the final Spanish A rating tumbles. Why is this kinda, sorta a big deal? Because as we explained in the end of April, “If all agencies downgrade Spain to BBB+ or below, the ECB could increase haircuts by 5% on SPGBs. The key aspect in terms of the Spanish downgrade(s) is the ECB’s LTRO. If all three rating agencies move Spain to BBB+ or below then under the ECB’s current framework it moves into the Step 3 collateral bucket which requires an additional 5% haircut across the maturities. In classifying its risk management buckets, the ECB uses the highest of the ratings to determine an asset’s position (unlike the sovereign benchmark indices which use the lowest rating, in general). Fitch and Moodys currently rate Spain at A and A3 respectively, with both having a negative outlook in place leaving only a small downgrade margin before Spain migrates to the lower ECB bucket.”

And now the collateral squeeze is on, unless of course the ECB changes the reules one more time.

Read moreSpain Loses Final A Rating With Moodys Downgrade To Baa3, May Downgrade Further (Full Text)

Moody’s Warns Of Spanish Downgrade, Threatens AAA-Countries In Case Of Grexit

Friday Dump Complete: Moody’s Warns Of Spanish Downgrade, Threatens AAA-Countries In Case Of Grexit (ZeroHedge, June 8, 2012):

First we got Spain miraculously announcing late at night local time, but certainly after close of market US time, that the bailout so many algorithms had taken for granted in ramping stocks into the close may not be coming, because, picture this, Germany may have conditions when bailing the broke country’s banks out, and Spain is just not cool with that, and now, after the close of FX and futures trading, we get Moody’s giving us the warning the after Egan-Jones, S&P, and Fitch, it is now its turn to cut the Spanish A3 rating.”As Spain moves closer to the need for direct external support from its European partners, the increased risk to the country’s creditors may prompt further rating actions. The official estimates of recapitalising Spain’s banking system have risen significantly and the country’s indirect reliance on European Central Bank (ECB) funding via its banks has been growing. Moody’s is assessing the implications of these increased pressures and will take any rating actions necessary to reflect the risk to Spanish government creditors. Moody’s rating on Spain is currently A3 with a negative outlook.” Moody’s also warns, what everyone has known for about 2 years now, that Italy could be next: “However, Spain’s banking problem is largely specific to the country and is not likely to be a major source of contagion to other euro area countries, except for Italy, which likewise has a growing funding reliance on the ECB through its banks.” Of course none of this is unexpected. What will be, however, to the market, is when all 3 rating agencies have Spain at BBB+ or below, which as ZH first pointed out at the end of April will result in a 5% increase in repo haircuts on Spanish Government Bonds, resulting in yet another epic collateral squeeze for the country which already is forced to pledge Spiderman towels to the central bank.

From Moody’s

Moody’s: Developments in Spain, Greece may prompt euro area sovereign rating downgrades

Read moreMoody’s Warns Of Spanish Downgrade, Threatens AAA-Countries In Case Of Grexit

Moody’s Downgrades Six German Bank Groups, And Their Subsidiaries, By Up To Three Notches

Moody’s Downgrades Six German Bank Groups, And Their Subsidiaries, By Up To Three Notches (ZeroHedge, June 5, 2012):

First Moody’s cut the most prominent Austrian banks, and now it is Germany’s turn, if not that of the most undercapitalized German bank yet: “The ongoing rating review for Deutsche Bank AG and its subsidiaries will be concluded together with the reviews for other global firms with large capital markets operations.

The full downgrade Matrix:

From Moody’s

Moody’s takes multiple actions on German banks’ ratings; most outlooks now stable

Frankfurt am Main, June 06, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service has today taken various rating actions on seven German banks and their subsidiaries, as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group. As a result, the long-term debt and deposit ratings for six groups and one German subsidiary of a foreign group have declined by one notch, while the ratings for one group were confirmed. Moody’s also downgraded the long-term debt and deposit ratings for several subsidiaries of these groups, by up to three notches. At the same time, the short-term ratings for three groups as well as one German subsidiary of a foreign group have been downgraded by one notch, triggered by the long-term rating downgrades.

Read moreMoody’s Downgrades Six German Bank Groups, And Their Subsidiaries, By Up To Three Notches

Moody’s Downgrades Credit Rating Of 9 Danish Banks

Moody’s downgrades nine Danish banks (AFP, May 31, 2012):

MOODY’S has downgraded the credit rating of nine Danish banks, citing the impact of the rolling eurozone crisis on bank loan quality and on their fund-raising ability.

The nine, along with the Finnish subsidiary of one of the banks, saw their ratings cut one to three notches, with one of them, DLR Kredit, pushed three steps down into the junk-bond realm at Ba1.

“Danish financial institutions face sluggish domestic economic growth, weakening real estate prices and higher levels of unemployment, as well as the risk of external shocks from the ongoing euro area debt crisis,” Moody’s said.

“Asset quality is deteriorating, and these pressures are expected to continue.”

Read moreMoody’s Downgrades Credit Rating Of 9 Danish Banks