Troika Says Greek Proposal Not Enough To Meet Targets, Serves As “Basis For Negotiations”

Troika Says Greek Proposal Not Enough To Meet Targets, Serves As “Basis For Negotiations” (ZeroHedge, July 11, 2015):

Tsipras betrayed the public trust last night when we rammed through a draft proposal for a Third Greek bailout, one which would push total Greek Debt/GDP over 200%, which the Greek population overwhelming rejected in a democratic vote last weekend. And now, it is up to Europe to decide if it will trust the Greek government, which clearly has no problem lying to anyone, to implement reforms which Greece has been unable to effect for over 5 years.

 

Peak Central Banker Hypocrisy: ECB Warns On ELA “Moral Hazard”

Draghi Satan

Peak Central Banker Hypocrisy: ECB Warns On ELA “Moral Hazard” (ZeroHedge, July 7, 2015):

On Monday, the ECB ratcheted up the pressure on the Greek banking sector.

The bank holiday is now in its second week and Greeks have been living with capital controls for nine days. The unequivocal results of Sunday’s referendum suggest that the ‘inconvenience’ of the daily limit on ATM withdrawals and the supplier credit crunch that threatens to empty the shelves at Greek stores hasn’t yet been sufficient to force the country into submission.

Read morePeak Central Banker Hypocrisy: ECB Warns On ELA “Moral Hazard”

Ahead Of Dark ATMs, Import Shortages, Tsipras Goes Back To Brussels Begging For Bailout

Ahead Of Dark ATMs, Import Shortages, Tsipras Goes Back To Brussels Begging For Bailout (ZeroHedge, July 7, 2015):

On the heels of Sunday’s referendum wherein Greeks essentially gave the greenlight for an unceremonious EMU exit should Europe decide to spurn the IMF and stick to a “no debt relief” policy for Athens, PM Alexis Tsipras and his newly-appointed finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos are making a final push to break the stalemate with creditors before the ATMs go dark and a supplier credit crunch creates widespread shortages of imported goods.

EU finance ministers will convene in Brussels first, followed by a meeting of European leaders which is scheduled to begin at 6 pm local time. According to Sueddeutsche Zeitung, the Greek delegation will table a proposal that looks quite a bit like what voters explicitly rejected on Sunday. Here’s more (Google translated):

Read moreAhead Of Dark ATMs, Import Shortages, Tsipras Goes Back To Brussels Begging For Bailout

ECB To Keep Greece On Hold Until Wednesday When Balyasny Sees Rioting Begin

Greece Financial Crisis Riotsgreece-athens

ECB To Keep Greece On Hold Until Wednesday When Balyasny Sees Rioting Begin (ZeroHedge, July 6, 2015):

As we have repeated since January, and certainly on numerous occasions over the weekend, at this point the only variable is what the ECB will do: will it give insolvent Greek banks more aid, or will it increase its ELA collateral haircut (or even withdraw it altogether), the ramifications of which action would have a dire impact on contagion within the rest of the periphery but most certainly on both the Greek financial system as well as Greek society which is now facing an indefinitely period of capital controls.

A quick reminder: this is how we laid out the dynamic between Greece and the ECB in on January 31, which 6 months later, has played out precisely as forecast:

Read moreECB To Keep Greece On Hold Until Wednesday When Balyasny Sees Rioting Begin

Greece Set To Restart Negotiations, IMF “Ready To Assist” Greece, Lagarde Says

Flashback:

Max Keiser on Greece: ‘The IMF is a Financial Mafia’ (April 28, 2010):

The only solution for Greece is to arrest the Goldman Sachs bankers immediately and all those involved in the fabrication of Greek economic data in 2000, when you became a member of the eurozone. The next step is to nationalize all banks like Sweden did in 1993. The International Monetary Fund is that last thing you need. You will lose your sovereignty. It exercises terrorism. You will be raped in such a way, that it will be the worst pain you have ever felt.

IMF


 

Greece Set To Restart Negotiations, IMF “Ready To Assist” Greece, Lagarde Says (ZeroHedge, July 6, 2015):

Just hours after receiving a clear mandate from the Greek people to stand firm in the face of calls for more austerity, the Greek government, squeezed by an acute liquidity shortage in the collapsing banking sector, is set to head back to the negotiating table seeking to “restore liquidity” and find a “sustainable” solution to the country’s debt problem. From Bloomberg:

  • LEADERS OF GREEK RULING AND OPPOSITION PARTIES ISSUE JOINT STATEMENT BACKING EFFORTS TO REACH DEAL WITH CREDITORS
  • GREEK POLITICAL PARTIES SEEK AGREEMENT TO COVER FINANCING NEEDS
  • GREEK LEADERS SAYS GOAL IS TO SECURE COUNTRY’S FINANCING
  • GREEK LEADERS: DEAL SHOULD TACKLE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM
  • GREEK LEADERS: RESTORING LIQUIDITY IS TOP PRIORITY

Speaking of finding a “sustainable” solution (i.e. one that includes writedowns), the IMF, whose well-timed report on the necessity of Greek debt haircuts might well have played a vital role in cementing a victory for the “no” vote on Sunday, is now “ready to help” the Greeks. Here’s Christine Lagarde:

Read moreGreece Set To Restart Negotiations, IMF “Ready To Assist” Greece, Lagarde Says

Eurogroup In Shock: Finance Ministers “Would Not Know What To Discuss” After Greferendum Stunner

euro crisis can kicking failed

Eurogroup In Shock: Finance Ministers “Would Not Know What To Discuss” After Greferendum Stunner (ZeroHedge, July 5, 2015):

Just out from Reuters:

  • FINANCE MINISTERS “WOULD NOT KNOW WHAT TO DISCUSS” AFTER EMERGING GREEK ‘NO’ VOTE-EURO ZONE OFFICIAL

More:

Read moreEurogroup In Shock: Finance Ministers “Would Not Know What To Discuss” After Greferendum Stunner

Greek referendum no vote signals huge challenge to eurozone leaders

The Greek Bluff In All Its Glory: Presenting The Grexit “Falling Dominoes”

Greek dominos

The Greek Bluff In All Its Glory: Presenting The Grexit “Falling Dominoes” (ZeroHedge, July 4, 2015):

Earlier today, Yanis Varoufakis reiterated his core thesis driving the entire Greek approach from day 1 of its negotiations with the Eurogroup: “Europe [stands] to lose as much as Athens if the country is forced from the euro after a referendum on Sunday on bailout terms.”

This is merely a recap of what we said 4 years ago when in July of 2011 we explained “How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP“, recall:

Read moreThe Greek Bluff In All Its Glory: Presenting The Grexit “Falling Dominoes”

Varoufakis accuses Greece’s creditors of ‘terrorism’ ahead of crucial referendum

Flashback:

Max Keiser on Greece: ‘The IMF is a Financial Mafia’ (April 28, 2010):

The only solution for Greece is to arrest the Goldman Sachs bankers immediately and all those involved in the fabrication of Greek economic data in 2000, when you became a member of the eurozone. The next step is to nationalize all banks like Sweden did in 1993. The International Monetary Fund is that last thing you need. You will lose your sovereignty. It exercises terrorism. You will be raped in such a way, that it will be the worst pain you have ever felt.


Varoufakis accuses Greece’s creditors of ‘terrorism’ ahead of crucial referendum (RT, July 4, 2015):

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has described the actions of Athens’ creditors as “terrorism,” but said agreement with them was inevitable in an interview published hours before a landmark referendum to accept or reject the bailout terms.

“What they are doing with Greece has a name: terrorism,” Varoufakis told Spain’s El Mundo daily. Why have they forced us to close the banks? To make people frightened. And when it comes to spreading terror, this phenomenon is called terrorism.”

Read moreVaroufakis accuses Greece’s creditors of ‘terrorism’ ahead of crucial referendum

Will Greek Depositors Under €100,000 Be Spared In Case Of A “Bail-In”

Could deposits below €100k be protected as it happened in Cyprus? The answer depends on the total amount of deposits above €100k. If there are enough of these large deposits above €100k, then most likely any required deposit haircut will be inflicted on these depositors only. There are no recent data on how big this universe of large deposits is. The most recent data from the European Commission suggest that at the end of 2012, covered (i.e. those below €100k) represented 75% of eligible Greek deposits. We suspect this number is now significantly higher leaving little room for depositors with less than €100k to be spared.

You’ve been warned, Greece!

Flashback:

Here is what happened to Mexico:

Hedge Fund Manager Kyle Bass Explains The New World Order (Panel Presentation):

On Greece:

For those who think a 50% write-down on debt will fix Greece, you have lost your mind. It is only a full wipe-out of the non-TROIKA-owned debt that is the only mathematical way for Greece to have any chance.

Don’t believe these governments when they tell you everything is going to fine. The day before Mexico devalued by 60% they denied that they would ever devalue. They can and will never tell you the truth. Find your own numbers.

Here is what happened to Belarus:

Belarus Devalues Its Currency By 56% Overnight, Against Every Currency Out There:

Luckily for those who held their “money” in the form of gold and silver, they just got an instantaneous 56% value preservation and a relative boost in their purchasing power with just one central bank announcement.


Will Greek Depositors Under €100,000 Be Spared In Case Of A “Bail-In”  (ZeroHedge, July 4, 2015):

One week ago, we first explained that as the Cyprus bail-in “blueprint” scenario unfolds, the one final, and most important, remaining variable in the ongoing Greek drama, soon to devolve to tragedy, is how big the ECB’s ELA haircuts would be in the case of a No vote, which would be the first catalyst of a depositor haircut.

ELA Haircut vs Deposit Haircut

Then, overnight, in a report since denied by both the Greek finance ministry and by the European Banking Authority Plan, the pro-Europe FT did yet another hit piece on Greece desperate to push those Greek voters on the fence ahead of tomorrow’s referendum to vote “Yes” (just think of the lost advertising revenue if say Deutsche Bank were to go under).

Read moreWill Greek Depositors Under €100,000 Be Spared In Case Of A “Bail-In”

Did The IMF Just Open Pandora’s Box?

… at this very moment, politicians from Spain’s Podemos to Italy Five Star movement are drafting memos demanding that the IMF evaluate their own debt sustainability. Or rather unsustainability.


Did The IMF Just Open Pandora’s Box? (ZeroHedge, July 3, 2015):

By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction (as opposed to haircut on debt held mostly by private entities such as hedge funds which already happened in 2012), then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland.

Read moreDid The IMF Just Open Pandora’s Box?

The Troika Turns Europe Into A Warzone

The Troika Turns Europe Into A Warzone (The Automatic Earth, July 3, 2015):

So now they do it. Now the IMF comes out with a report that says Greece needs hefty debt restructuring.

Mind you, their numbers are still way off the mark, in the end it’s going to be easily double what they claim. Not even a Yanis Varoufakis haircut will do the trick.

But at least they now have preliminary numbers out. The reason why they have is inevitably linked to the press leak I wrote about earlier this week in Troika Documents Say Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief. If that hadn’t come out, I’m betting they would still not have said a thing.

It’s even been clear for many years to the IMF that debt restructuring for Greece is badly needed, but Lagarde and her troops have come to the Athens talks with an agenda, and stonewalled their own researchers.

Read moreThe Troika Turns Europe Into A Warzone

Equities Soar As Tsipras Said Ready To Accept Most Of Expired Bailout Offer, European Response Muted

Equities Soar As Tsipras Said Ready To Accept Most Of Expired Bailout Offer, European Response Muted (ZeroHedge, July 1, 2015):

It’s deja vu all over again.

Just hours after Greece became the first developed country to default to the IMF, as a result being expelled from its existing bailout program, a little before 5am CET news hit that Greek PM Tsipras was willing to concede to virtually all creditor demands, with a few exceptions. As the FT first reported, “Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras will accept most of the bailout creditors’ conditions offered last weekend, but is still insisting on a handful of changes that could thwart a deal according to a letter he sent late on Tuesday night.”

Read moreEquities Soar As Tsipras Said Ready To Accept Most Of Expired Bailout Offer, European Response Muted

For Greeks The Nightmare Is Just Beginning: Here Come The Depositor Haircuts

For Greeks The Nightmare Is Just Beginning: Here Come The Depositor Haircuts (ZeroHedge, June 30, 2015):

With capital controls already imposed on Greece, some have wondered if this is as bad as it gets. Unfortunately, as the Cyprus “template” has already shown us, for Greece the nightmare on Eurozone street is just beginning.

As a reminder, over the past few months there have been recurring rumors that as part of its strong-arming tactics the ECB may eventually move to raise the haircuts the Bank of Greece is required to apply to assets pledged by Greek banks as collateral for ELA. The idea is to ensure the haircuts are representative of both the deteriorating condition of Greece’s banking sector and the decreased likelihood that Athens will reach a deal with its creditors.

Flashback to April when, on the heels of a decree by the Greek government that mandated the sweep of “excess” cash balances from local governments to the Bank of Greece’s coffers, Bloomberg reported that the ECB was considering three options for haircuts on ELA collateral posted by Greek banks. “Haircuts could be returned to the level of late last year, before the ECB eased its Greek collateral requirements; set at 75 percent; or set at 90 percent,” Bloomberg wrote, adding that “the latter two options could be applied if Greece is in an ‘orderly default’ under a formal ECB program or a ‘disorderly default.’” 

Read moreFor Greeks The Nightmare Is Just Beginning: Here Come The Depositor Haircuts

Europe’s Controlled Demolition

europe-the-final-countdown


Europe’s Controlled Demolition (Tha Automatic Earth, June 30, 2015):

I have plenty to say on the topic of this essay. But the most important thing I think is that I know the EU is blowing up itself by trying to exert far too much influence on the very member nations that made its existence possible. Brussels is a blind city. To see it blowing itself to smithereens makes me very happy.

The flipside is that it will take a lot of pain, and probably even the very wars the EU was originally founded to prevent, to figuratively burn it to the ground. But that, if you’ll allow me, is for another day:

Read moreEurope’s Controlled Demolition

Greece Becomes First Developed Country To Default To The IMF

euro-domino

Greece Becomes First Developed Country To Default To The IMF (ZeroHedge, June 30, 2015):

Faced with almost impossible choices…

Greece

And just as promised earlier in the week, Greece has now passed the midnight deadline for repayment of the €1.6 billion bundled loans due to the IMF and in thus in default. 

Yes we are fully aware that using the pejorative term ‘default’ makes us members of the ignorati, but what else do you call it when you fail to pay back a contracted debt in a timely fashion? (and don’t say ‘arrears’) Anything else is semantics.

  • *IMF SAYS GREECE FAILED TO MAKE PAYMENT DUE TUESDAY
  • *IMF TO CONSIDER GREEK REQUEST FOR PAYMENT DELAY IN DUE COURSE
  • *IMF BOARD INFORMED THAT GREECE IS NOW IN ARREARS

“I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice says in e-mailed statement.

This is the first time an advanced economy has defaulted to The IMF and is by far the largest default The IMF has ever faced.

Read moreGreece Becomes First Developed Country To Default To The IMF

Varoufakis Confirms Greece Will Default To IMF Today

Varoufakis Confirms Greece Will Default To IMF Today (ZeroHedge, June 30, 2015):

May as well spoil the ending of what happens at midnight local time today. Nothing (as previously reported). From Reuters:

  • GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAYS GREECE WILL NOT PAY IMF ON TUESDAY.

Visually:

varoufakis finger

AP has the well-known by now details:

Read moreVaroufakis Confirms Greece Will Default To IMF Today

Greece Will Default To IMF Tomorrow, Government Official Says

This-Is-Sparta

Greece Will Default To IMF Tomorrow, Government Official Says (ZeroHedge, June 29, 2015):

Earlier today, as the exchange between Greece and its creditors got increasingly belligerent, Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas told public broadcaster Eesti Rahvusringhaaling in interview that a possible Greek decision to leave euro area wouldn’t soften stance of other EU countries and that Greece’s debt would still remain outstanding and creditors would expect this money back.”

“If Greece leaves, the value of their new national currency would decline very fast, so their solvency would still worsen further. They will either have to cut spending or improve their tax revenues. There are no other options.”

So did this latest antagonism change the Greek mind? According to a flash headline by the WSJ released moments ago, not all. In fact, Greece just made it official that it would default to the IMF in just over 24 hours.

Read moreGreece Will Default To IMF Tomorrow, Government Official Says

IMF Confirms Greek Referendum “Irrelevant” After Program Expires On Tuesday

Lagarde no more

IMF Confirms Greek Referendum “Irrelevant” After Program Expires On Tuesday (ZeroHedge, June 27, 2015):

If there was any confusion if, as we warned first thing today was the biggest problem with the Greek referendum namely that next weekend there will no longer be a proposal to vote on, the IMF’s Christine Lagarde just put it to rest. As she told the BBC moments ago, the Greek government’s planned referendum on the terms of any new bailout plan will be invalid after Tuesday, when the current programme expires. As a result, the Greek people would be voting on proposals that were no longer in place.

Read moreIMF Confirms Greek Referendum “Irrelevant” After Program Expires On Tuesday

The U.S. And EU Will Collapse Regardless Of Economic ‘Contagion’

The U.S. And EU Will Collapse Regardless Of Economic ‘Contagion’ (ZeroHedge, June 24, 2015):

In order to understand what is really going on around the globe in terms of the collapsing economy, we must set aside false mainstream versions of reality. When it comes to the EU and its current fiscal turmoil, it is very important to, in some respects, ignore Greece entirely. That’s right; forget about all the supposed drama surrounding Greek debt obligations. Will they find a way to pay creditors? Will they default? Will they make a deal with Russia and the BRICS? Will there be last-minute concessions to save the system? It doesn’t matter. It’s all a soap opera, an elaborate Kabuki theater run by international financiers and globalists.

It is most important to remember the fundamentals. Greece will default on its debts. Period. There is no way around it. Maybe Greece makes a deal today, maybe it makes a deal tomorrow; but eventually, the country’s ability to stretch out its resources in order to meet its exponential liabilities will end. It is inevitable, and no last-minute “deal” is going to change the math at the core of it all.

Read moreThe U.S. And EU Will Collapse Regardless Of Economic ‘Contagion’

Greek Delegation Leaves EU Commission: No Agreement Today

Greek Delegation Leaves EU Commission: No Agreement Today (ZeroHedge, June 24, 2015):

So much for a Greek deal getting “done” today, as the market had priced in for the nth countless time on Monday. Here is what happened moments ago according to Bloomberg and Reuters:

  • GREEK DELEGATION LEAVES EU COMMISSION
  • SCHAEUBLE SEES INSUFFICIENT PROGRESS FOR GREECE DEAL TODAY
  • SCHAEUBLE SAYS HE DOESN’T HAVE MUCH NEW TO SAY ON GREECE

And so on, until the next round of buying ahead of the next rumor, until the next denial launches stocks even higher, ahead of more hopes of an imminent deal launches even more buying program, until the next round of rumors leds to new all time highs and so on, and so on…

Greece Rejects “Totally Unacceptable” IMF Counterproposal Demanding Pension Cuts: Full Redline Comparison

Greece Rejects “Totally Unacceptable” IMF Counterproposal Demanding Pension Cuts: Full Redline Comparison (ZeroHedge, June 24, 2015):

The renewed optimism that’s surrounded Greek debt negotiations since Monday evening evaporated like deposits on a hot summer day in Athens this morning as the IMF has indicated it will stick to its “red lines” on pension cuts and the VAT, meaning PM Alexis Tsipras will either surrender unconditionally or embrace an EMU exit.

 

Greece Told To Have A Deal Ready Before Monday Meeting; Tsipras Submits Revised Plan With No Pension Cuts

Merkel Tsipras

Greece Told To Have A Deal Ready Before Monday Meeting; Tsipras Submits Revised Plan With No Pension Cuts (ZeroHedge, June 21, 2015):

Update: the farce must go on because according to Bloomberg the “final final” Greek proposal never made it, and was, ahem, lost in tranmission: EU HAS RECEIVED NO NEW PROPOSAL FROM GREECE YET: EU DIPLOMAT – BLOOMBERG

* * *

With just under 24 hours until Monday’s final summit after which even JPMorgan now agrees the ECB will be forced to use a nuclear option and limit or cut Greek ELA thus imposing capital controls as a “negotiating tactic”, earlier today both France and Germany told Greece it must have a reform deal agreement with the Troika finalized and delivered before a crucial leaders’ summit between Athens and its creditors on Monday; in other words before trading opens on Monday.

Read moreGreece Told To Have A Deal Ready Before Monday Meeting; Tsipras Submits Revised Plan With No Pension Cuts

Greece and eurozone leaders in last-ditch scramble to reach deal

H/t reader M.G.:

“Unless all three creditors agree that Greece can borrow more money to make a payment………nothing will work? Reading this article tells me the entire plan is insane…………..


Greece

Greece and eurozone leaders in last-ditch scramble to reach deal (Guardian, June 21, 2015):

Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, is thought to have offered concessions on VAT and pensions in return for some form of eventual debt relief

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, and European leaders were attempting to stitch together a last-minute Greek bailout deal on Sunday following a frantic round of phone calls to discuss an outline agreement.

The high-level diplomacy comes as eurozone finance ministers and their government leaders prepare for a key summit in Brussels on Monday that could determine whether or not Greece remains a member of the group.

Read moreGreece and eurozone leaders in last-ditch scramble to reach deal

Meanwhile, Greece Is Quietly Printing Billions Of Euros

EurosPrint

Meanwhile, Greece Is Quietly Printing Billions Of Euros (ZeroHedge, June 20, 2015):

Earlier today we showed why Greece is now literally living on borrowed time. The combined €2.9 billion in ELA cap increases ‘generously’ bestowed upon the flailing Greek banking sector by the ECB last week looks to have been barely enough to keep things from “ending very differently” (to quote Kathimerini) at the ATMs on Friday.

But perhaps more importantly from a big picture perspective, Greece may have already breached the upper limit of its borrowing base. JPM calculates Greek banks’ eligible collateral at €121 billion (€38 billion in EFSF bonds €8 billion in government securities, and €75 billion in “credit claims”). With Friday’s ELA increase, the country’s total borrowings (that’s OMO plus ELA) amount to some €125 bilion. Why would the ECB allow this? Because it knows the breach will be promptly limited or reversed on Monday, or there will be a deal.

So, it is literally “deal or no deal” time, because if JPM is correct and eligible collateral was either exhausted two weeks ago or, in the best case scenario, is right at the limit, capital controls will need to be put in place as early as Tuesday at which point the ATMs will officially stop dispensing freshly-minted euros which, incidentally, brings up an important point. As Barclays notes, during the same period over which Greek banks lost nearly €30 billion in deposits, banknotes in circulation jumped by some €13 billion. In short, because Greeks are increasingly prone to stuffing their euros in mattresses, a large proportion of the deposit flight has come in the form of hard currency withdrawals, meaning the Bank of Greece is forced to (literally) print billions in physical banknotes:

Read moreMeanwhile, Greece Is Quietly Printing Billions Of Euros