Housing Bubble

Existing Home Sales Extrapolation Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007

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– Existing Home Sales Extrapolation Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007 (ZeroHedge, Aug 20, 2015):

By the miracle of NAR extrapolation and seasonal adjustment, the SAAR Existing Home Sales data just printed 5.59mm units – the highest since Feb 2007. Sales were dominated by increases in The West and The South with The Northeast falling. We have two questions for NAR – where are the buyers coming from… and how long is this sustainable?

What’s wrong with this picture?

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Some other data from the NAR: median prices.

Read moreExisting Home Sales Extrapolation Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007

London Housing Bubble Watch: $630/Month For A Bed “In” A Shared Kitchen!

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 –    London Housing Bubble Watch: $630/Month For A Bed “In” A Shared Kitchen! (ZeroHedge, May 13, 2015):

You know it’s a bubble when… A listing has appeared online advertising a single bed in a house in London where the mattress is located in the kitchen.

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Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession

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– Why The Record Drop In Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already In A Recession (ZeroHedge, April 18, 2015):

If one compares the history of the Chinese and US housing bubbles, one observes that it was when US housing had dropped by about 6% following their all time highs in November 2005, that the US entered a recession. This is precisely where China is now: a 6.1% drop following the all time high peak in January of 2014. If the last US recession is any indication, the Chinese economy is now contracting! So much for hopes of 7% GDP growth this year.

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UK Housing Bubble Bursts: Sales Of Luxury Homes Crash By 80%; “Waves Of Wealthy People Are Leaving”

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for sale uk

From the article:

As the FT reports, “sales of homes worth more than £2m have dropped by 80 per cent in the past year.”… “It is like the 1970s again, when waves of wealthy people left Britain and it was a disaster.”

– UK Housing Bubble Bursts: Sales Of Luxury Homes Crash By 80%; “Waves Of Wealthy People Are Leaving” (ZeroHedge, April 12, 2015):

About a year ago, when the Chinese housing bubble had just begun to burst (as a reminder Chinese house prices are now crashing at a faster pace than in the US after Lehman) and forcing the real estate bubble blowers to consider a different venue, namely the stock market, another housing bubble several thousand miles away was in full blown escape velocity mode – that of the UK. In fact, as we showed in the following table from last June, the appreciation in UK home prices had surpassed that of China as recently as 10 months ago.

Read moreUK Housing Bubble Bursts: Sales Of Luxury Homes Crash By 80%; “Waves Of Wealthy People Are Leaving”

The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst

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– The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst (ZeroHedge, March 24, 2015):

Energy accounts for 10% of Canadian GDP and around 25% of exports and the swift fall in oil prices is having a profound effect in the nation’s oil producing regions where home sales are collapsing by as much as 65%.

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Crash Landing: China Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record, Surpass Post-Lehman Collapse

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– Crash Landing: China Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record, Surpass Post-Lehman Collapse (ZeroHedge, March 18, 2015):

Less than three weeks ago, when the PBOC proceeded with its latest “surprise” rate cut, we showed a chart that should scare everyone who is hoping that China will avoid a hard-landing would prefer would never have been revealed: the annual collapse in Chinese home prices is now so sharp and so widespread, that it has surpassed the housing collapse in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse.” Overnight things went from bad to worse, when China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that contrary to hopes for a modest rebound, China’s average new home prices fell at the fastest pace on record in February from a year earlier.

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This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting

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– This Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting (ZeroHedge, Oct 28, 2014):

Back in June we first observed that “America’s Most Important Housing Market Signals A Red Alert For Housing Bubble Watchers” and showed the following chart:

San Fran housing market

Read moreThis Has Never Happened Before Without A Massive Bubble Bursting

California Leads Housing Slowdown As Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row

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– California Leads Housing Slowdown As Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row (ZeroHedge, Oct 27, 2014):

Following misses in yesterday’s Markit Service PMI, Existing Home Sales and the Dallas Fed report, and today’s Durable Goods numbers, we just made it a pentafecta for misses in US econ data, when the just released August Case-Shiller data for August confirmed once again that US housing is rapidly slowing down, when the Top 20 Composite Index (Seasonally Adjusted) posted another decline in August, its fourth in a row, declining by -0.15% and missing expectations of a modest 0.2% rebound (following last month’s -0.5%) decline. The best summary of the situation came from S&P’s David Blitzer: “The deceleration in home prices continues… The Sun Belt region reported its worst annual returns since 2012, led by weakness in all three California cities — Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego.” But who cares what the birth (and death) place of every housing bubble is doing, right?

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Burst Chinese Housing Bubble Leads To First Annual Price Decline Since 2012; Prices Drop In Record 69 Cities

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– Burst Chinese Housing Bubble Leads To First Annual Price Decline Since 2012; Prices Drop In Record 69 Cities (ZeroHedge, Oct 24, 2014):

 It has been over six months since the Chinese housing bubble has popped. What’s worse, as overnight housing numbers out of China confirmed, the government has so far failed to contain the fallout, and according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which is anything but, after a fifth straight monthly decline, Chinese home prices have now wiped out all price gains in the past year. This was immediately spun as bullish by media outlets and sellside experts as “raising expectations the government will have to implement more economic support measures to cushion the blow.” I.e., buy stocks because central banks will push risk prices artificially higher yet again. In other words, bad is still good and failure continues to be success.

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China Housing Bubble Bursts: Q3 Land Sales Crater 50%

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– China Housing Bubble Bursts: Q3 Land Sales Crater 50% (ZeroHedge, Sep 29, 2014):

China may be doing everything in its power to divert attention from the simple fact that its housing bubble, the largest in the world in terms of both assets comprising it as well as divergence from fair value, has burst. But while there is no clear threshold of what constitutes a bursting bubble when it comes to housing, the latest data out of Soufun, China’s largest real-estate website, which said that land sales have dropped a massive 22% to 1.7 trillion Yuan in 2014 so far, is likely as clear an indication as any that Beijing is about to panic.

And if that was not enough Bloomberg adds that land sales in 300 cites followed by Soufun fell almost 50% Y/Y to 415.9 billion yuan in 3Q, while residential land sales declined more than 50% to 265.3b yuan in 3Q.

Read moreChina Housing Bubble Bursts: Q3 Land Sales Crater 50%

French Housing ‘In Total Meltdown’, ‘Current Figures Are Disastrous’

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hollande113

– French Housing “In Total Meltdown”, “Current Figures Are Disastrous” (ZeroHedge, July 30, 2014):

If Venezuela is the case study of a country in the late stages of transition into a socialist utopia, then France is the clear runner up. The most recent case in point, aside from the already sliding French economy, whose recent contraction can be best seen be deteriorating PMI data…

France vs Europe PMI

… which hints at the dreaded “triple dip” recession, nowhere is the economic collapse in France more evident than in its housing market which as even Bloomberg admits, citing industry participants, is now “in total meltdown.”

The reason? The belief of the socialist president that a few economists know better than the overall market, especially when the sanctity of the “fairness doctrine” and the greater good is to be upheld at all costs. To wit: “French President Francois Hollande’s government may have made a housing slump worse, pushing the construction market to its lowest in more than 15 years. Housing starts fell 19 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, and permits — a gauge of future construction — dropped 13 percent, the French Housing Ministry said yesterday.“

Read moreFrench Housing ‘In Total Meltdown’, ‘Current Figures Are Disastrous’

The Rot Within, Part I: Our Ponzi Economy

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– The Rot Within, Part I: Our Ponzi Economy (OfTwoMinds, July 21, 2014):

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Depending on blowing the next bubble to temporarily prop up the economy is the height of foolhardy shortsightedness. Yet that’s our Status Quo, increasingly dependent on inflating bubbles to evince “economic strength” when the Ponzi paint will soon peel off the rotten wood of the real economy.

Phoenix Housing Market Hit By Unprecedented Plunge In Demand

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Flashback:

– Inflation, Hyperinflation and Real Estate (Price Collaps)

– Phoenix Housing Market Hit By Unprecedented Plunge In Demand (ZeroHedge, July 14, 2014):

The Phoenix housing market has a special place in the heart of housing bubble watchers: together with Las Vegas and various California MSAs, this is the place where the last housing bubble was born and subsequently died a gruesome death which nearly brought down the entire financial system. Which is why the monthly WP Carey report on the Greater Phoenix Housing Market is of peculiar interest for those who want to catch a leading glimpse into the overall state of the bubble US housing market. As hoped, this month’s letter does not disappoint. What we find is that while equilibrium prices have been largely flat month over month, and are up 6% on an average square foot basis from a year ago, something very bad is happening with a key component of the pricing calculation: demand has fallen off a cliff.

Some of the disturbing findings from the report:

Read morePhoenix Housing Market Hit By Unprecedented Plunge In Demand

China’s Replica Of Manhattan Results In Yet Another Ghost City (Video)

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– China’s Replica Of Manhattan Results In Yet Another Ghost City (ZeroHedge, June 27, 2014):

While the growth of China’s ghost cities of entirely derelict and unlived-in residential real estate have become anathema; the story of the nation’s ‘if we build it they will come’ commercial real estate bubble has been less exposed but is no less incredible. As Bloomberg reports, China’s project to build a replica Manhattan is taking shape against a backdrop of vacant office towers and unfinished hotels, underscoring the risks to a slowing economy from the nation’s unprecedented investment boom. Stunningly, the development has failed to attract tenants since the first building was finished in 2010 leaving one commercial real estate investor to proclaim, “Investing here won’t be better than throwing money into the water… There will be no way out – it will be very difficult to find the next buyer.”

China’s own Big Apple may be rotting from the core. A new central business district modeled after New York City is going up in Tianjin…but the nation’s slowing economy is exacerbating the risks from its unprecedented credit binge…and that’s putting China’s Manhattan project in jeopardy. Bloomberg TV’s China Correspondent Stephen Engle reports.

As Bloomberg explains,

Read moreChina’s Replica Of Manhattan Results In Yet Another Ghost City (Video)

RECOVERY: Half Of Americans Can’t Afford Their House

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– Half of Americans can’t afford their house (Market Watch, June 4, 2014):

As the housing market slowly recovers, a majority of homeowners and renters are finding it hard to meet rising rents and mortgage payments, new research finds.

Over half of Americans (52%) have had to make at least one major sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage over the last three years, according to the “How Housing Matters Survey,” which was commissioned by the nonprofit John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and carried out by Hart Research Associates. These sacrifices include getting a second job, deferring saving for retirement, cutting back on health care, running up credit card debt, or even moving to a less safe neighborhood or one with worse schools.

Read moreRECOVERY: Half Of Americans Can’t Afford Their House

China Has A Housing Bubble In ‘Some Cities’, PBOC Admits

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– China Has A Housing Bubble In “Some Cities”, PBOC Admits (ZeroHedge, May 23, 2014):

While US central bankers shudder at the idea of admitting their could be a bubble in real estate or stocks (unless its obvious in hindsight); and England’s Bank of England explains ‘if there is a bubble, it’s not their fault, but there isn’t so there’; it appears the Chinese are more comfortable with the truth. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports, China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, China may have a housing bubble only in “some cities,” – an issue that’s difficult to resolve with a single nationwide policy. As concerns mount of dramatic over-supply on the back of extrapolated urbanization dreams, Zhou notes, “The economy has slowed down a bit, but not very much,” adding that “we should keep vigilance on whether it continues to slow down.” Which is odd because US talking heads have made up their minds that China is fixed…

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Bizarro Housing Bubble Spills Over Into “Overbid Madness”, $10 Million “Flips” In 24 Hours

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– Bizarro Housing Bubble Spills Over Into “Overbid Madness”, $10 Million “Flips” In 24 Hours (ZeroHedge, May 10, 2014):

While the housing bubble for anything but the ultra luxury segment has long since popped with $1.1 trillion of student loans playing a significant role in the burst, (as explained in “Stick A Fork In The “Housing Recovery“), as can be seen in the chart below which shows that the only increase in existing home sales from a year ago is that for the $500 and over price range (which accounts for only 10% of all actual transactions)….

Houses by price range_0

… when it comes to the luxury segment, things have moved beyond the simply bizarre and have entered outright surreal territory.

Read moreBizarro Housing Bubble Spills Over Into “Overbid Madness”, $10 Million “Flips” In 24 Hours

Real Overpriced Counties of America: Orange County named most overpriced county in the entire United States. Fitch Ratings and Trulia point to a bubble in the OC with prices overvalued by 30 percent.

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– Real Overpriced Counties of America: Orange County named most overpriced county in the entire United States. Fitch Ratings and Trulia point to a bubble in the OC with prices overvalued by 30 percent. (Dr. Housing Bubble, April 29, 2014):

When it comes to real estate, we know that Californians enjoy drinking from the gold cup of mania. Lusting over real estate seems to be as common as traffic on the 405. People in California have a deep rooted cultural and economic amnesia. I bet half the population has very little idea regarding the history of many cities in Southern California. Heck, most don’t even know where their drinking water comes from. So trying to discuss Fed policy, skewing based on investors, or market manipulation with a large portion of people is like talking to your dog about Hemmingway. Some people only understand “real estate goes up!” and when it doesn’t, they only understand “buying is bad!” California real estate is overvalued by most economic measures. Sure, people are willing to pay insane prices but they did this as well in 2006 and 2007 and people also paid crazy prices for tech companies in a previous delusion based boom. Investors are pulling back because they simply don’t perceive value at current prices. We are now seeing more reports putting a price on how overvalued the region is. Fitch Ratings and Trulia both point to SoCal as being massively overpriced. In fact, Fitch Ratings has Orange County overvalued by a whopping 30 percent. Congratulations to Orange County for being the most overpriced county in the entire United States.

Read moreReal Overpriced Counties of America: Orange County named most overpriced county in the entire United States. Fitch Ratings and Trulia point to a bubble in the OC with prices overvalued by 30 percent.

The Canadian Housing Bubble Puts Even The US To Shame

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– The Canadian Housing Bubble Puts Even The US To Shame (ZeroHedge, April 27, 2014):

Since the bursting of the first US housing bubble in 2007, one of the primary explicit goals of the Fed has been to reflate the very same housing bubble (whose pop, together with the credit bubble, nearly wiped out the western financial system) as housing, far more than stocks, is instrumental to the “wealth effect” of the broader population (as opposed to just the 1%).

Sadly for the Fed, instead of recovering previous highs, median housing prices (not to be confused with the ultraluxury high end where prices have never been higher) have stagnated and are now in the downward phase of the fourth consecutive dead cat bounce, curiously matching a like amount of Fed monetary injection episodes.

Read moreThe Canadian Housing Bubble Puts Even The US To Shame

Fed’s Charles Plosser Admits Fed Was Responsible For Last Housing Bubble, Doesn’t Want To ‘Create Another’

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– Fed’s Plosser Admits Fed Was Responsible For Last Housing Bubble, Doesn’t Want To “Create Another” (ZeroHedge, July 12, 2013):

The “mutinying” half of the Fed – that which the FOMC minutes indicated wanted an end to QE by the end of 2013 – is not going to take Bernanke’s Wednesday steamrolling lying down. Enter Charles Plosser, who becomes a voting member next year:

  • PLOSSER SAYS FED SHOULD HALT QE BY END OF THIS YEAR

Good luck there. But here is the punchline:

Read moreFed’s Charles Plosser Admits Fed Was Responsible For Last Housing Bubble, Doesn’t Want To ‘Create Another’