Black Friday: Run on the System

Stock markets across the world are in a state of hysteria. The tidal wave of sell-offs, which began when Henry Paulson announced the Bush administration’s $700 billion bailout plan for the sinking banking system, has swelled into a global tsunami racing round the globe.

Shares fell sharply across Europe and Asia for the fifth straight day following a 679 drop on the Dow Jones.  Nearly $900 billion was wiped off the value of U.S. equities in just one trading day. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the “fear index”, soared to a record 64.

Credit markets remain frozen. Libor, the London interbank offered rate, nudged up slightly on Thursday night, signaling even greater resistance to lending between the banks. Until there is relief in the credit markets, stocks will continue to slide. But trust has vanished. The 50 basis points rate cut that was coordinated with foreign central banks has had no effect. The market is being driven by fear and pessimism.

Read moreBlack Friday: Run on the System

Mutual Fund Withdrawals a Record as Investors Flee

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Investors pulled a record $52.1 billion from U.S.-managed stock and bond mutual funds in the past week, seeking the safety of government-insured bank deposits as the financial crisis worsened.

Shareholders took $43.3 billion from stock funds and $8.8 billion from bond funds in the week ended Oct. 8, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The exodus followed $72.3 billion of outflows in September, the most in a single month. Investors deposited $185.5 billion into bank accounts last month through Sept. 22, TrimTabs said, citing U.S. Federal Reserve data.

“People are scared,” Conrad Gann, TrimTabs’ chief operating officer, said in an interview. “This market is different from what we’ve seen before.”

The five largest diversified U.S. stock fund managers, including Fidelity Investments and Vanguard Group Inc., posted an average 28 percent loss this year through Oct. 6, about 2 percentage points worse than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Morningstar Inc. Investors mostly switched into fixed-income through August, putting $97 billion into bond funds while withdrawing $74 billion from stock funds, TrimTabs said.

Read moreMutual Fund Withdrawals a Record as Investors Flee

U.S. Treasury May Buy Stakes in Banks Within Weeks

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — The government is planning to buy stakes in a wide range of banks within weeks as the credit freeze increasingly threatens to tip the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top aides are still considering options on how the purchases would work, including having the government acquire preferred stock, two officials informed of the matter said.

The move would be a shift in emphasis in Paulson’s original intention for the $700 billion bailout package passed by Congress last week. While the Treasury still aims to buy troubled mortgage-backed securities from financial institutions, a direct capital injection would offer more immediate relief by giving banks quick access to funds they could then lend out.

“The Treasury is no longer looking for one silver bullet,” said Steve Bartlett, president of the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents 100 of the biggest firms in the industry. “They have to proceed on all fronts.”

Read moreU.S. Treasury May Buy Stakes in Banks Within Weeks

The Dollar is Doomed

When the precious metals were smashed out of nowhere and the dollar started climbing this summer I became very worried. I didn’t question my conviction that commodities are in a bull market, or that precious metals in particular are undervalued. I felt something sinister was at work. Neither move was justified on a fundamental level. I assumed that something very bad was about to happen and the metals needed to be brought lower in advance of the bad news.

Now we have a glimpse at the ugly consequences foreseen by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. In early September, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized with a financial commitment of USD$200 billion from the taxpayers. Incredibly, the loan limits at the former GSEs were raised from $417,000 to $729,750 in March when it was more than obvious these institutions needed to be reined in. Like most bailouts and bank failures, this one was announced on a weekend to limit the impact on the stock markets.

As I mentioned in last month’s issue, Treasury Secretary Paulson was under severe pressure to act, as the Chinese started selling Fannie and Freddie bonds while threatening further retribution. Common shareholders were left with nothing, while bondholders like Pimco and Asian central banks benefited. The small investor was stung again, as taxpayer dollars were used to bail out foreigners and wealthy Americans in a policy that Jim Rogers terms “socialism for the rich.”

Unfortunately, $200 billion is just the tip of the iceberg. As the government has assumed responsibility for Fannie and Freddie’s $5.4 trillion in liabilities, the Congressional Budget Office correctly states that these institutions “should be directly incorporated into the federal budget.” The Bush Administration has strongly opposed this move.

Read moreThe Dollar is Doomed

Citigroup Girds for Wachovia Takeover Battle With Wells Fargo

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc., hobbled by $61 billion of subprime-related losses, now faces its biggest takeover battle in a fight with Wells Fargo & Co. for control of Wachovia Corp.

Citigroup fell as much as 21 percent yesterday in New York trading after Wells Fargo, the biggest U.S. bank on the West Coast, agreed to acquire all of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia for $15.1 billion. The bid trumped Citigroup’s government-backed offer of $2.16 billion for Wachovia’s banking operations.

“The taxpayer doesn’t pay a penny” for the Wells Fargo deal, Wells Chairman Richard Kovacevich, 64, said yesterday in an interview. His company’s bid is superior to Citigroup’s also because it’s a higher price and the combining banks “share similar cultures and values.”

Read moreCitigroup Girds for Wachovia Takeover Battle With Wells Fargo

Wachovia faced a silent bank run

Fearing a loss of funding over the weekend, the FDIC forced the sale.


10/02/08 Downtown Charlotte skyline showing the Wachovia First Street Campus headquarters project under construction. DAVIE HINSHAW of the Observer from WCNC’s AirStar36

On Friday, with its stock plunging 27 percent, Wachovia experienced a “silent run” on deposits, but the bigger worry for regulators was that other banks wouldn’t provide the Charlotte bank with necessary short-term funding when it opened for business Monday, sources familiar with the situation told the Observer.

With Wachovia already looking for a merger partner, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., in consultation with other regulators, required the bank to reach a sale to Citigroup on Monday morning.

The FDIC, for the first time, used legislative authority created in 1991 to help it deal with a “very large complex bank failure” on short notice. It requires approval from heavy hitters – two-thirds of FDIC board members, two-thirds of Federal Reserve board members as well as the Treasury secretary, who must consult with the president.

“When Wachovia opened Monday it would not have had a source of liquidity,” a source familiar with the situation said. “It really could not have opened under those circumstances. That’s why (the FDIC) put together the assistance package.”

Read moreWachovia faced a silent bank run

Why Paulson has not explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people

Related:
“An open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention,” Paulson said 18 months ago.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declared that the current turmoil in markets and financial institutions ultimately will “make things better.” (September 15, 2008)

The mystery has been solved

For nearly a year, we have been asking ourselves why the investors and foreign banks that bought up hundreds of billions of dollars of worthless mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from US investment banks have not taken legal action against these same banks or initiated a boycott of US financial products to prevent more people from getting ripped off?

Now we know the answer. It’s because, behind the scenes, Henry Paulson and Co. were working out a deal to dump the whole trillion dollar mess on the US taxpayer. That’s what this whole $700 billion boondoggle is all about; wiping out the massive debts that were generated in the biggest incident of fraud in history.

Rep Brad Sherman explained it like this last night to Larry Kudlow:

“It (The bill) provides hundreds of billions of dollars of bailouts to foreign investors. It provides no real control of Paulson’s power. There is a critique board but not really a board that can step in and change what he does. It’s a $700 billion program run by a part-time temporary employee and there is no limit on million dollar a month salaries……. It’s very clear. The Bank of Shanghai can transfer all of its toxic assets to the Bank of Shanghai of Los Angeles which can then sell them the next day to the Treasury. I had a provision to say if it wasn’t owned by an American entity even a subsidiary, but at least an entity in the US, the Treasury can’t buy it. It was rejected.

The bill is very clear. Assets now held in China and London can be sold to US entities on Monday and then sold to the Treasury on Tuesday. Paulson has made it clear he will recommend a veto of any bill that contained a clear provision that said if Americans did not own the asset on September 20th that it can’t be sold to the Treasury. Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to bail out foreign investors. They know it, they demanded it and the bill has been carefully written to make sure it can happen.”

So, why hasn’t the Treasury Secretary explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people? Could it be that he knows that his $700 billion bailout would end up like the Hindenburg, vanishing in sheets of flames?

Read moreWhy Paulson has not explained the real purpose of the bailout to the American people

Senate May Try to Revive Financial-Rescue Legislation


U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, left, and Senator Judd Gregg, a Republican from New Hampshire, speak to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Sept. 29, 2008. Photographer: Jay Mallin/Bloomberg News

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Senate will try to salvage a $700 billion financial-rescue package after the measure was defeated in the House of Representatives. The lawmakers won’t have a lot of room to negotiate.

While the legislation will need to be tweaked enough to win over reluctant House Republicans, the lawmakers will risk losing votes from Democrats if they veer too far from the delicate compromise that congressional leaders hammered out with the U.S. Treasury.

“They’re not going to totally revamp the bill,” said Pete Davis, president of Davis Capital Investment Ideas in Washington, who spoke to House and Senate leaders yesterday. “They’ll make some minor changes and pass it. This is all about political cover.”

Read moreSenate May Try to Revive Financial-Rescue Legislation

FDIC Announces Citigroup to Buy Wachovia

Citigroup has agreed to buy Wachovia bank in a deal brokered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to avoid another major corporate failure in the midst of the ongoing financial crisis.

The FDIC announced the deal on its Web site this morning. No price for the transaction was included in the announcement. But the FDIC said that the deal hinged on a loss sharing arrangement between Citigroup and the FDIC, the agency responsible for insuring bank deposits.

Wachovia has been saddled by mortgage-related losses. Under the terms of the deal, Citigroup will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans. The FDIC will be responsible for any losses beyond that, but was given $12 billion in Citigroup preferred stock and warrants in return for that guaranty.

The Wachovia purchase is the second major bank buyout orchestrated by the FDIC in the last week. The agency also helped arrange the sale of the failed Washington Mutual to J.P. Morgan Chase.

Read moreFDIC Announces Citigroup to Buy Wachovia

WaMu: The biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

JPMorgan Buys WaMu Bank Business as Thrift Seized

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third- biggest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to acquire Washington Mutual Inc.’s deposits and branches for $1.9 billion after regulators seized the thrift in the biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

Customers withdrew $16.7 billion from WaMu accounts since Sept. 16, leaving the Seattle-based bank “unsound,” the Office of Thrift Supervision said today. WaMu’s branches will open tomorrow and customers will have full access to all their accounts, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said on a conference call.

WaMu’s fate played out as Congress debated an accord to end the global credit crunch that drove Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and IndyMac Bancorp out of business and led to the hastily arranged rescues of Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos., which was itself absorbed by JPMorgan. WaMu in March rebuffed a takeover offer from JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon that WaMu valued at $4 a share.

Read moreWaMu: The biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

WaMu shares plummet 25%

WaMu Said to Approach Blackstone as Bailout Debated

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Washington Mutual Inc.’s options may be dwindling as potential bidders shy away from making an offer because it’s not clear how much the proposed $700 billion U.S. bank rescue package will benefit the Seattle-based lender.

Five banks that were considering bids, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., have failed to make an offer in the week since WaMu put itself up for sale. WaMu next approached Carlyle Group and Blackstone Group LP, two people briefed on the matter said. Those talks are preliminary, and hinge on the government’s role in helping WaMu, which faces an estimated $19 billion in bad loans, the people said, speaking anonymously because the discussions are private.

“A WaMu deal is likely frozen until the bailout gets worked out,” said Steven Kaplan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. “People aren’t in a hurry to make any decision until they know what’s coming out of Washington.”

WaMu is under increasing pressure to strike a deal as its stock sags and ratings companies pummel its debt. Standard & Poor’s yesterday cut WaMu’s rating for the second time in nine days, dropping it to CCC from BB-. WaMu’s regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which guarantees customer deposits, have declined to comment.

Read moreWaMu shares plummet 25%

FDIC May Need $150 Billion Bailout as Local Bank Failures Mount

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Deborah Horn tugs on the handle of the glass-paned entrance of the IndyMac Bancorp Inc. branch in Manhattan Beach, California. The door won’t budge. The weekend is approaching, and Horn, 44, the sole breadwinner in a family of three, needs cash.

A small notice taped to the window on this Friday afternoon in mid-July tells her why she’s been locked out. IndyMac has failed, the single-spaced, letter-sized paper says; the bank is now in the hands of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Read moreFDIC May Need $150 Billion Bailout as Local Bank Failures Mount

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Become Banks, Ending an Era for Wall Street


U.S. flags fly outside the headquarters of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in New York, Sept. 16, 2008. Photographer: Gino Domenico/Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — The Wall Street that shaped the financial world for two decades ended last night, when Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley concluded there is no future in remaining investment banks now that investors have determined the model is broken.

The Federal Reserve’s approval of their bid to become banks ends the ascendancy of the securities firms, 75 years after Congress separated them from deposit-taking lenders, and caps weeks of chaos that sent Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and led to the rushed sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp.

“The decision marks the end of Wall Street as we have known it,” said William Isaac, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. “It’s too bad.”

Goldman, whose alumni include Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary presiding over a $700 billion bank bailout, and Morgan Stanley, a product of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that cleaved investment and commercial banks, insisted they didn’t need to change course, even as their shares plunged and their borrowing costs soared last week.

Read moreGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Become Banks, Ending an Era for Wall Street

Treasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration sought unchecked power from Congress to buy $700 billion in bad mortgage investments from financial companies in what would be an unprecedented government intrusion into the markets.

Through his plan, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson aims to avert a credit freeze that would bring the financial system and the world’s largest economy to a standstill. The bill would prevent courts from reviewing actions taken under its authority.

“He’s asking for a huge amount of power,” said Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University. “He’s saying, `Trust me, I’m going to do it right if you give me absolute control.’ This is not a monarchy.”

Read moreTreasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Financial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable


Hard times: central banks have acted to avoid a repeat of 1929

So, here we are – the start of a new world order. After the tumultuous events of the last fortnight, the global economic landscape will never look the same again.

Power has tangibly shifted – away from the United States and the Western world generally, and towards the fast-growing giants of the East. That’s been happening for some years now.

But September 2008 marks the moment when the scale of our excesses, the extent of our debts and the moral bankruptcy of our financial regulatory system finally began to be truly exposed.

Read moreFinancial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable

IT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

“I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.”
– Sir Isaac Newton, after losing a fortune in the South Sea bubble

Something extraordinary is going on with these government bailouts. In March 2008, the Federal Reserve extended a $55 billion loan to JPMorgan to “rescue” investment bank Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, a highly controversial move that tested the limits of the Federal Reserve Act. On September 7, 2008, the U.S. government seized private mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and imposed a conservatorship, a form of bankruptcy; but rather than let the bankruptcy court sort out the assets among the claimants, the Treasury extended an unlimited credit line to the insolvent corporations and said it would exercise its authority to buy their stock, effectively nationalizing them. Now the Federal Reserve has announced that it is giving an $85 billion loan to American International Group (AIG), the world’s largest insurance company, in exchange for a nearly 80% stake in the insurer . . . .

The Fed is buying an insurance company? Where exactly is that covered in the Federal Reserve Act? The Associated Press calls it a “government takeover,” but this is not your ordinary “nationalization” like the purchase of Fannie/Freddie stock by the U.S. Treasury. The Federal Reserve has the power to print the national money supply, but it is not actually a part of the U.S. government. It is a private banking corporation owned by a consortium of private banks. The banking industry just bought the world’s largest insurance company, and they used federal money to do it. Yahoo Finance reported on September 17:

Read moreIT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

The Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households

As a trader, I stopped getting disgusted at government manipulation of markets several years ago, didn’t pretend it wasn’t happening, just tried to find when it was coming. I decided to develop an indicator that would tell me when the probability was extremely high that the Master Planners would intervene. That approach has served us well, and that indicator is known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Indicator. It flashed a new “buy” signal Monday, September 15th at the close, rising above positive + 20.00, warning that the decline from August 11th was terminal. The Industrials have risen 565 points since that buy signal. When this measure rises above positive + 20.00, it is usually early, but very right, an early warning indicator telling us to enjoy the decline for a few more trading days but get ready for a spike rally.

The current government market intervention (“manipulation” is probably a more appropriate word) that transpired the past two weeks, reaching crescendo Thursday on a rumor, and Friday on an announcement, is one of the most dramatic since the 1930’s. It really puts into question the notion of U.S. markets being under capitalism, not socialism. The government nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week, announced its intent to nationalize AIG, a component of the Dow 30, this week, and then pulled out all the stops with the Paulson manifesto Friday. Not sure why he didn’t nationalize Lehman Bros, unless it was personal, as he came from competitor Goldman Sachs, and enjoyed watching them declare bankruptcy. Okay, maybe I am a bit cynical — maybe.

Before getting into market performance and the forecast, let’s cover what we know about this historic redefining of the rules of the game that Paulson has placed on the table for Congress to consider next week:

Read moreThe Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households

12th bank failure of the year announced

Regulators close down Ameribank Inc., a West Virginia-based-bank with total assets of $115 million.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Ameribank Inc. was shut down on Friday by the Office of the Thrift Supervision, making it the 12th bank this year to go under.

The Northfork, West Virginia bank had total assets of $115 million and total deposits of $102 million, according to a statement on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Web site.

Read more12th bank failure of the year announced

Ron Paul on the Global Financial Crisis 9/18/08


Added: Sept. 18, 2008

Source: YouTube

Money Market Funds Enter a World of Risk

Money market funds have been among the few places that investors could put their cash and sleep peacefully.

At the moment, that is not necessarily true.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Primary Fund, a giant money market fund whose parent helped invent that investment, said its customers would lose money. Instead of each share being worth a dollar for every dollar invested, it said its customers’ shares were worth only 97 cents. In Wall Street parlance, it “broke the buck,” a rare occurrence.

So far, it appears that no other money market funds have fallen below a dollar a share. And other money market managers have hastened to reassure investors that their money is safe. But the Primary Fund’s announcement did raise this question: What, in today’s world, is truly safe?

Read moreMoney Market Funds Enter a World of Risk

Federal bank insurance fund dwindling

Federal bank insurance fund dwindling, regulators consider options for replenishing it

WASHINGTON (AP) — Banks are not the only ones struggling in the growing financial crisis. The fund established to insure their deposits is also feeling the pinch, and the taxpayer may be the lender of last resort.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., whose insurance fund has slipped below the minimum target level set by Congress, could be forced to tap tax dollars through a Treasury Department loan if Washington Mutual Inc., the nation’s largest thrift, or another struggling rival fails, economists and industry analysts said Tuesday.

Read moreFederal bank insurance fund dwindling

Deposit insurance system may face WaMu test

Attention has focused on the danger presented by the failure of Lehman Brothers. But the failure of a commercial bank such as Washington Mutual can have systemic consequences if it threatens a run on other weak banks.

Washington Mutual – the sixth largest bank in the US – has lost more than a third of its market value recently as investors fear it lacks liquidity and capital to survive the credit crisis.

The failure of a bank its size would test the strength of the US deposit insurance system and its ability to maintain the confidence of the nation’s savers.

Read moreDeposit insurance system may face WaMu test

FDIC shutters Silver State Bank of Nevada

Son of presidential nominee John McCain was reportedly former board member; closing marks the 11th bank failure this year.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development.

It was the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank.

Read moreFDIC shutters Silver State Bank of Nevada

In The Eye Of The Storm

By John Browne, senior market advisor – Euro Pacific Capital

As we enter the height of the hurricane season, it may be worthwhile to recall, when considering the economy at large, the particular deception that lurks in the “eye” of the storm. After a raging tempest, the sudden appearance of the calm ‘eye’ can all too easily encourage people to leave their shelter in order to assess and even repair damage, exposing themselves to the often more devastating second leg of the hurricane.

We have long warned our readers of a coming real estate crash which would then lead to a credit crunch, and eventually a major round of bank failures. We have argued that these developments would be the precursors to a major recession, and perhaps a depression.

As predicted, the collapsing values of bonds backed by subprime mortgages did indeed lead to a collapse of the entire mortgage market, a bank liquidity crisis, a credit crunch and a steep fall in consumer confidence. This was the first leg of the storm, but the full blown banking collapse and the deep recession are not yet manifest. The conventional wisdom holds that the bullet has been dodged.

Read moreIn The Eye Of The Storm

Integrity Bank Becomes 10th U.S. Failure This Year

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) — Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, Georgia, was closed by U.S. regulators today, the 10th bank to collapse this year amid a surge in soured real-estate loans stemming from the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.

Integrity Bank, with $1.1 billion in assets and $974 million in deposits, was shuttered by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Regions Financial Corp., Alabama’s biggest bank, will assume all deposits from Integrity, which was run by Integrity Bancshares Inc. The failed bank’s five offices will open on Sept. 2 as branches of Regions, the FDIC said.

Read moreIntegrity Bank Becomes 10th U.S. Failure This Year