Credit Crunch

U.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression, Economist Shiller Says

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Eight years ago, Yale superstar professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller famously called the top of the stock market in his book Irrational Exuberance. Then, a year before the housing bubble peaked, he predicted the colossal bust we are now experiencing.

If you recognize Shiller’s name, it’s because the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price indexes, which he developed with Wellesley College economist Karl Case, have become the nation’s most authoritative source for home price trends.

In part one of my one-on-one with Shiller, we discuss the grim outlook for U.S. housing, which he tackles in-depth in his new book The Subprime Solution. Highlights of our first discussion include:

  • Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s. With prices already down almost 20%, it’s not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around.
  • There are about 10 million homeowners whose debt is higher than their home value, which has broad implications for how Americans feel about their wealth and spending habits (read: more pressure on consumer spending).
  • The current hopeful consensus — that house prices will bottom soon and then begin to recover — is most likely a dream. Housing markets don’t usually have “V-shaped” recoveries. And even if house prices stabilize in nominal terms, after adjusting for inflation, most homeowners will continue to lose money.

    Read moreU.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression, Economist Shiller Says

Merrill Lynch Cut to `Sell’ at Goldman on Writedowns

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Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co., down 50 percent in New York trading this year, was cut to “sell” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on concern the firm may post more writedowns tied to credit-related investments.

Goldman added the third-biggest U.S. securities company to its “conviction sell” list, according to a report by analysts including William Tanona. The share-price estimate on the stock was lowered 23 percent to $22, compared with yesterday’s closing price of $26.21.

Merrill, battered by more than $40 billion of credit market writedowns, has sold mortgage-linked assets to reduce risk and free up capital. The company trades at 1.25 times book value, compared with 0.95 for Citigroup Inc., the only firm that’s reported larger writedowns and losses stemming from the credit market crunch, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Read moreMerrill Lynch Cut to `Sell’ at Goldman on Writedowns

Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital

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Dollar and yuan currency at a bank in China. China’s central bank has accumulated about $1 trillion in United States debt.

HONG KONG – China’s central bank is in a bind.

It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund.

Now the central bank needs an infusion of capital. Central banks can, of course, print more money, but that would stoke inflation. Instead, the People’s Bank of China has begun discussions with the finance ministry on ways to shore up its capital, said three people familiar with the discussions who insisted on anonymity because the subject is delicate in China.

Read moreMain Bank of China Is in Need of Capital

House prices suffer biggest fall since records began

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House prices: Dropped by more than £25,000 over the past year. Photo: Cate Gillon/Getty

House prices fell by 1.8% in August, bringing the average price of a property in the UK below the government’s new stamp duty threshold, figures showed today.

The UK’s largest lender, Halifax, said the average price of a property had fallen by 12.7% since last August – the biggest fall since it began publishing a monthly survey in the early 1980s.

Prices have dropped by more than £25,000 since August 2007 when the average cost of a home was £199,612, and by more than £3,000 since July.

Read moreHouse prices suffer biggest fall since records began

In The Eye Of The Storm

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By John Browne, senior market advisor – Euro Pacific Capital

As we enter the height of the hurricane season, it may be worthwhile to recall, when considering the economy at large, the particular deception that lurks in the “eye” of the storm. After a raging tempest, the sudden appearance of the calm ‘eye’ can all too easily encourage people to leave their shelter in order to assess and even repair damage, exposing themselves to the often more devastating second leg of the hurricane.

We have long warned our readers of a coming real estate crash which would then lead to a credit crunch, and eventually a major round of bank failures. We have argued that these developments would be the precursors to a major recession, and perhaps a depression.

As predicted, the collapsing values of bonds backed by subprime mortgages did indeed lead to a collapse of the entire mortgage market, a bank liquidity crisis, a credit crunch and a steep fall in consumer confidence. This was the first leg of the storm, but the full blown banking collapse and the deep recession are not yet manifest. The conventional wisdom holds that the bullet has been dodged.

Read moreIn The Eye Of The Storm

JPMorgan Is Facing Federal Probe

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Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. will stop selling interest-rate swaps to government borrowers in the $2.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market roiled by an antitrust probe and the near bankruptcy of Alabama’s most-populous county.

At least seven former JPMorgan bankers are under scrutiny in a Justice Department criminal investigation of whether banks conspired to overcharge local governments on swaps and other derivatives. The bank also is embroiled in negotiations over how to resolve a debt crisis with Jefferson County, Alabama, where the county’s former adviser says a group of firms led by JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, overcharged it by as much as $100 million for financing a new sewer system.

Read moreJPMorgan Is Facing Federal Probe

Lehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank’

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Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may shift about $32 billion of commercial mortgages and real estate to a new company that will be spun off in a move similar to the good-bank-bad-bank model used in the 1980s banking crisis, two people briefed on the discussions said.

Read moreLehman May Shift $32 Billion of Mortgage Assets to `Bad Bank’

Scramble for cash as central banks dry up

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British banks soon could be scrambling for short-term funding once more amid reports that supplies from Threadneedle Street and from Frankfurt may be drying up.

The Bank of England explicitly ruled out extending its Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS), while the European Central Bank is reportedly considering tightening its lending criteria.

The two central banks have been huge suppliers of liquidity to British banks. The SLS is thought to have provided £50 billion or more, while the ECB has lent banks €467 billion (£378 billion) – much of it thought to have gone to UK institutions.

Read moreScramble for cash as central banks dry up

Korea Development’s Min Confirms Talks With Lehman

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A man walks past the Korea Development Bank headquarters in Seoul on Aug. 24, 2008. Photographer: Nasha Lee/Bloomberg News

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) — Korea Development Bank is in talks to buy a stake in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm.

Chief Executive Officer Min Euoo Sung confirmed the discussions in an interview in Seoul today. “I cannot comment further,” said Min, who headed Lehman’s Seoul branch before joining the Korean bank in June. Matthew Russell, a Hong Kong- based spokesman for Lehman, declined to comment.

Read moreKorea Development’s Min Confirms Talks With Lehman

UK: Housing sales sink to worst for 30 years

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· Estate agents average one deal a week as prices fall
· Rics calls for tax-free cash help for first-time buyers

The government is being urged to act swiftly to help drag the ailing property industry up off its knees as housing sales slow to their worst level in three decades and prices continue to decline.

Read moreUK: Housing sales sink to worst for 30 years

Wall Street Journal: New credit hurdle looms for banks

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U.S. and European banks, already burdened by losses and concerns about their financial health, face a new challenge: paying off hundreds of billions of dollars of debt coming due.

At issue are so-called floating-rate notes – securities used heavily by banks in 2006 to borrow money. A big chunk of those notes, which typically mature in two years, will come due over the next year or so, at a time when banks are struggling to raise fresh funds. That’s forcing banks to sell assets, compete heavily for deposits and issue expensive new debt.

The crunch will begin next month, when some $95 billion in floating-rate notes mature. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. analyst Alex Roever estimates that financial institutions will have to pay off at least $787 billion in floating-rate notes and other medium-term obligations before the end of 2009. That’s about 43 percent more than they had to redeem in the previous 16 months.

The problem highlights how the pain of the credit crunch, now entering its second year, won’t end soon for banks or the broader economy. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said on Tuesday that its list of “problem” banks at risk of failure had grown to 117 at the end of June, up from 90 at the end of March. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said her agency might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an expected wave of bank failures. She said the borrowing could be needed to handle short-term cash-flow pressure brought on by reimbursements to depositors after bank failures.

Read moreWall Street Journal: New credit hurdle looms for banks

FBI saw mortgage crisis coming

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A top official warned of widening loan fraud in 2004, but the agency focused its resources elsewhere.


WASHINGTON — Long before the mortgage crisis began rocking Main Street and Wall Street, a top FBI official made a chilling, if little-noticed, prediction: The booming mortgage business, fueled by low interest rates and soaring home values, was starting to attract shady operators and billions in losses were possible.

“It has the potential to be an epidemic,” Chris Swecker, the FBI official in charge of criminal investigations, told reporters in September 2004. But, he added reassuringly, the FBI was on the case. “We think we can prevent a problem that could have as much impact as the S&L crisis,” he said.

Today, the damage from the global mortgage meltdown has more than matched that of the savings-and-loan bailouts of the 1980s and early 1990s. By some estimates, it has made that costly debacle look like chump change. But it’s also clear that the FBI failed to avert a problem it had accurately forecast.

Read moreFBI saw mortgage crisis coming

FDIC gets ready for bank failures

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Regulator, insurer boosts its staff and provisions as it faces its biggest challenge in decades

ATLANTA – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is one of those agencies with a low profile but essential role similar to plumbing or electricity – you don’t notice it until the power’s out or the basement’s flooding.

These days, the FDIC’s folks are busier with the financial equivalent of fixing burst water mains and dead power lines.

Seventy-five years after it was launched during the Great Depression, the bank regulator and insurer is facing its biggest challenge in decades. Many banks in Georgia and across the nation have been battered by the slumping economy and troubled loans to home builders, developers and homeowners.

Hundreds could fail, some industry experts predict. That could force the agency to make good on its promise to insure most customers’ checking and savings deposits up to $100,000 and some retirement accounts up to $250,000, putting pressure on its insurance fund.

Read moreFDIC gets ready for bank failures

The Big Sting Two

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By Bob Chapman

The plan for an economic takedown, the results of rampant market speculations, insiders picking up assets for pennies on the dollar, the coming hyperinflation, the credit crunch, collapse of the dollar carry trade, suppression of metals prices, American meddling in Georgia

Read moreThe Big Sting Two

Credit crunch misery deepens for UBS

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Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP

UBS has underlined its status as one of the biggest losers in the credit crunch by announcing £5.1bn of fresh writedowns and its fourth quarterly loss in a row.

The Swiss bank said this morning that it made a net loss of 358m Swiss francs (£173m) in the second quarter of this year. The loss was caused by its continuing exposure to the US housing market, and a huge outflow of funds as wealthy individuals took their money elsewhere.

The new writedowns push UBS’s total since the crisis started to $42bn, bringing it closer to Citigroup ($47bn) and Merrill Lynch ($46bn).

Read moreCredit crunch misery deepens for UBS

One Third of New Owners Owe More Than House Is Worth

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Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) — Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations.

Second-quarter home prices fell 9.9 percent from a year earlier, giving 29 percent of owners negative equity, said Zillow, the Seattle-based service that offers values for more than 80 million homes. For those who bought at the 2006 peak of the housing market, 45 percent are now underwater, Zillow said.

Read moreOne Third of New Owners Owe More Than House Is Worth

Fed extends emergency loan program for Wall Street

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And because of this Wall Street is celebrating today, but not for long.
Before: Fed: No more bailouts, except Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
And now the Fed wants to bailout Wall Street?
The taxpayer will pay for it all.
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WASHINGTON (AP) – The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it is extending its emergency borrowing program to Wall Street firms and is taking other steps to ease a severe credit crunch that has hobbled the national economy.

Read moreFed extends emergency loan program for Wall Street

Pension plans suffer huge losses

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Report says weak markets, credit crunch have drained $280 billion from plans of largest U.S. companies

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Falling stock markets around the globe and the credit crunch are putting the pension funds of some of the largest U.S. companies into deeper financial holes, according to a report released Monday.

Since the credit crunch hit last fall, pension plans funded by S&P 1500 companies have lost about $280 billion in assets, according to an actuary at Mercer, a human resources consulting firm.

On paper, the losses from last October tally $160 billion. However, according to Mercer actuary Adrian Hartshorn, the asset losses are closer to $280 billion when pension plan assets and liabilities are considered together. The losses amount to about 7% of a total $4 trillion in pension plan assets.

Companies should be concerned, he said, because – assuming no change in the market – a typical U.S. company can expect their pension expenses to increase between 20% and 30% in 2009. That’s due to the higher cost of servicing the pension plan’s debt and the smaller return from the plan’s assets.

“I think it’s important for corporations to be aware of what’s going on in their pension plans, as corporations would be concerned when any part of its business is performing badly,” Hartshorn said.

According to the report, the total losses on pension assets and liabilities from the last day of 2007 through the end of June has grown to more than $80 billion.

Part of the loss has been reflected in companies’ current financial statements, but many losses incurred since the end of 2007 have yet to hit company balance sheets.

Read morePension plans suffer huge losses

USA 2008: The Great Depression

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Food stamps are the symbol of poverty in the US. In the era of the credit crunch, a record 28 million Americans are now relying on them to survive – a sure sign the world’s richest country faces economic crisis

We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.

Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.


Disadvantaged Americans queue for aid in New York

Read moreUSA 2008: The Great Depression