Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies: Greece Is Just A Preview Of What’s Coming For The Rest Of Us (Video)


YouTube

Ben Davies: Greece Is Just A Preview Of What’s Coming For The Rest Of Us (ZeroHedge, Feb. 25, 2012):

All eyes are on Greece these days, with hopes the situation there can soon be resolved and the global recovery kicked into high gear.

Sadly, those hopes are misguided claims Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital. In fact, he says, Greece’s pain foreshadows the future awaiting the rest of the world.

It all comes down to simple math. Greece has increased its debts at a rate far faster than its income has grown. At some point, the debt became so large that the country could no longer service it.

What makes the rest of the PIIGS immune from a similar fate? Or Japan? Or the US? Or the OECD, in general?

Nothing.

Yes, Greece had a smaller, shakier economy and doesn’t have a central bank to print its own currency at will like Japan or the US. But even those countries with a printing press learn that, after a certain point, expanding the money supply only complicates the problem of too much debt by inflating key economic input costs and dangerously weakening the currency.

Read moreHinde Capital CEO Ben Davies: Greece Is Just A Preview Of What’s Coming For The Rest Of Us (Video)

‘Oil Won’t Stop Until The Economy Breaks’

For your information.


“Oil Won’t Stop Until The Economy Breaks” (ZeroHedge, Feb. 24, 2012):

As gold strengthens on the back of the extreme experimentation of the world’s (now-sheep-like) central bankers’ easing and printing protocols, it does no real harm to the world, but as John Burbank (of Passport Capital) notes, the painful unintended consequence of all this liquidity is energy costs skyrocketing – and it won’t stop until the economy breaks. The negative feedback loop, that we pointed to yesterday as potentially the only thing to stall a magnanimously academic response to the insolvency we see around the world (and the need for deleveraging at this end of the debt super-cycle), of oil prices into the real economy will be devastating not just for US but for EM economies, though as the bearded-Burbank reminds us – Saudi benefits greatly (and suggests ways to trade this perspective). Flat consumer incomes while costs are rising is never a good thing and while we make new highs in oil in terms of EURs and GBPs, he warns we may soon in USDs also. Summing up, his perspective is rising tensions in the Middle East combined with central bank liquidity provision are a huge concern: “We’re actually quite bearish. The only reason all this liquidity is coming into the market is because things are really bad. It’s not because things are good. It’s hard to know where things are going to go. The point is, just because they’re putting liquidity in the market doesn’t mean the economy is improving.”

Edited Transcript below:

On the price of oil and his Saudi investments:

“[Oil] is up 16%, more than any of the indices. It’s a big problem for the rest of the world – central bank easing and liquidity providing presents a lot of problems for the average consumer here but also for emerging markets around the world.”

Read more‘Oil Won’t Stop Until The Economy Breaks’

The REAL STORY Your Governments, MSM And The Central Banksters Completely Forgot To Tell You About: ‘The Race To Debase In All Its Glory’ (Chart)

The Race To Debase In All Its Glory (ZeroHedge, Feb. 19, 2012):

Lest anyone forget what the real story is, here is a reminder. Thank you neo-Keynesian economics for making a mockery of non-scientific notation.

Bank Of Japan Goes For ‘Nuclear Option’, Sprays World With Surprising ¥10 Trillion Gift In Valentine’s Day Liquidity

Central banksters turn to the weapon of last resort, the so-called ‘Nuclear Option’  or ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE).

(Quantitative easing = printing money = creating money out of thin air = increasing the money supply = inflation = hidden tax on monetary assets = theft!)


Bank of Japan Sprays World With Surprising ¥10 Trillion Gift In Valentine’s Day Liquidity (ZeroHedge, Feb. 14, 2012):

In a move that will surely shock, shock, the monetary purists out there, the Bank of Japan has just gone and done what we predicted back in May 2011, with the first of our “Hyprintspeed” series articles: “A Look At The BOJ’s Current, And Future, Quantitative Easing” (the second one which discussed the imminent advent of the ¥1 quadrillion in total debt threshold was also fulfilled three weeks ago). So just what did the BOJ do? Why nothing short of join the ECB, the BOE, and the Fed (and don’t get us started on those crack FX traders at the SNB) in electronically printing even more 1 and 0-based monetary equivalents (full statement here). From WSJ: “The Bank of Japan surprised markets Tuesday by implementing new easing policies and moving closer to an explicit price target, the latest sign of growing worries around the world about the ripple effects of the European debt crisis on the global economy. With interest rates already close to zero, the BOJ has relied in recent months on asset purchases to stimulate the economy. In Tuesday’s meeting, the central bank expanded that plan by ¥10 trillion, or about $130 billion. The facility, which includes low-cost loans, is now worth about ¥65 trillion, or $844 billion.” The rub however lies in the total Japanese GDP, which at last check was $6 trillion (give or take), and declining. Which means this announcement was the functional equivalent to a surprise $325 billion QE announced by the Fed. What is ironic is the market reaction: the BOJ expands its LSAP by 18% and the USDJPY moves by 30 pips. As for gold, not a peep: as if the market has now priced in that the world’s central banks will dilute themselves to death. Unfortunately, it is only at death, and the failure of all status quo fiat paper, that the real value of the yellow metal, whose metallic nature continues to be suppressed via paper pathways, will truly shine.

The WSJ explains the BOJ’s stunning decision further:

Only one out of the 11 analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted the BOJ to ease this week.

Read moreBank Of Japan Goes For ‘Nuclear Option’, Sprays World With Surprising ¥10 Trillion Gift In Valentine’s Day Liquidity

Top 3 Central Banks Account For Up To 25% Of Developed World GDP!

Top Three Central Banks Account For Up To 25% Of Developed World GDP (ZeroHedge, Jan. 5, 2012):

For anyone who still hasn’t grasped the magnitude of the central planning intervention over the past four years, the following two charts should explain it all rather effectively. As the bottom chart shows, currently the central banks of the top three developed world entities: the Eurozone, the US and Japan have balance sheets that amount to roughly $8 trillion. This is more than double the combined total notional in 2007. More importantly, these banks assets (and by implication liabilities, as virtually none of them have any notable capital or equity) combined represent a whopping 25% of their host GDP, which just so happen are virtually all the countries that form the Developed world (with the exception of the UK). Which allows us to conclude several things. First, the rapid expansion in balance sheets was conducted primarily to monetize various assets, in the process lifting stock markets, but just as importantly, to find a natural buyer of sovereign paper (in the case of the Fed) and/or guarantee and backstop the existence of banks which could then in turn purchase sovereign debt on their own balance sheet (monetization once removed coupled with outright sterilized asset purchases as is the case of the ECB). And in this day and age of failed economic experiments when a dollar of debt buys just less than a dollar of GDP (there is a reason why the 100% debt/GDP barrier is so informative), it also means that central banks now implicitly account for up to 25% of developed world GDP!

What does this mean? It means that nearly $8 trillion in world economic growth is artificial and exists only courtesy of central bank intervention – if one is looking for the reason why there is no mean reversion to a more stable period of time, there’s your answer. It also means that central banks will never unwind their “assets”, either actively, or passively, by letting them mature, as doing so would effectively mean an accelerated return to a non pro forma status quo, one in which global GDP suddenly finds itself $8 trillion less. It also means that in this age of ongoing consumer and corporate deleveraging, central banks will have no choice but to continue monetizing not to generate incremental growth, but to offset debt destruction elsewhere. And of course, in order to sustain global GDP growth of ~3%, they will have to print even more, in other words, accrue more liabilities (excess reserves) which of course would be funded by monetizing even more paper issuance (which Congress would be delighted to oblige with). Which is why we find the announcement by the Fed that it will notify in advance what the Fed Funds rate will be, to be beyond humorous: after all in an environment of active monetization, the only possible interest rate is zero (although the ECB tried a brief experiment otherwise, when it held higher rates than 1% to combat inflation even as it tried, unsuccessfully, to create a debt monetizing off balance sheet vehicle- the EFSF and the ESM).

Read moreTop 3 Central Banks Account For Up To 25% Of Developed World GDP!

As Expected, The Federal Reserve Has Just Bailed Out The World Once Again!

Here Comes The Global, US-Funded Liquidity Bail Out (ZeroHedge, Nov. 30, 2011):

As expected, the Fed has just bailed out the world once again:

  • FED, ECB, BOJ, BOE, SNB, BANK OF CANADA LOWER SWAP RATES – BBG
  • ECB, FED other major central bank to lower the pricing of existing USD liquidity swaps by 50BPS

And as we have been writing every single day, the worldwide dollar crunch is now confirmed:

  • At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar

And finally, a promise to bailout Bank of America when it hits $4.00 again:

  • U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets.  However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

This means that the global situation is far, far more dire than the talking heads have said. Luckily, when this step fails, which it will, Mars can always come and bail us out.

For release at 8:00 a.m. EDT

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.

Read moreAs Expected, The Federal Reserve Has Just Bailed Out The World Once Again!

Bank Of Japan: Japan Economic Outlook ‘VERY SEVERE’

Apr. 30 (Reuters) – Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Saturday that the country’s economic outlook was very severe and that the central bank would take appropriate action to support the economy.

But he offered few clues on whether and when the BOJ would expand its asset-buying scheme, only saying that its next policy step would depend on economic conditions at the time.

“The BOJ sees the outlook for Japan’s economy as very severe,” Shirakawa told a financial committee meeting in the lower house of parliament.

Read moreBank Of Japan: Japan Economic Outlook ‘VERY SEVERE’

Today’s BOJ Nikkei Plunge Protection Invoice: ¥5 Trillion – Cost to Preserve The Nikkei From Plunging For A 4th Consecutive Day: Roughly $420 Billion So Far

And the real crisis has only just begun:

Japan Nuclear Meltdown: US Calls Radiation Levels ‘Extremely High’ – Fuel Pool Has Burned Dry At The No. 4 Reactor, Leaving Fuel Rods Stored There Exposed And Bleeding Radiation

In other news:

Japanese shares slide again on reactor deterioration (ABC News)

Yen hits record-high against US dollar as Nikkei falls (BBC News)


It appears the earlier speculation by PTI that the BOJ would inject ¥13.8 Trillion in the market to preserve asset prices was a little premature. The BOJ just released the official number and it is a measly ¥5 trillion.

And by measly we mean US$63 billion. Add this to the ¥28 trillion already deployed by the BOJ and get an even more modest ¥33 billion, or roughly $420 billion, which is the cost to preserve the Nikkei from plunging for a 4th consecutive day.

Yet even with this latest injection, the Nikkei is down almost 4% as of this writing. Should headline newsflow from Fukushima deteriorate, we anticipate that the full PTI number will be not only reach by surpassed very promptly as no amount of taxpayer capital will be deemed too great to preserve the wealth of those invested in Japanese stocks.

From Reuters:

The Bank of Japan on Thursday offered to inject a further 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) into the banking system, continuing its effort to calm markets in the wake of the yen’s spike to a record high against the dollar.

That came on top of a total of 28 trillion yen already offered in same-day operations this week in the aftermarth of last Friday’s devastating earthquake and tsunami.

Read moreToday’s BOJ Nikkei Plunge Protection Invoice: ¥5 Trillion – Cost to Preserve The Nikkei From Plunging For A 4th Consecutive Day: Roughly $420 Billion So Far

Japan’s Debt: $80.000 Per Person

See also:

Japan bribes small nations with cash and prostitutes to gain support for the mass slaughter of whales

Japan Mulls Monetisation of Public Debt And Yen Devaluation By 30 Percent

Analysts: Risk of Japan Going Bankrupt is Real


My $80,000 Says Deflation Will Only Get Worse

mt-fuji_risk-of-japan-going-bankrupt-is-real

Naoto Kan may get the state dinners and the motorcades, but he no longer runs Japan. Economist Masaaki Shirakawa does.

If anything is clear since the drubbing that Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan took earlier this week, it’s that politicians are passing the buck to the central bank. Expect Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa to feel more pressure to boost economic growth than ever before.

You may think you have seen this movie before. You haven’t. Increased reliance on the BOJ will end badly for the world economy.

It’s now entirely possible that, come September, Japan will have its sixth leader in four years. Speculation is growing that a power struggle could nudge Kan out of a job he assumed just five weeks ago. That would be a blow to investors. Kan is the only leader in 20 years who has talked seriously about ending Japan’s debt-fueled-growth insanity.

Read moreJapan’s Debt: $80.000 Per Person

Secret Summit of Top Central Bankers in Australia

* World’s top bankers fly in
* To meet at secret location
* Trouble on the horizon

wall-street_003
The high-powered gathering coincides with a fresh meltdown on world sharemarkets (AP)

THE world’s top central bankers began arriving in Australia yesterday as renewed fears about the strength of the global economic recovery gripped world share markets.

Representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank landed in Sydney to meet tomorrow at a secret location, the Herald Sun reports.

Organised by the Bank for International Settlements last year, the two-day talks are shrouded in secrecy with high-level security believed to have been invoked by law enforcement agencies.

Speculation that the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Dr Ben Bernanke, would make an appearance could not be confirmed last night.

The event will be dominated by Asian delegations and is expected to include governors of the Peoples Bank of China, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India.

The arrival of the high-powered gathering coincided with a fresh meltdown on world sharemarkets, sparked by renewed concerns about global growth and sovereign debt.

Fears countries including Greece, Portugal, Spain and Dubai could default on debt repayments combined with disappointing US jobs data to spook investors.

Read moreSecret Summit of Top Central Bankers in Australia

Japan faces unimaginable contraction

Japan’s economy faces an “unimaginable” contraction, the chief economist of its central bank warned on Monday, as figures revealed surging bankruptcies and a big fall in machinery orders.

The warning from Kazuo Momma, head of the Bank of Japan’s research and statistics department, underscored the gloom surrounding the world’s second-largest economy as export orders dry up, companies shut down production lines and consumers stop spending.

Japan, where industrial output plunged a record 9.6 per cent month on month in December, is due to announce fourth-quarter gross domestic product data next week. Polls of economists suggest GDP will have fallen more than 3 per cent compared with the previous quarter – an annualised decline of more than 10 per cent.

“From October to December the scale of negative growth [in GDP] may have been unimaginable – and we have to consider the possibility that there could be even greater decline between January and March,” Mr Momma said in a speech on Monday.

Read moreJapan faces unimaginable contraction

Global Economic Crisis Accelerating

Obama administration considers launch of ‘bad bank’ (Telegraph)

US Initial Jobless Claims Match Highest Since ’82 (Bloomberg)

Barack Obama inauguration: this Emperor has no clothes, it will all end in tears (Telegraph)

Despite billions, banks still teeter on the brink (MSNBC)

Microsoft to shed 5,000 jobs (Financial Times)

Intel to Cut at Least 5000 Jobs (New York Times)

GM Gets $5.4 Billion Loan Installment From Federal Government (CNNMoney)

US jobless claims surge, housing start tumble (Forbes)

Housing Starts, Permits in US Slump to Record Low (Bloomberg)

Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records (New York Times)

Jim Rogers: Now it’s time to emigrate, says investment guru (Independent)

Saudi prince’s firm loses $8.3B in 4Q (AP)

Investors flee after brutal losses at global markets (Emirates Business)

Indians Flee Dubai as Dreams Crash – Fall out of Economic Crisis (Daijiworld):
It’s the great escape by Indians who’ve hit the dead-end in Dubai.

China growth slows, Bank of Japan sees deflation (Forbes):
(Reuters) – China’s economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter and Japan’s central bank on Thursday predicted two years of deflation as Asia’s largest economies buckle under the strain of the financial crisis.

Roubini Sees China Recession Despite ‘Massaged’ GDP (Bloomberg)

Asian economic woe grows as China slows and Japanese exports plunge (Telegraph):
China’s economy may have ground to a halt entirely between the third and fourth quarters of last year and Japanese exports plunged 35pc in December, underlining the scale of the slowdown in Asia.

ZIMBABWE: Inflation at 6.5 quindecillion novemdecillion percent (IRIN)

Sony forecasts $2.9bn operating loss (Financial Times)

Hedge funds’ $400bn withdrawals hit (Financial Times)

Google income drops 68% on one-time charges (IHT)

Is Britain facing bankruptcy? (Guardian)

Manufacturing outlook plummets (Financial Times)

Car production plummets as pressure for industry bail-out grows (Telegraph)

London’s Evening Standard sold to ex-KGB agent (Reuters)

AIG starts $20bn auction of Asian unit (Financial Times):
AIG, the stricken insurance giant, on Wednesday kicked off the sale of its Asian life assurance unit – one of its most prized assets – in the hope of raising up to $20bn to help repay the $60bn US government loan that is keeping the group alive.

UBS to Cut Securities Jobs, Close More Debt Units (Bloomberg)

Japanese Housewives Desperate After Currency Scheme Collapses (Bloomberg)

New age of rebellion and riot stalks Europe (Times Online)

Increase in burglaries shows effect of recession (Guardian)

Chinese media issues stinging attack on Barack Obama and George W Bush (Telegraph)

Barclays may lose control to Gulf investors (Telegraph)

Cars to be crushed in insurance crackdown (Scotsman)

Investors say jailed pilot swiped money for years (Washington Post)

Capital One Reports $1.42 Billion Loss on Charges (Bloomberg)

Nokia reports sharp fall in profits (Financial Times)

Japan’s Economy May Shrink 12.1% This Quarter, Barclays Says


Vehicles bound for export wait in a lot in Yokohama City, Japan on Oct. 27, 2008. Photographer: Haruyoshi Yamaguchi/Bloomberg News

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter, the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse, Barclays Capital said.

Gross domestic product in the three months ending tomorrow will fall at almost three times the 4.1 percent rate previously predicted, said Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays in Tokyo, after reports last week showed industrial production and exports posted the biggest declines on record in November.

“Given the speed and the length of the contraction, this recession could be the most severe in the postwar era,” Morita said. “We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009.”

Read moreJapan’s Economy May Shrink 12.1% This Quarter, Barclays Says

Central banks revolution gathers pace

$20 bills at the Bureau of Printing and Engraving in Washington: central banks are taking unprecedented action to increase the money supply by expanding their balance sheets

A quiet revolution in central banking is gathering speed, as the Federal Reserve ploughs ever deeper into the brave new world of unorthodox monetary policy and other central banks ponder how far they might have to follow.

The world’s central banks have already undergone dramatic changes since the start of the credit crisis more than a year ago. They have cut interest rates with unprecedented rapidity – in some cases to historic lows – and have increased bank reserves massively to meet heightened private sector demand for liquidity.

They have become de facto central counterparties in the money markets, and in some cases even direct lenders to companies. Moreover, by making liquidity available against collateral on terms far more favourable than those that prevail in the private markets, they have become in effect catastrophic risk insurers of last resort for whole classes of financial assets – taking on the risk that the crisis could become so bad that they cannot recoup their loans.

But the latest steps by the Federal Reserve – which cut interest rates virtually to zero last week and said it would create money to finance ever-larger credit operations – break new ground.

Related:
The Neo-Alchemy of the Federal Reserve by Ron Paul
Interview: Peter Schiff still grim on future

Already the Fed arguably has one companion, the Bank of Japan. The BoJ cut rates to nearly zero on Friday, stepped up its purchases of government bonds and said it would buy commercial paper.

Read moreCentral banks revolution gathers pace

Japan slashes interest rates to 0.1%

The Bank of Japan today cut interest rates to 0.1% in another attempt by central banks around the world to drag the global economy out of recession.

The bank’s eight board members voted 7-1 to lower the basic lending rate from 0.3% to 0.1%, following a cut from 0.5% to 0.3% at the end of October.

The decision comes days after the US Federal Reserve voted for record low interest rates of between zero and 0.25%. This month the Bank of England slashed interest rates to 2%, their lowest level in 57 years, and is reportedly considering another cut when its board meets next month.

The central bank governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, described the decline in the global economy as “the most rapid in our lifetime” and said he could not rule out further cuts.

Read moreJapan slashes interest rates to 0.1%

Japan’s Economy in Recession After Shrinking 0.4% Last Quarter


An undated company handout photograph shows Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles bound for export at the company’s Tahara plant in Tahara, Aichi Prefecture, central Japan, released to the media on Oct. 28, 2008. Source: Toyota Motor Corp. via Bloomberg News

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s economy, the world’s second largest, entered its first recession since 2001 last quarter and the government and economists say conditions may get even worse.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Economists predicted the economy would grow 0.1 percent after contracting a revised 3.7 percent in the previous period.

The slowdown may deepen as the global financial crisis hurts exports, prompting companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Canon Inc. to slash profit forecasts and cut investments. Japan has the lowest interest rates among the 20 biggest economies and public debt that exceeds 180 percent of GDP, limiting the government’s ability to stimulate growth.

“It’s only going to get worse,” said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “Japan may be entering its deepest recession in a decade as the global financial crisis cools demand overseas.”

Read moreJapan’s Economy in Recession After Shrinking 0.4% Last Quarter

Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.

The Fed increased its existing currency swaps with foreign central banks to $620 billion from $290 billion to make more dollars available worldwide. The Term Auction Facility, the Fed’s emergency loan program, will expand to $450 billion from $150 billion. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are among the participating authorities.

The Fed’s expansion of liquidity, the biggest since credit markets seized up last year, comes as Congress prepares to vote on a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry. The crisis is reverberating through the global economy, forcing European governments to rescue four banks over the past two days alone.

Read moreFed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System

Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan Lead Global Plan to Pump $247 Billion Into Markets

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the worst crisis facing financial markets since the 1920s.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion “to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.” The Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank also participated.

Policy makers have struggled to revive confidence in markets this week as investors stockpiled money on concern more financial institutions would fail after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. government bailout of American International Group Inc. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt climbed to a record yesterday.

“There’s a complete lack of faith in the markets,” said Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. “There’s a lot of cash hoarding and people losing trust in banks, so the central banks are acting to relieve that. This might not be the last time they have to act.”

Read moreFed, ECB, Bank of Japan Lead Global Plan to Pump $247 Billion Into Markets