Baltic Dry Index – Page 3 – Infinite Unknown

The Bank of International Settlements is the central banks of central banks controlled by the same elite criminals that have created the entire financial crisis.

Whatever game they can play to suppress the ‘price of gold’ – their greatest enemy – they will do it..

It takes a lot to spook the solid old gold market. But when it emerged last week that one or more banks had lent 380 tonnes of gold to the Bank of International Settlements in return for foreign currencies, there was widespread surprise and confusion

Secret gold swap has spooked the market

The news that a mystery bank has just pawned the family jewels gave traders a jolt – nervous about the sudden transfer of almost 20pc of the world’s annual gold production and the possibility of a sell-off.

In a tiny footnote in its annual report, the bank disclosed its unusually large holding of gold, compared with nothing the year before. The disclosure was a large factor in the correction of the gold price this week, which fell below $1,200 for the first time in more than a month.

Concerns hinged on whether the BIS could potentially sell on this vast cache of bullion in the event of a default, flooding the market with liquidity. It appears to have raised $14bn for whoever’s been doing the swapping – small fry on the currency markets, but serious liquidity in the gold market.

Denominated in euros, gold has fallen 8pc since the beginning of the month and is now trading at a seven-week low of €937 per troy ounce.

The big gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) – having peaked at record inflows in May – have also been showing net outflows over the past few days.

Meanwhile, economists and gold market-watchers were determined to hunt down which bank is short of cash – curious about who is using their stash of precious metal for what looks suspiciously like a secret bailout.

At first it looked like the BIS was swapping gold with a troubled central bank. After all, the institution is the central bankers’ bank and its purpose to conduct transactions with national monetary authorities.

Central banks in the troubled southern zone of Europe were considered the most likely perpetrators.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks in Greece, Spain and Portugal held 112.2, 281.6 and 382.5 tons of gold respectively in June – leading analysts to point fingers at Portugal, or a combination of the three.

But Edel Tully, an analyst from UBS, noted that eurozone central banks would be severely limited with what they could do with the influx of extra cash – unable to transfer it straight to governments or make use of the primary bond markets.

She then listed the only other potential monetary authorities with enough gold as the US, China, Switzerland, Japan, Russia, India and Taiwan – and the International Monetary Fund.

This led to musings that the counterparty was the IMF, making sense because the lender of last resort is historically prone to cash shortages and has been quietly selling off gold in the first half of the year.

Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair adopted this explanation. The panic came when people mistook a lease for a swap, he argues. Far from being a big release of gold into the market, it is simply a commercial arrangement between the IMF and BIS with a favourable rate of interest paid for the foreign currency.

China: Credit tightening threatens ‘giant Ponzi scheme’

August 12, 2009August 12, 2009 by Infinite

Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI)

20 day exponential average in red.

200 day exponential average in green.

bdi

I expect the next leg down in the markets any time soon.

After all those banks have invested their bailout/taxpayer money in the stock market it is about time that investors are coming back to their senses and take a look at the fundamentals, realizing that the Fed and the US government have just created another even bigger bubble. Now we have even several bubbles that are about to burst.

The biggest Ponzi scheme in the world is run by the Federal Reserve and not by China.

The Baltic Dry Index is an excellent indicator, because it can’t be (that easily) manipulated.

China is also in trouble, partly because it has also applied the dead wrong US bailout/stimulus policies, but when the world realizes that the US has entered into the Greatest Depression, China – or better China’s elite – will greatly benefit from that.
The people will of course suffer.

China has effectively ‘written off’ its investment in US Treasuries. China is not stupid.

Be prepared.

(Note: This is not an investment advice.)

China’s loan growth plunged in July while exports fell 23pc from a year ago after grinding lower for nine months as consumers in the West tighten their belts further.

Labourers work on a scaffolding at a construction site in Wuhan
Can the world rely on China’s growth miracle to power recovery?

The data raise fresh doubts about the strength of global trade and whether the world can rely on China’s growth miracle to power recovery.

Separately, the Baltic Dry Index – measuring freight rates for bulk goods – has tipped over, dropping 25pc since late July. The shipping figures buttress reports that China has stopped building up stocks of metals and other commodities after a spate of frantic buying over the early summer.

(China does not have stopped building up stocks of metals and other commodities. It is also buying mining companies or at least stakes in them.
– Coal Miner in Australia Agrees to Chinese Bid (New York Times)
– China Hunger for Australia’s Minerals Undeterred by Hu Dispute (Bloomberg)
That trend will continue, because it is China’s best way to diversify itself further away from the soon to be worthless US dollar. 🙂 )

China’s central bank said loan growth fell to $52bn (£31bn) from $248bn a month earlier, although it is too early to tell whether Beijing has begun to rein in credit after the explosion of bank loans in the first half of the year.

The loan figures are being watched closely by analysts and traders in the City. Excess liquidity in China has been a key driver of global markets since the rally began in March.

Beijing is walking a tightrope by trying to offset the collapse in exports – almost 40pc of GDP – with an investment blitz in roads, railways, and industry through state-owned companies.

The real economy cannot absorb the money, so it is leaking into asset speculation. The central bank estimates that 20pc of fresh credit has ended up in equity markets. The Shanghai index is up 80pc this year, though profits have fallen by almost a third. The pattern echoes the final phase of Japan’s Nikkei bubble in 1989.

“China is a big fat tail risk for world markets,” said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. “Shanghai equities have reached the same extreme as in late 2007. The country will have to cut credit growth, and when this happens, Shanghai equities and commodities will suffer. That is what could bring this global rally to a halt.”

China Construction Bank, the number two lender, is cutting loans by 70pc over the second half of the year. “We noticed that some loans didn’t go into the real economy. Housing prices are rising too fast,” said the bank’s president, Zhang Jianguo.

Andy Xie, a leading consultant, said China’s boom was a “giant Ponzi scheme” that was likely to “bring very bad consequences” for the country.

“The stock market is in a final frenzy again. The most ignorant retail investors are being sucked in by rising momentum,” he said. Equities are overvalued by 50pc to 100pc.

Airlines report ‘shocking’ plunge in traffic

January 30, 2009 by Infinite

The airline industry reported on Thursday an “unprecedented and shocking” plunge in global air cargo traffic.

Air freight accounts for 35 per cent of the value of goods traded internationally and the International Air Transport Association said traffic volumes had fallen by 22.6 per cent year-on-year in December.

Giovanni Bisignani, Iata director general, said, “there is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001 (after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US), when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9 per cent.”

“there is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade,” … oh, wait a minute:

– Investmenttools.com
– In German: Baltic Dry Index crasht
– Baltic Dry Index (Wikipedia)

US to be CUT OFF from World – Baltic Dry Index Falls 93%

Source: YouTube

International passenger traffic fell in December by 4.6 per cent. Iata said the drop was less dramatic than in cargo, as volumes had been supported by year-end leisure travel that had been booked in advance.