AIG May Double Some Salaries With Retention Payments

Message to US taxpayers: “We will get our bonuses….and you will pay for it!”
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Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc., whose bonuses and perks drew fire from lawmakers after the insurer accepted a federal bailout, will make special retention payments that more than double the salaries of some senior managers, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Some executives among 130 recipients will get more than $500,000, about 200 percent of their salaries, to stay through 2009, said the person, who declined to be named because the information hasn’t been publicly disclosed. An undetermined number of lower-paid employees will also get cash awards to dissuade them from quitting, the person said.

“It seems like more than what you’d need to pay to get people to stick around,” said David Schmidt, a senior consultant at executive pay firm James F. Reda & Associates. “Nobody’s hiring, so where are you going to go?”

Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy is encouraging top employees at AIG subsidiaries to remain so the units retain their value while he seeks buyers. The New York-based company is selling businesses, including its U.S. life insurance and retirement services operations, to repay loans in a $152.5 billion government rescue of AIG, which had a record $37.6 billion in net losses so far this year.

Best Interest

“We have to hold on to the talented people running our businesses,” said AIG spokesman Nicholas Ashooh, adding that many managers have lost much of their life savings. The executives “have deep business relationships that are not easily duplicated,” he said today in an e-mail. “Our competitors have been trying to hire them for years.”

Read moreAIG May Double Some Salaries With Retention Payments

Colossal Financial Collapse: The Truth behind the Citigroup Bank “Nationalization”

On Friday November 21, the world came within a hair’s breadth of the most colossal financial collapse in history according to bankers on the inside of events with whom we have contact. The trigger was the bank which only two years ago was America’s largest, Citigroup. The size of the US Government de facto nationalization of the $2 trillion banking institution is an indication of shocks yet to come in other major US and perhaps European banks thought to be ‘too big to fail.’

The clumsy way in which US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, himself not a banker but a Wall Street ‘investment banker’, whose experience has been in the quite different world of buying and selling stocks or bonds or underwriting and selling same, has handled the unfolding crisis has been worse than incompetent. It has made a grave situation into a globally alarming one.

‘Spitting into the wind’

A case in point is the secretive manner in which Paulson has used the $700 billion in taxpayer funds voted him by a labile Congress in September. Early on, Paulson put $125 billion in the nine largest banks, including $10 billion for his old firm, Goldman Sachs. However, if we compare the value of the equity share that $125 billion bought with the market price of those banks’ stock, US taxpayers have paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could have bought for $62.5 billion, according to a detailed analysis from Ron W. Bloom, economist with the US United Steelworkers union, whose members as well as pension fund face devastating losses were GM to fail.

Read moreColossal Financial Collapse: The Truth behind the Citigroup Bank “Nationalization”

The global economy is being sucked into a black hole

This Is Not A Normal Recession

Moving on to Plan B

“The Winter of 2008-2009 will prove to be the winter of global economic discontent that marks the rejection of the flawed ideology that unregulated global financial markets promote financial innovation, market efficiency, unhampered growth and endless prosperity while mitigating risk by spreading it system wide.” Economists Paul Davidson and Henry C.K. Liu “Open Letter to World Leaders attending the November 15 White House Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy”

The global economy is being sucked into a black hole and most Americans have no idea why. The whole problem can be narrowed down to two words; “structured finance”.

Read moreThe global economy is being sucked into a black hole

Financials need at least $1 trillion: analyst


Pedestrians are reflected in the window of a Citibank branch in Hong Kong’s financial Central District November 18, 2008. REUTERS/Bobby Yip

(Reuters) – The U.S. financial system still needs at least $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion of tangible common equity to restore confidence and improve liquidity in the credit markets, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller said.

Eight financial companies — Citigroup Inc, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, American International Group Inc, Bank of America Corp and GE Financial — are in greatest need of capital, he said.

“Debt or TARP capital is not true capital. Long-term debt financing is not the solution. Only injections of true tangible common equity will solve the current crisis,” he said in a note dated November 19.

Currently, the U.S. financial system has $37 trillion of debt outstanding, he noted.

Combined, these eight companies have roughly $12.2 trillion of assets and only $406 billion of tangible common capital, or just 3.4 percent, the analyst said in his note to clients.

Miller said these institutions need somewhere between $1 trillion and $1.2trillion of capital to put their balance sheets back on solid ground and begin to extend credit again, given their dependence on short-term funding and the illiquid nature of their asset bases.

Read moreFinancials need at least $1 trillion: analyst

Revised AIG Terms Begin Treasury Transfusions to ‘Zombie’ Firms


A man exits the American International Building, home to the headquarters of American International Group (AIG), in New York, Nov. 10, 2008. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — The revised bailout of American International Group Inc. marks a new phase in the government’s effort to shore up financial markets: It’s the first time cash from the rescue fund Congress created last month has been committed to a failing company.

The Federal Reserve, which saved the insurer from collapse two months ago with an $85 billion loan, yesterday reduced that loan and offered lower rates, while the Treasury chipped in $40 billion from its bank-rescue fund to buy preferred shares. The new terms represent a departure for Secretary Henry Paulson, who until now has said he only wants to invest Treasury funds in “healthy” firms.

Taxpayers are “keeping the zombie alive,” said Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at hedge fund Cumberland Advisors and former director of research at the Atlanta Fed. “We keep getting deeper and deeper into these holes.”

The shift is likely to vastly expand political demands for saving dying companies in the name of financial or economic stability. The administration of President-elect Barack Obama may soon have to consider credit or capital injections for other insurers, automakers, even retailers as the U.S. slides deeper into what could be the worst recession in a quarter-century.

“Are you going to do General Motors and Ford, and, if you do those, are going to go on and do retailers?” said William Isaac, former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and now chairman of the Secura Group LLC. “ Where does it stop? That is a very difficult decision we are going to face as a country.”

AIG’s Losses

Read moreRevised AIG Terms Begin Treasury Transfusions to ‘Zombie’ Firms

Fed refuses to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.

“The collateral is not being adequately disclosed, and that’s a big problem,” said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., where he co-manages $17 billion in bonds. “In a liquid market, this wouldn’t matter, but we’re not. The market is very nervous and very thin.”

Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.

Read moreFed refuses to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion

AIG, U.S. May Expand Bailout to $150 Billion, Cut Interest Rate

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) – American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., may get an expanded government rescue package valued at more than $150 billion that includes lower interest rates and more time to repay the debt.

The U.S. will cut the original $85 billion loan that saved the New York-based insurer in September to $60 billion, buy $40 billion of preferred shares, and purchase $52.5 billion of mortgage securities owned or backed by AIG, according to a person familiar with the matter. The funds will help AIG retire part of its credit-default swap portfolio and bolster its securities lending operations, said the person, who declined to be identified because the plan hasn’t been officially announced.

The changes may give Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy more time to salvage AIG, which needed U.S. help to escape bankruptcy after three quarterly losses exceeding $18 billion. Liddy’s plan to repay the original loan by selling units stalled as plunging financial markets cut into their value and forced potential buyers to shore up their own balance sheets.

Read moreAIG, U.S. May Expand Bailout to $150 Billion, Cut Interest Rate

Credit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — The most comprehensive report on unregulated credit-default swaps didn’t disclose bets in the section of the more than $47 trillion market that helped destroy American International Group Inc., once the world’s biggest insurer.

A report by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. doesn’t include privately negotiated credit-default swaps that insurers such as AIG, MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. sold to guarantee securities known as collateralized debt obligations. It includes only a “small fraction” of contracts linked to mortgage securities, according to Andrea Cicione at BNP Paribas SA in London.

New York-based DTCC’s data, released on its Web site Nov. 4, showed a total $33.6 trillion of transactions on governments, companies and asset-backed securities worldwide, based on gross numbers. While designed to ease concerns about the amount of risk banks and investors amassed on borrowers from companies to homeowners, the report may have missed as much as 40 percent of the trades outstanding in the market, Cicione said.

The data are “likely to underestimate the amount of net CDS exposure,” Cicione, who correctly forecast in January that the cost of protecting European companies from default would rise, said in an interview. “A broadening of the coverage to the entire market is what investors really need.”

Read moreCredit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk

AIG Agrees to Freeze Executive Payouts

Halt Comes as New York Attorney General Reviews Insurer’s Actions Before Rescue

NEW YORK — American International Group Inc. agreed Wednesday to freeze some $19 million in payments to its former chief executive, Martin Sullivan, while New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo reviews executive compensation and other expenditures paid out as the company neared collapse earlier this year.

The insurance giant also has agreed not to distribute any funds from its $600 million deferred-compensation and bonus pools of its AIG Financial Products subsidiary, which Mr. Cuomo has said was largely responsible for the company’s near collapse.

The company recently received credit lines of up to $122.8 billion from the federal government, helping it avoid collapse. Last week, AIG had tapped $82.9 billion of those credit lines. Some regulators, including Mr. Cuomo, are troubled by outsized compensation packages being paid to departing executives in the financial industry, particularly if those firms have sought help from the federal government.

“To be clear, it is my position that until the taxpayers are repaid with interest the more than $120 billion that has been used in the rescue financing of AIG, no funds should be paid out of these pools to any executives,” Mr. Cuomo said in a letter Wednesday to Edward M. Liddy, AIG’s chief executive. “As AIG recovers using taxpayer money, these pools should not be used to reward executives ahead of taxpayers.”

Read moreAIG Agrees to Freeze Executive Payouts

Lahde quits hedge funds, thanking “stupid” traders for making him rich.

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) – Andrew Lahde, the hedge fund founder who shot to fame with his small fund that soared 870 percent last year on bets against U.S. subprime home loans, has called it quits, thanking “stupid” traders for making him rich.

In a biting, but humorous letter to investors posted on the website of Portfolio magazine on Friday, Lahde told investors last month he will no longer manage money because his bank counterparties had become too risky.

Lahde ripped his profession in the letter. He noted another hedge-fund manager who recently closed shop and was quoted in The Wall Street Journal as saying: “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” To which Lahde responded, “I could not agree more with that statement.

“The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking,” said Lahde, who according to the website birthdates.com is 37.

“These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.”

Read moreLahde quits hedge funds, thanking “stupid” traders for making him rich.

UK: Government to save HBOS and RBS

Government set to become biggest shareholder in top banks as Japanese weigh bid for Morgan Stanley

THE government will launch the biggest rescue of Britain’s high-street banks tomorrow when the UK’s four biggest institutions ask for a £35 billion financial lifeline.

The unprecedented move will make the government the biggest shareholder in at least two banks.

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), which has seen its market value fall to below £12 billion, is to ask ministers to underwrite a £15 billion cash call.

Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), Britain’s biggest provider of mortgages, is seeking up to £10 billion.

Lloyds TSB, which is in the process of acquiring HBOS in a rescue merger, wants £7 billion, while Barclays needs £3 billion.

The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. This would give time for the market to digest the impact of the moves.

Read moreUK: Government to save HBOS and RBS

Lehman Credit-Swap Auction: Biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.


A woman speaks on a cell phone inside the headquarters of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., in New York, on Sept. 15, 2008. Photographer: Jeremy Bales/Bloomberg News

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Sellers of credit-default protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will have to pay 91.375 cents on the dollar to settle the contracts, setting up the biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.

An auction to determine the size of the settlement on Lehman credit-default swaps set a value of 8.625 cents on the dollar for the debt, according to Creditfixings.com, a Web site run by auction administrators Creditex Group Inc. and Markit Group Ltd. The auction may lead to payments of more than $270 billion, BNP Paribas SA strategist Andrea Cicione in London said.

While the potential payout is higher than 87 cents on the dollar suggested by trading in Lehman’s bonds yesterday, sellers of protection have probably written down their positions and put up most of the collateral required, said Robert Pickel, head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. More than 350 banks and investors signed up to settle credit-default swaps tied to Lehman. No one knows exactly who has what at stake because there’s no central exchange or system for reporting trades.

Read moreLehman Credit-Swap Auction: Biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.

Paulson: “Some financial institutions will fail.”

Dow slides 189 points despite global interest rate cuts

Dow Jones Industrial Average falls for six successive days, losing 14.7% of its value


Specialists check a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP

A gloomy day on Wall Street ended with another plunge in stocks after the US treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, warned that financial “turmoil” will not end soon and that more banks are likely to bite the dust.

Cuts in interest rates around the world failed to provide any lasting cheer as the fell by 189 points to 9,258. The index has fallen for six successive days, losing 14.7% of its value, amid signs of weariness and capitulation among investors.

Leading US retail chains including Target and JC Penney produced poor trading figures, fuelling concerns of a high-street slowdown. America’s largest aluminium producer, Alcoa, saw its shares slide by 15% as it cut back on capital spending after a dive in profits.

At a press conference to provide details of the US government’s $700bn bail-out package, the treasury secretary said it would be several weeks before the treasury is ready to begin cleaning up banks’ balance sheets by buying distressed mortgage-related assets.

In a prepared statement, Paulson used the word “turmoil” seven times to describe the financial environment and he made efforts to limit expectations on the rescue package: “One thing we must recognise – even with the new treasury authorities, some financial institutions will fail.”

Read morePaulson: “Some financial institutions will fail.”

AIG Executives Blow $440,000 After Getting Bailout


View from the Lobby Lounge Terrace

If you’d just gotten a government bailout, you might be tempted to hold a retreat at a nice California hotel — and that’s exactly what American International Group (AIG: 3.51, -0.36, -9.30%) executives did.

The committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. to address and examine downfall of AIG, the world’s largest insurance company. The committee planned to discuss the financial excesses and regulatory mistakes that led to AIG’s government bailout.

One of the items discussed was AIG’s expenditure of $440,000 for a corporate retreat at the St. Regis Monarch Beach resort in Los Angeles, Calif. These funds were spent on Sept. 22, a week after the Federal Reserve extended an $85 billion emergency loan to AIG to keep it from going bankrupt due to insurance liabilities.

Click here to see the full hotel bill

Read moreAIG Executives Blow $440,000 After Getting Bailout

The Dollar is Doomed

When the precious metals were smashed out of nowhere and the dollar started climbing this summer I became very worried. I didn’t question my conviction that commodities are in a bull market, or that precious metals in particular are undervalued. I felt something sinister was at work. Neither move was justified on a fundamental level. I assumed that something very bad was about to happen and the metals needed to be brought lower in advance of the bad news.

Now we have a glimpse at the ugly consequences foreseen by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve. In early September, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized with a financial commitment of USD$200 billion from the taxpayers. Incredibly, the loan limits at the former GSEs were raised from $417,000 to $729,750 in March when it was more than obvious these institutions needed to be reined in. Like most bailouts and bank failures, this one was announced on a weekend to limit the impact on the stock markets.

As I mentioned in last month’s issue, Treasury Secretary Paulson was under severe pressure to act, as the Chinese started selling Fannie and Freddie bonds while threatening further retribution. Common shareholders were left with nothing, while bondholders like Pimco and Asian central banks benefited. The small investor was stung again, as taxpayer dollars were used to bail out foreigners and wealthy Americans in a policy that Jim Rogers terms “socialism for the rich.”

Unfortunately, $200 billion is just the tip of the iceberg. As the government has assumed responsibility for Fannie and Freddie’s $5.4 trillion in liabilities, the Congressional Budget Office correctly states that these institutions “should be directly incorporated into the federal budget.” The Bush Administration has strongly opposed this move.

Read moreThe Dollar is Doomed

The Elephant in the Room: Credit Default Swaps

Studies show that people often fear the wrong things. We are terrified of things which probably won’t hurt us, but blissfully unconcerned with things that might really kill us (see this, this and this). So we put a tremendous amount of energy into solving non-problems, and get blindsided by things that we don’t know about or which we are too afraid to even think about.

The same applies to the economic crisis.

For example, the market for credit default swaps is larger than the entire world economy.

Credit default swaps – which were largely responsible for bringing down Bear Stearns, AIG, WaMu and other mammoth corporations – are now being taken out against the U.S. government.

So you’d think that politicians trying to prop up the teetering U.S. economy would want to cancel credit default swaps, or at least declare their value is somewhere near zero.

Nope . . . not even on their discussion list, even though it is the real economic crisis.

Instead, they are proposing things which most experts say will actually harm the economy.

Call congress and tell them to stop their political posturing, stop ignoring the derivatives elephant in the room, and either do something useful or nothing at all.

Posted by George Washington at 1:08 PM
Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Source: George Washington’s Blog

FBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown

WASHINGTON: The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration, The Associated Press has learned.

Two law enforcement officials said Tuesday the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and insurer American International Group Inc. Additionally, a senior law enforcement official said Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. also is under investigation.

The inquiries will focus on the financial institutions and the individuals that ran them, the senior law enforcement official said.

Read moreFBI investigating companies at heart of meltdown

Ron Paul: Bailouts will lead to rough economic ride

By Ron Paul
Special to CNN


Rep. Ron Paul says the government’s solution to the crisis is the same as the cause of it — too much government.


(CNN)Many Americans today are asking themselves how the economy got to be in such a bad spot.

For years they thought the economy was booming, growth was up, job numbers and productivity were increasing. Yet now we find ourselves in what is shaping up to be one of the most severe economic downturns since the Great Depression.

Unfortunately, the government’s preferred solution to the crisis is the very thing that got us into this mess in the first place: government intervention.

Read moreRon Paul: Bailouts will lead to rough economic ride

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been put under Federal control


Morgan Stanley headquarters in New York

Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been put under Federal control as part of a package aimed at rescuing the US finance system.

The move not only puts the two financial services giants under the direct supervision of bank regulators but also gives the Fed the power to force the banks to raise additional capital.

The US administration wants to prevent the collapse of two of Wall Street’s remaining investment banks after the fall of Lehman Brothers and the government-funded bailouts of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and global insurer AIG.

Read moreGoldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been put under Federal control

Dollar May Get `Crushed’ as Traders Weigh Up Bailout


U.S. one dollar bills are displayed for a photograph in New York, April 15, 2008. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson‘s plan to end the rout in U.S. financial markets may derail the dollar’s three-month rally as investors weigh the costs of the rescue.

The combination of spending $700 billion on soured mortgage-related assets and providing $400 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds will boost U.S. borrowing as much as $1 trillion, according to Barclays Capital interest-rate strategist Michael Pond in New York. While the rescue may restore investor confidence to battered financial markets, traders will again focus on the twin budget and current-account deficits and negative real U.S. interest rates.

``As we get to the other side of this, the dollar will get crushed,” said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world’s biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion.

Read moreDollar May Get `Crushed’ as Traders Weigh Up Bailout

Treasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration sought unchecked power from Congress to buy $700 billion in bad mortgage investments from financial companies in what would be an unprecedented government intrusion into the markets.

Through his plan, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson aims to avert a credit freeze that would bring the financial system and the world’s largest economy to a standstill. The bill would prevent courts from reviewing actions taken under its authority.

“He’s asking for a huge amount of power,” said Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University. “He’s saying, `Trust me, I’m going to do it right if you give me absolute control.’ This is not a monarchy.”

Read moreTreasury Seeks Asset-Buying Power Unchecked by Courts!

Financial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable


Hard times: central banks have acted to avoid a repeat of 1929

So, here we are – the start of a new world order. After the tumultuous events of the last fortnight, the global economic landscape will never look the same again.

Power has tangibly shifted – away from the United States and the Western world generally, and towards the fast-growing giants of the East. That’s been happening for some years now.

But September 2008 marks the moment when the scale of our excesses, the extent of our debts and the moral bankruptcy of our financial regulatory system finally began to be truly exposed.

Read moreFinancial crisis: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable

IT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

“I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.”
– Sir Isaac Newton, after losing a fortune in the South Sea bubble

Something extraordinary is going on with these government bailouts. In March 2008, the Federal Reserve extended a $55 billion loan to JPMorgan to “rescue” investment bank Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, a highly controversial move that tested the limits of the Federal Reserve Act. On September 7, 2008, the U.S. government seized private mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and imposed a conservatorship, a form of bankruptcy; but rather than let the bankruptcy court sort out the assets among the claimants, the Treasury extended an unlimited credit line to the insolvent corporations and said it would exercise its authority to buy their stock, effectively nationalizing them. Now the Federal Reserve has announced that it is giving an $85 billion loan to American International Group (AIG), the world’s largest insurance company, in exchange for a nearly 80% stake in the insurer . . . .

The Fed is buying an insurance company? Where exactly is that covered in the Federal Reserve Act? The Associated Press calls it a “government takeover,” but this is not your ordinary “nationalization” like the purchase of Fannie/Freddie stock by the U.S. Treasury. The Federal Reserve has the power to print the national money supply, but it is not actually a part of the U.S. government. It is a private banking corporation owned by a consortium of private banks. The banking industry just bought the world’s largest insurance company, and they used federal money to do it. Yahoo Finance reported on September 17:

Read moreIT’S THE DERIVATIVES, STUPID! WHY FANNIE, FREDDIE AND AIG ALL HAD TO BE BAILED OUT

The Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households

As a trader, I stopped getting disgusted at government manipulation of markets several years ago, didn’t pretend it wasn’t happening, just tried to find when it was coming. I decided to develop an indicator that would tell me when the probability was extremely high that the Master Planners would intervene. That approach has served us well, and that indicator is known as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Indicator. It flashed a new “buy” signal Monday, September 15th at the close, rising above positive + 20.00, warning that the decline from August 11th was terminal. The Industrials have risen 565 points since that buy signal. When this measure rises above positive + 20.00, it is usually early, but very right, an early warning indicator telling us to enjoy the decline for a few more trading days but get ready for a spike rally.

The current government market intervention (“manipulation” is probably a more appropriate word) that transpired the past two weeks, reaching crescendo Thursday on a rumor, and Friday on an announcement, is one of the most dramatic since the 1930’s. It really puts into question the notion of U.S. markets being under capitalism, not socialism. The government nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week, announced its intent to nationalize AIG, a component of the Dow 30, this week, and then pulled out all the stops with the Paulson manifesto Friday. Not sure why he didn’t nationalize Lehman Bros, unless it was personal, as he came from competitor Goldman Sachs, and enjoyed watching them declare bankruptcy. Okay, maybe I am a bit cynical — maybe.

Before getting into market performance and the forecast, let’s cover what we know about this historic redefining of the rules of the game that Paulson has placed on the table for Congress to consider next week:

Read moreThe Paulson Manifesto Will Fail Because It Fails American Households