Economy

“Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers”

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Sure!

crying arab

–  “Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers” (ZeroHedge, Dec 17, 2014):

Most commentators remain in a state of denial about the enormity of the price fall underway. Some, failing to understand the powerful forces now unleashed, even believe prices may quickly recover. Our view is that oil prices are likely to continue falling to $50/bbl and probably lower in H1 2015, in the absence of OPEC cutbacks or other supply disruption. Critically, China’s slowdown under President Xi’s New Normal economic policy means its demand growth will be a fraction of that seen in the past. This will create a demand shock equivalent to the supply shock seen in 1973 during the Arab oil boycott. Today’s ageing Boomers mean that demand is weakening at a time when the world faces an energy supply glut. This will effectively reverse the 1973 position and lead to the arrival of a deflationary mindset…. Prices have so far fallen $40/bbl from $105/bbl since we first argued in mid-August that a Great Unwinding was now underway. And there have been no production cutbacks around the world in response, or sudden jumps in demand. So prices may well need to fall the same amount again.

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Western Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities

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– Western Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

As Zero Hedge first reported today, shortly before noon one (and subsequently more) FX brokers advised clients that any existing Ruble positions would be forcibly closed out because “western banks have stopped pricing USDRUB“, over concerns of Russian capital controls. Ironically, it was this forced liquidation of mostly short RUB positions that pushed the RUB higher, which in turn had a briefly favorably impact on energy commodities and risk assets, as the market had by then perceived the Ruble selloff as excessive. Of course, since nothing had actually changed aside from a temporary market technical, the selloff promptly resumed into the close of trading once the market finally understood what we had explained hours previously.

And unfortunately for the bulls, various falling knife-catchers, and those who hope the Russian situation will stabilize imminently with or without capital controls, it appears things in Russia are about to get a whole lot worse because as the WSJ reports, the next driver of the Russian crisis is likely to come from within the banking system itself because “global banks are curtailing the flow of cash to Russian entities, a response to the ruble’s sharpest selloff since the 1998 financial crisis.”

Presenting Russia’s banks: now cut off from the outside world as the second cold war goes nuclear, at least when it comes to the financial system:

Read moreWestern Banks Cut Off Liquidity To Russian Entities

Outspooking The Lehman Apocalypse: Could A Russian Default Be In The Cards?

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FYI.

– Outspooking The Lehman Apocalypse: Could A Russian Default Be In The Cards? (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

Via Mint – Blain’s Extra Porridge,

“Nazhmite Lyubuyu Stavku…“

Extra Comment – this might be getting serious.

russia-cds

Russia’s markets have been spanked hard despite last night’s hike. 19% currency crash and 13% down stocks in a session. Ouch! Cumulatively, over the past few weeks stocks, oil and the Ruble are off 50% plus, and bonds off 40%. This morning felt like free-fall. Expect more action from the Russians to stave off economic catastrophe… imminent capital controls are rumoured, but markets are demonstrating a massive loss of confidence.

Lots of old market hands are talking about how its similar to the Russia default and crash of ‘98 all over again.. Actually.. its worse.

Much worse.

Read moreOutspooking The Lehman Apocalypse: Could A Russian Default Be In The Cards?

The Russian Ruble Is Hereby Halted Until Further Notice

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– The Russian Ruble Is Hereby Halted Until Further Notice (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

Earlier, we reported that various currency brokers such as FXCM and FxPro, would – as a result of the soaring liquidity in the USDRUB pair – suspend trading in the Russian Ruble (while other merely hiked margins to ridiculous levels). It appears things have escalated again, and as FXCM just reported, instead of just politely advising clients not to open new USDRUB position tomorrow, it has advised anyone long, or short, the USDRUB that their positions will be forcibly shut in moments.

FXCM_0

So for those curious why there appears to be a collapse in Ruble volatility in the past few hours which in turn has sent both stocks and crude soaring, the answer is simple: nobody is trading it!

And this is what happened following the post: as soon as all those short the RUB (long USDRUB) realized they have to take profits, the USDRUB tumbled some 500 pips (!) in the process sending stocks surging.

usrub halted

h/t @Paul_Courtney

 

It’s Not Just Russia: Middle East In FREEFALL, Biggest Plunge In 6 Years

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– It’s Not Just Russia: Middle East In Freefall, Biggest Plunge In 6 Years (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

Dubai’s Financial Market General Index is now down 40% since the peak in oil prices in June this year. For now, only Qatar is clinging to gains year-to-date as the rest of the Middle Eastern equity markets give up 30-60% gains from mid-year and tumble to negative. Dubai and Abu Dhabi alone are down over 8% since Friday. Saudi Arabia is down 7.3% today – the biggest drop in 6 years.

Saudi Arabia’s worst day in 6 years

saudi-arabia

Read moreIt’s Not Just Russia: Middle East In FREEFALL, Biggest Plunge In 6 Years

‘The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble’

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– “The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble” (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

Dear Russian Ruble traders, please find a different sandbox, because “evil speculators” will no longer be tolerated, first at Forex Capital Markets and soon, everywhere else.

Ruble trading discontinued

And now, unless the selloff in US equity futures is immediately halted, expect the first self-help headline in US markets to strike – as usual – within hours.

* * *

Update: And now FxPro:

Read more‘The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble’

Turmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling

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traders brokers hands on face stock market collapse

– Turmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

For those wondering if the CBR’s intervention in the Russian FX market with its shocking emergency rate hike to 17% overnight calmed things, the answer is yes… for about two minutes. The USDRUB indeed tumbled nearly 10% to 59 and then promptly blew right back out, the Ruble crashing in panic selling and seemingly without any CBR market interventions, and at last check was freefalling through 72 74 76, and sending the Russian stock market plummeting by over 15%.

USDRUB

It is so bad, US equity futures which had jumped earlier on hopes of more Chinese intervention following the latest disastrous Chinese PMI print, as well as a French manufacturing PMI beat (don’t laugh), are back to unchanged.

Read moreTurmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling

Ruble Plummets Losing More Than 20% In A Day, Hitting New Dollar And Euro Lows

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– Ruble plummets losing more than 20% in a day, hitting new dollar and euro lows (RT, Dec 16, 2014):

No end seems to be in sight for the plight of the Russian ruble, which slumped to new record lows against hard currencies Tuesday. The EUR traded at 93.5 against the ruble, and the USD at 75.

The Russian stock market also went haywire, dropping more than 15 percent as of 2:30pm Moscow time, after it dropped 11 percent the day before. Sberbank, the country’s largest lender, lost 17.77 percent, and VTB, the second biggest bank, fell by 14.29 percent. State-owned oil and gas companies Gazprom, Rosneft, and Surgut also saw shares plummet.

The emergency interest rate hike to 17 percent has failed to halt the ruble’s landslide tumble against hard currencies. The rate increase only calmed the ruble temporarily.

Read moreRuble Plummets Losing More Than 20% In A Day, Hitting New Dollar And Euro Lows

We Just Witnessed The Worst Week For Global Financial Markets In 3 Years

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collapse-crash-meltdown

– We Just Witnessed The Worst Week For Global Financial Markets In 3 Years (Economic Collapse, Dec 15, 2014):

Is this the start of the next major financial crisis?  The nightmarish collapse of the price of oil is creating panic in financial markets all over the planet.  On June 16th, U.S. oil was trading at a price of $107.52.  Since then, it has fallen by almost 50 dollars in less than 6 months.  This has only happened one other time in our history.  In the summer of 2008, the price of oil utterly collapsed and we all remember what happened after that.  Well, the same patterns that we witnessed back in 2008 are happening again.  As the price of oil crashed in 2008, so did prices for a whole host of other commodities.  That is happening again.  Once commodities started crashing, the market for junk bonds started to implode.  That is also happening again.  Finally, toward the end of 2008, we witnessed a horrifying stock market crash.  Could we be on the verge of another major one?  Last week was the worst week for the Dow in more than three years, and stock markets all over the world are crashing right now.  Bad financial news continues to roll in from the four corners of the globe on an almost hourly basis.  Have we finally reached the “tipping point” that so many have been warning about?

Read moreWe Just Witnessed The Worst Week For Global Financial Markets In 3 Years

Russia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17%

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20141215_RUB1m

– Russia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17% (ZeroHedge, Dec 15, 2014):

Following the biggest rout to the Ruble in ages, Russia – unlike Mario Draghi – instead of talking the talk decided to walk the bazooka walk and shocked all those long the USDRUB by unleashing an emergency rate hike (at 1 am in the morning) from the recently raised interest rate of 10.50% to… hold on to your hats… 17.00%, a 650 bps increase!

From the press release:

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia has decided to increase from December 16, 2014 the key rate to 17.00% per annum. This decision was driven by the need to limit significantly increased in recent devaluation and inflation risks.

Read moreRussia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17%

Why Russia And China Are Buying Gold, According To An Economics Professor

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Gold-Vault

– Why Russia And China Are Buying Gold, According To An Economics Professor (ZeroHedge, Dec 15, 2014) 

We already know that to at least one, sadly all too prominent, career economist gold is held by central banks simply due to “tradition.” Here is how another professor of economics perceives the value of gold to central banks.

To Joshua Aizenman, a professor of economics and international relations at the University of Southern California, dabbling in gold is mainly an attempt by bankers and officials to send a message to the world — one that signals an appetite for power or that broadcasts a desire to challenge a rival. “I doubt that the Chinese or the Russians actually believe that gold is such a great investment in terms of pure returns,” Professor Aizenman said. “But if they’re trying to suggest that they’re unhappy with the dollar or that they want to become a global player, then gold is very powerful.

“The investment is a symbol,” he explained. “It’s made for political, not financial, gain.”

That explains it: not just tradition, but symbolic tradition. Actually, let’s just combined what all prominent economists have recently said about gold, and we get… a 6000-year-old symbolically traditional bubble.

Source: NYT.

 

WTI Crude Craters To $55 Handle, High-Yield Credit Crashing-er – Goldman Pours More Crude On The Fire: “Oil Prices Can Go Lower For Longer”

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– WTI Crude Craters To $55 Handle, High-Yield Credit Crashing-er (ZeroHedge, Dec 15, 2014):

Having almost touched $59 overnight, WTI crude has collapsed back to a $55 handle, smashing the Ruble lower and high-yield credit spreads higher. US financial stocks are starting to weaken back towards the credit market’s warnings as counterparty risk concerns spread…

…

– Goldman Pours More Crude On The Fire: “Oil Prices Can Go Lower For Longer” (ZeroHedge, Dec 15, 2014):

Slowing the rebalancing and creating further downside risk is a very strong consensus view that this pull back is temporary and that oil prices will quickly rebound as they did in 2009. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, the median WTI forecast for 2016 is $86/bbl (even we forecast it going back to $80/bbl). All of these forecasts are based upon now outdated cost data that is shifting as fast as the price. It is precisely this strong view for a rebound in prices and the behavior it creates, that not only suggests that oil prices can go lower for longer, but also that the new normal is far lower than we thought just one month ago. Instead of optimizing against a lower price environment, many oil producers are trying to position themselves for the rebound in prices

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The Economics of Efficiency: Fake Jobs, Fake Growth, And A Two Class Society

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– The Economics of Efficiency: Fake Jobs, Fake Growth, and a Two Class Society (Dark Bid, Dec 14, 2014):

The most efficient outcome is the one without human involvement. That is the problem of efficiency.

Throughout our entire lives, we have been trained to focus on how to get the most work done in the least amount of time. If we did this, we would feel satisfied. But perhaps we have set ourselves on the path to a meaningless existence.

The Luddites experienced efficiency in the early 1800s. They were skilled textile artisans, but stocking frames, spinning frames, and power looms threatened their way of life. What was their response? If this happened today, they would be called left-wing terrorists. The Luddites burned down mills and destroyed the machines that were replacing them. The word “Luddite” allegedly comes from Ned Ludd, a young man who destroyed two stocking looms in 1779.

Read moreThe Economics of Efficiency: Fake Jobs, Fake Growth, And A Two Class Society

The Devalued American Worker

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Ed Green works several jobs but still doesn’t earn as much as he used to as a bus driver in New York…

– The devalued American worker (The Washington Post, Dec 14, 2014):

The past three recessions sparked a chain reaction of layoffs and lower pay

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. — Midway through the last game of the 2013 Carolina League season, after he’d swept peanut shells and mopped soda off the concourse, Ed Green lumbered upstairs to the box seats to dump the garbage.

Green was already 12 hours into his workday. He rose at dawn to lay tar on the highway. As the sun sank, he switched uniforms and drove to BB&T Ballpark, where he runs the custodial crew for a minor-league baseball team. Now it was dark and his radio was crackling. It was his boss, asking him to head back downstairs. Green walked onto the first-base line and into a surprise. In front of 6,000 fans, the Winston-Salem Dash honored him as the team’s employee of the year.

The crowd applauded. The game resumed. Green walked back upstairs. The trash wasn’t going to empty itself.

Read moreThe Devalued American Worker

Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next

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– Crude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next (ZeroHedge, Dec 14, 2014):

In space, no one can hear you scream… unless you happen to be Venezuela’s (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output “even if oil prices fall as low as $40 a barrel” and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting.

In doing so, OPEC not only confirms that the once mighty cartel is essentially non-existant and has been replaced by the veto vote of the lowest-cost exporters (again, sorry Maduro), but that all those energy hedge funds (and not only) who hoped that by allowing margin calls to go straight to voicemail on Friday afternoon, their troubles would go away because of some magical intervention by OPEC over the weekend, are about to have a very unpleasant Monday, now that the next oil price bogey has been set: $40 per barrell.

Read moreCrude Crash Set To Continue After Arab Emirates Hint $40 Oil Coming Next

Sales Of Silver American Eagles Rise To Record High For Second Consecutive Year

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Silver-American-Eagle

– Sales Of Silver American Eagles Rise To Record High For Second Consecutive Year (ZeroHedge, Dec 14, 2014):

One month ago, shortly after we reported that “Silver Coin Sales At US Mint Soar To Highest In Two Years” we learned that the “US Mint Sells Out Of Silver Eagles Following “Tremendous” Demand.” That, however, did not prevent the mint from selling just about 5 million ounces in the period since the announcement, and as Reuters reported last week, “Strong investor demand lifted American Eagle Silver Bullion coin sales to a record for the second straight year, the U.S. Mint said on Tuesday.”

Silver Bullion coin sales have reached 42.9 million coins so far this year, up from the previous record 42.7 million coins last year, the U.S. Mint said in a release. The coin sales on Dec. 8 reached 495,500, lifting them above the 2013 record, the Mint said.

Reuters added that “silver coin sales fell 40.8 percent in November to 3.43 million ounces” which perhaps was to be expected considering the Mint had just sold out of Eagles and the delay associated with coining more and putting them into inventory.

In any event, since the Reuters announcement, another half a million American Eagles have sold direct from the mint, and the total now stands at an even record-er 43.3 million ounces.

Read moreSales Of Silver American Eagles Rise To Record High For Second Consecutive Year

The Carnage Continues – Middle East Stock Markets Are Bloodbath-ing

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– The Carnage Continues – Middle East Stock Markets Are Bloodbath-ing  (ZeroHedge, Dec 14, 2014):

Following Friday’s US weakness and UAE’s hint that $40 oil is coming next, the crude carnage continues as Middle East markets are crashing. As WSJ reports, the bearish direction of oil prices again spooked investors in Dubai where the DFM General Index finished down 7.6%, extending Thursday’s 7.4% rout. The bloodbath extended across the entire region with Abu Dhabi down 3.6%, Qatar slid 5.9%, Kuwait fell 2.9%, and Saudi Arabia’s market, the largest bourse in the region, retreated 3.3%.

Bloodbath-ing…

20141214_carnage

As one analyst warned:

Read moreThe Carnage Continues – Middle East Stock Markets Are Bloodbath-ing

Is Germany Already Signaling The Complete (Economic) Collapse Of The European Union?

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French-German-Flag

– Is Germany Already Signaling The Complete (Economic) Collapse Of The European Union? (ZeroHedge, Dec 14, 2014):

In an attempt to try to divert a looming economic stagnation in the European Union, some leading German and French economists have launched some plans to try to revive (read: ‘resuscitate’) the economy of the Eurozone by tackling two issues which might have deteriorated the economic situation in the currency bloc.

Enderlein, an associate at a German school of Governance and Pisani, member of a French think thank have announced some ideas focusing on solving the issue of the rigid French labor market and the lack of government spending on infrastructure projects in Germany. This could be the perfect time to push some of these ideas through as the next elections in both countries are still 2.5 years away which means there’s plenty of time to implement new measures and restoring the popularity of the politicians before the next elections.

Read moreIs Germany Already Signaling The Complete (Economic) Collapse Of The European Union?

The Crude Crash Comes To Wall Street: Counterparty Risks Rear Their Ugly Heads Again

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– The Crude Crash Comes To Wall Street: Counterparty Risks Rear Their Ugly Heads Again (ZeroHedge, Dec 13, 2014):

In late 2006, default rates on lower-rate subprime private MBS began to rise considerably. Though not a very transparent market to the mainstream media-watching world, bankers knew trouble was brewing as this had not happened before in such a benign house price decline. Banks, knowing what they had on their books, what they had sold to others, and what that meant for risk, began quietly buying protection on other banks as counterparty risk became a daily worry for desks across Wall Street.

The stocks of US financials continued to rise amid “contained” and “no problem” comments from the status quo but credit spreads for the major US banks kept leaking wider even as stocks rallied… then reality dawned on stocks and the rest is history.

20141213_cparty2

Today, US financial credit spreads (wider) have decoupled once again from stocks (higher) and that divergence began as oil prices started to slump.

Read moreThe Crude Crash Comes To Wall Street: Counterparty Risks Rear Their Ugly Heads Again

Presenting The $303 TRILLION In Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now On The Hook For

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What could possibly go wrong?

From the article:

“The only question is when the next multi-trillion (or perhaps quadrillion now that all global central banks are all in?) bailout takes place.”

The elitists will blow up the entire financial system and you better have water, food, gold, silver, guns, a remote farm, friends and a getaway plan.

– Presenting The $303 Trillion In Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now On The Hook For (ZeroHedge, Dec 12, 2014):

Courtesy of the Cronybus(sic) last minute passage, government was provided a quid-pro-quo $1.1 trillion spending allowance with Wall Street’s blessing in exchange for assuring banks that taxpayers would be on the hook for yet another bailout, as a result of the swaps push-out provision, after incorporating explicit Citigroup language that allows financial institutions to trade certain financial derivatives from subsidiaries that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, explicitly putting taxpayers on the hook for losses caused by these contracts. Recall:

Five years after the Wall Street coup of 2008, it appears the U.S. House of Representatives is as bought and paid for as ever. We heard about the Citigroup crafted legislation currently being pushed through Congress back in May when Mother Jones reported on it. Fortunately, they included the following image in their article:

Screen-Shot-2014-12-05-at-3.32.12-PM-1024x755

Unsurprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street lackey Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs employee who has discovered lobbyist payoffs can be just as lucrative as a career in financial services.

We say explicitly, of course, because taxpayers have always been on the hook implicitly for the next Wall Street meltdown.

Why?

Read morePresenting The $303 TRILLION In Derivatives That US Taxpayers Are Now On The Hook For

Peak Idiocy: CNN Urges Students Not To Pay Down Student Loans, Buy Stocks Instead

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Wow, what a perfect timing for CNN to come up with this story!

This is NOT idiocy, just evil, … pure evil.

Here’s how this will probably end for those students who believe this:

muppets-kermit-dead
You’ll get Goldman Sachsed muppets!

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

– Peak Idiocy: CNN Urges Students Not To Pay Down Student Loans, Buy Stocks Instead (ZeroHedge, Dec 12, 2014):

You know the Central-Bank-driven wealth-creation narrative has gone too far when… CNN Money – the bastion of personal financial advice introduces us to Mohammad Majd, graduate who opines “I changed my entire philosophy on debt. I started making minimum payments on my student loans, picked up a “Stock Investing for Dummies” book, and put whatever extra money I made into the stock market.” It’s great any muppet can win… “It was a really good feeling knowing that I could wipe away my entire student loan debt with just a few mouse clicks.” This is how broken the market (and the mindset) has become…

Via CNN Money,

When Mohammad Madji graduated from Drexel University in 2009 with a degree in engineering, he was 23 and had $200 in his bank account.
In other words, he was like most American college students: Poor and in debt.

Read morePeak Idiocy: CNN Urges Students Not To Pay Down Student Loans, Buy Stocks Instead

Crude Carnage Contagion: Biggest Stock Bloodbath In 3 Years, Credit Crashes

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Always wanted to catch a falling knife?

This is your chance …

Crude Carnage Contagion - Biggest Stock Bloodbath In 3 Years, Credit Crashes

More charts and information here:

– Crude Carnage Contagion: Biggest Stock Bloodbath In 3 Years, Credit Crashes (ZeroHedge, Dec 12, 2014):

We leave it to Jack to explain what happened this week…

Quite a week!!

  • WTI’s 2nd worst week in over 3 years (down 10 of last 11 weeks)
  • Dow’s worst worst week in 3 years
  • Financials worst week in 2 months
  • Materials worst week since Sept 2011
  • VIX’s Biggest week since Sept 2011
  • Gold’s best week in 6 months
  • Silver’s last 2 weeks are best in 6 months
  • HY Credit’s worst 2 weeks since May 2012
  • IG Credit’s worst week in 2 months
  • 10Y Yield’s best week since June 2012
  • US Oil Rig Count worst week in 2 years
  • The USDollar’s worst week since July 2013
  • USDJPY’s worst week since June 2013
  • Portugal Bonds worst week since July 2011
  • Greek stocks worst week since 1987

…

No Hindenburg Omen today but it appears the Dow & S&P are pressing down to test their 50DMAs…

20141212_EOD14

…

Will Oil Kill The Zombies?

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– Will Oil Kill The Zombies? (The Automatic Earth, Dec 12, 2014):

Oil producer Russia hikes rates to 10.5% as the ruble continues to plunge, while fellow producer Norway does the opposite, and cuts its rates, but also sees its currency plummet. As Greek stocks lose another 7.35% after Tuesday’s 13% loss on rumors about what the left leaning Syriza party will or will not do if it wins upcoming elections, and virtually anonymous Dubai drops 7.42%. We all know the story of the chain and its weakest link, and beware, these really still ARE global markets.

Meanwhile someone somewhere saved WTI oil from falling through the big, BIG, $60 limit for most of the day Thursday, and then it went south anyway. And that brings to mind the warnings about what would, make that will, happen to high yield energy junk bonds. Of which there’s a lot out there, but not much is being added anymore, that market has been largely shut to companies, especially in the shale patch. So how are they going to finance their fracking wagers? Hard to see.

And something tells me this Bloomberg piece is still lowballing the debt issue, though I commend them for making the link between shale and Fed ‘stimulus’ policies, something all too rare in what passes for press in the US these days.

Fed Bubble Bursts in $550 Billion of Energy Debt

Read moreWill Oil Kill The Zombies?