– Is China’s ‘Dumping’ Driving US Treasury Yields Higher?:
https://archive.is/4U69u
Tonight’s TIC data held few surprises and nothing of significant note, but it got us thinking…
For the 9th month of the last 11, China’s Treasury holdings declined in February (the latest TIC data), dropping by $22.7BN. Additionally, it has now been 24 of the last 28 months that China’s Treasury holdings have declined, now back at practically its lowest level since June 2009…
…
While we are acutely aware of the fact that ‘correlation is not causation’, one would find it hard to argue that the practically perfect concomitance of China’s Treasury holdings and the yield of the US 10Y Treasury note over the past three years makes us wonder (in our out-loud voices), if – away from The QT, The FedSpeak, the macro-economy, the geopolitical crises, the AI-hype, the growth scares – if it’s not just all a well-managed (slow and steady) liquidation of China’s (still massive) US Treasury holdings…
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