– Goldman’s Former Head Of Housing Research Predicts Housing Crash, Recession Within Three Years (ZeroHedge, Sep 17, 2014):
When a former Goldman executive and the prior head of its housing research team comes out with a shocking analysis so contrary to what the same individual would do in his “former life” when he would be extolling the “inevitable” rise of home prices from here to eternity and beyond, and also throw in an open letter to none other than president Obama, predicting at least a 15% crash in home prices in the next three years, a move which would without debt catalyze the next US recession, it is time to pay attention. Meet Joshua Pollard, who in February 2009 took over coverage of US Housing at Goldman Sachs. His point, in short: “House prices are 12% overvalued today. They have already started to decline. Today’s misvaluation matches the excess of 2006-07, just before the Great Recession… 5 of the last 7 US recessions were led by a weakening housing market… I am lamentably confident that home prices will fall by 15% within three years.” Or, as some may call it, crash.
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Recession within 3 years? We never got out of the last one.
Currently, we have:
100 million working age Americans unemployed
53 million Americans unemployed in dead end jobs.
Interest rates for mortgages have better than tripled this year making home ownership out of the reach of millions more. For every point a loan goes up, the monthly payment increases 13%. Right now, they are all well over 5%.
The entire population is 335 million, meaning that half the population is suffering endless misery today. They are not in the real estate market.
Housing prices decline? The greedy guts have kept millions of foreclosed homes off the market in order to pump up the dead market.
The investor groups that own so many homes put them up for sale at inflated prices. The real sale prices are far lower, but we don’t hear about it.
When 153 million Americans are out of work, or working part time, the real buying market is pretty slim.
The FED is stopping its purchase of US debt and treasuries in November, far sooner than promised a few months ago. The FED has been carrying 86% of the interest on the national debt, keeping the debt current.
How will their withdrawal from the US market affect that?
If they stop paying on the national debt, the US is in deep trouble…….starting in November.
This guy is talking through his hat. The real estate market has never recovered regardless of what the talking heads on US propaganda says………and the only way it can go is down.
Prices on food, energy and other essentials have gone through the roof.
That guy needs to wake up.