Q1 Productivity Collapsed Most In Over 60 Years … Looks Likely To Be Revised Down To Almost -6% (Annualized)

–  Q1 Productivity Collapsed Most In Over 60 Years; Goldman Fears Consequences (ZeroHedge, July 16, 2014):

The official measure of Q1 productivity growth currently looks likely to be revised down to almost -6% (annualized) – the worst in almost 70 years. As Goldman points out, even on a longer-term basis, the 4-, 8-, and 12-quarter trends are all in a 0.2%-0.6% range when the Q1 estimates are included, dramatically below consensus 2% estimates of the long-term trend. While Goldman notes productivity is a very noisy series, because it is calculated as the difference between noisy GDP numbers and noisy hours worked numbers; if these numbers are an accurate representation of the long-term trend, the implications for the long-term growth in US living standards would be very negative.



Of course, it wouldn’t be Jan Hatzius if Goldman didn’t end on an optimistic note…

There are good reasons to expect further improvement in productivity growth over the next few years. In particular, stronger business investment is likely to boost the growth rate of the capital stock and therefore the contribution of capital deepening to productivity growth.

Whether this will be enough to boost the productivity trends over the cycle as a whole to our longer-term estimate of 2% or a slightly lower number is admittedly less clear.

3 thoughts on “Q1 Productivity Collapsed Most In Over 60 Years … Looks Likely To Be Revised Down To Almost -6% (Annualized)

  1. Our entire world is collapsing, and all the government and TV, radio and many US sponsored websites all tell lies. Less than half the world uses the dollar any longer because there is nothing behind it. The movement started in 2010, it is only in the last month China and Russia have finally gone public about it.
    Obama putting sanctions on nations that stopped using the dollar four years ago is close to insane. He keeps trying to start wars to divert people from the truth, the US is sliding downhill fast, he is looking for a way to divert people from the truth.
    I see no future for us. Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa joined together to put together $100 billion of their own currencies together to cut off reliance on western currencies. The real war has been economic, it has been going on since 2010, and the US has not taken notice until now. Now, it is too late.
    As it stands, Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, many middle eastern countries, even the Saudis are moving away from us, many Central American and South American nations no longer use the dollar. Electronic currencies have made it possible for all nations to use their own currencies, a world reserve currency is no longer needed, it is obsolete. Electronic currencies translates the value of each currency at the time of transaction, making conversion to any other currency obsolete.
    The US has used and abused it’s position as world reserve currency to the point the world found alternative ways to do business, and no longer need us.
    We are on the losing side this time, and that is going to be a new experience for all Americans……we are not used to losing. As long as the EU stays with us, it will prevent our currency from collapse, but it is losing value, thus the inflated prices for everything. Food and energy have become very expensive, and we have no way to work with the inflating numbers.

  2. 1944 would be 70 years; they are still lying. By 1944, our economy was booming from the war, the military had created many civilian jobs for men and women alike…….I think the real amount is from 1935, not 1944. We have been in the depth of a dreadful depression since the crash of 2007. Wages are down to minimum wage for all but a few, and even those few are in danger now. Microsoft laying off 18K more workers is just a beginning. If they keep allowing monopolies to form like this, if there is no uprising from the people demanding the end of such business practices, we are finished.
    As the world reserve currency, we are already finished. We need to have resources for small business to grow, in them is where all new jobs are born….not greedy gut corporations.
    Did you know you need a 4 year college degree to sell cars now? Corporations have taken over multiple agencies, and the day of the individual car lot is dead.
    Yes, there were crooks, but there were also decent players.
    Without opportunity, there cannot be any growth. Working for $12.00 an hour isn’t an opportunity for someone with a college degree, it is corporate exploitation.
    Time to turn off your lying TV news that isn’t and pay attention. Nothing good will happen until then.

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