The Russian Perspective: ‘There Will Be War In Ukraine’


The Russian Perspective: “There Will Be War In Ukraine” (ZeroHedge, March 6, 2014):

With Ukrainians living in the Crimea region voting to join Russia, the West calling for sanctions (well some of the West), boots still on the ground, and markets apparently of the belief that all is well in the world once again, we thought the Russian perspective on the next steps was useful…

Via Sergei Markov of The Moscow Times,

The current crisis is not about Crimea. It is about the rights of Russian-speakers throughout Ukraine whom the Kremlin wants to protect from violence and discrimination. Russia does not want a military intervention in Crimea and does not want to take Crimea from Ukraine.

There is a political solution to this crisis.

First, create a coalition government in Kiev composed of all parties, including those from the east and south of the country. The current government is dominated by anti-Russian extremists from western Ukraine.

Second, Ukraine needs to draft a democratic constitution that has guarantees for Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population that would grant official status to the Russian language and establish the principle of federalism.

Third, presidential and parliamentary elections must be held soon. Independent election observers must play an active role in ensuring that the elections are free and fair. There is a real danger that they will be manipulated by the neo-Nazi militants who de facto seized power in a coup.

If these democratic and peaceful solutions to the crisis in Ukraine are rejected by the opposition forces that have seized power in Kiev, I am afraid that Russia will have no other choice but to revert to military means. If the junta leaders want to avoid war, they need to adopt Moscow’s peaceful and democratic proposals and adhere to them.

Those currently in power in Kiev are carrying out a political strategy that is not so much pro-European as it is anti-Russian, as evidenced by the surprisingly heavy-handed tactics the U.S. and European Union  have employed in Ukraine. In the end, a minority executed a violent coup that removed the democratically elected and legitimate president of Ukraine.

The Kremlin believes that the current Ukrainian leadership will manipulate the elections planned for May 25 to install a single leader or coalition government functioning much as former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili did in Tbilisi. A “Ukrainian Saakashvili” will unleash an even more repressive campaign of intimidation against Russian-speakers, one that over several years would stoke anti-Russia hysteria among the general population.

After that, Kiev may evict Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol and purge Crimea of any Russian influence. Ukraine could easily become a radicalized, anti-Russian state, at which point Kiev will fabricate a pretext to justify taking subversive action against Moscow. This looks especially likely considering that ruling coalition members from the neo-fascist Svoboda and Right Sector parties have already made territorial claims against Russia. They could easily send their army of activists to Russia to join local separatists and foment rebellion in the North Caucasus and other unstable regions in Russia. In addition, Russia’s opposition movement will surely want to use the successful experience and technology of the Euromaidan protests and, with the help and financial support of the West, try to carry out their own revolution in Moscow. The goal: to remove President Vladimir Putin from power and install a puppet leadership that will sell Russia’s strategic interests out to the West in the same way former President Boris Yeltsin did in the 1990s.

The official census puts the Russian minority in Ukraine at 16 percent of the total population, although that number was falsified. The actual number is closer to 25 percent. Surveys indicate that 45 percent of the country’s population speak Russian at home, 45 percent speak Ukrainian and 10 percent speak both languages. In the most recent Gallup survey, when asked in which language they would like to be polled, 83 percent of respondents chose Russian. Taking into account the rural population in western and central Ukraine, about 75 percent of the people, probably speak Russian. Of that 75 percent, only about 10 percent are those in Kiev and a few other major cities who supported the protests. This means that only 35 percent of the population are attempting to impose its will on the remaining 65 percent, using a violent coup to achieve their goals.

Putin made the right decision: He did not to wait for that attack and took preventative measures. Many in the West say the Kremlin’s reactions were paranoiac, but Germany’s Jews also thought the same of leaving the country in 1934. Most of them chose to believe they were safe and remained in Germany even after Hitler came to power. The infamous Kristallnacht took place five years later, one of the first early chapters in the “Final Solution.” Similarly, just four years remain until Russia’s presidential election in 2018, and there is a strong risk that subversive forces within and outside Russia will try to overthrow Putin, in part using their new foothold in Ukraine.

Will there be war in Ukraine? I am afraid so. After all, the extremists who seized power in Kiev want to see a bloodbath. Only fear for their own lives might stop them from inciting such a conflict. Russia is prepared to move its forces into southern and eastern Ukraine if repressive measures are used against the Russian-speaking population or if a military intervention occurs. Russia will not annex Crimea. It has enough territory already. At the same time, however, it will also not stand by passively while Russophobic and neo-Nazi gangs hold the people of Crimea, Kharkiv and Donetsk at their mercy.

Or out another way:

If the extremists who seized power in Kiev do not accept Russia’s democratic proposals, Russia will likely be forced to revert to military means to solve the crisis in Ukraine.

1 thought on “The Russian Perspective: ‘There Will Be War In Ukraine’

  1. With the destabilizing efforts by the west, of course there will be a war. But, Putin will win, and I only pray it is of short duration. The longer it goes, the more the people suffer while greedy gut munitions makers profit. The contract soldiers won’t do so well because Putin has the people behind him willing to fight, they won’t have much need for mercenaries. The other destabilizing sides will, but I hope it ends soon.
    Putin is smart, he has his hand on the pulse of the people, and he will win. China will also be at his back, along with much of the middle east…….the US better stay out of this… won’t end well for us.
    If war breaks out there, prepare for higher interest rates here in the US, and that is going to knock a lot of the greedy guts out of the box……the ones who have been grabbing real estate at pennies on the dollar (including the banks) because their rightful owners could no longer afford to keep them. It will start by raising ARMs, and as the banks feel the pain of empty coffers……..they will raise rates to attract depositors……just as they have in Portugal, Spain, Cyprus, Ireland and other nations with high debt to GDP levels. The US is at 99% debt level to GDP. Russia is in the low 30%, (China claims to be at 6%, but they are lying……..). Real money is drying up fast and more people are holding cash at home because they no longer trust banks. Looking at the numbers, you can find them on……., the US is at the tipping point. Debt now equals intake.
    Where would you rather put your money?
    This has been building since the original crash of 2001. Standard business practice was to take $100 million and leverage it into $100 billion, a 1000:1 ratio. When all that money vanished into the pockets of the profiteers, they started leveraging the leveraged funds…….I will let others do the math, but it is totally unsustainable. Nobody in their right mind would store real money in any nation with such high debt level to income. As it currently stands while jobs continue to vanish and wages sag, the US has no money for anything but paying on their debt…….they have no more disposable income.
    Germany is also in deep trouble. Playing the financial strong man (they had the idea of buying political power in the EU by bailing out nations in trouble), their debt level is even worse. With a weakening Germany, where does the EU go from here?
    The day of play money is about over.
    Hang on to your wallet, the ride is going to get very rough.
    Stirring up this war was the dumbest thing the US has done so far……..
    High interest rates are around the corner.

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