– Is that panic in the air? (Market Watch, August 4, 2011):
Are we seeing the kind of panic selling that contrarians look for in forecasting the end of a decline? You be the judge.
In mid-day trading today, for example, the widely-respected Aden sisters, both prominent technical analysts, emailed clients with advice to sell all equities—after having already reduced their equity exposure earlier this summer.
Specifically, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden wrote, “We now recommend selling all of your U.S. and global stocks, as well as your energy and resource stocks (totaling 30% of your total portfolio), and keep the proceeds in U.S. dollars for now.”
This advice will carry a lot of weight in the marketplace, given their good long-term record. They are ahead of a buy-and-hold in the stock market not only over the last 12 months (6.8% vs. 3.8%) but also over the last ten years (12.1% annualized vs. 3.7%), according to the Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD).
Up until recently, few of the advisers that the HFD tracks have issued such blanket “sell everything” recommendations. Their relatively sanguine attitude towards the decline suggested to contrarians that more downside action was needed before a durable bottom was in place.
With analysts as respected as the Adens now saying to sell everything, it’s not unlikely that many other advisers will quickly follow suit. If so, a robust wall of worry may be soon in place that the market could start climbing back up.