US Companies Cut Estimated 203,000 Jobs, says ADP

Stating the obvious:

Obama warns of more US jobs losses ahead (AFP):
“We anticipate that we’re going to continue to see some job losses in the weeks and months to come,” Obama said ahead of the release of unemployment figures for October on Friday.

The Obama administration (and the Fed) are running the US into the ground:

US: Up to 95.2% Income Tax Rate Needed to Close Deficit in 2010

(Click on image to enlarge.)
Long-term unemployment. (Can’t show this graph often enough.)

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 203,000 jobs in October, according to a private report based on payroll data.

The drop was the smallest in more than a year and followed with a revised 227,000 decline the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. The figures were forecast to show a decline of 198,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The report signals unemployment will keep climbing even after the economy begins to expand, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers may pledge to keep interest rates low for a long time after their meeting today. ADP has overstated the Labor Department’s initial estimate of payroll losses by 103,000 per month on average in the five months to September.

(Yes, BUT the ‘initial estimate’ was and still is always dead wrong:

In the past estimates were too optimistic by 112,000 jobs.
Source: Time to Remove the “L” from “BLS”

I know this is an older article, but it looks like ADP was probably most of the times right on target, whereas BLS was not.)

“The losses, while smaller than in previous months, were nonetheless widespread,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, said on a conference call with reporters. “I’m still expecting to see payroll employment decline probably through the end of the year, not turn up until January or February.”

Stock-index futures extended earlier gains following the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.8 percent to 1,050.2 at 8:47 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year note up to 3.51 percent from 3.47 percent late yesterday.

ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP.

Payroll Forecast

The report comes two days before a Labor Department release that is forecast to show the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent in October, the highest since 1983, while employers cut 175,000 jobs.

Another report today showed employers announced the fewest job cuts in 17 months in October. Planned firings fell 51 percent last month to 55,679 from 112,884 in October 2008, a fifth consecutive year-on-year decline and the largest since July 2006, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said. Announcements were down 16 percent from the prior month.

The economy already has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Today’s ADP report showed a decrease of 117,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Service providers cut 86,000 workers.

Employment in construction fell by 51,000, the 33rd straight monthly drop, while manufacturers cut 65,000 workers.

Breakdown of Firings

Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforce by 53,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, eliminated 75,000 jobs and small companies also decreased payrolls by 75,000, ADP said.

US Airways Group Inc., the smallest full-fare U.S. airline, was among companies cutting staff last month. The Tempe, Arizona-based carrier, said it will cut 1,000 jobs, or about 3 percent of the workforce, and drop some flight routes.

Some companies are adding to their payrolls. Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, said last week it’s recalling 452 workers, the majority of manufacturing employees laid off earlier this year at a company factory in Iowa.

The ADP report is based on data from about 400,000 businesses with 23 million workers on payrolls. ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006.

Last Updated: November 4, 2009 08:47 EST
By Timothy R. Homan

Source: Bloomberg

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